USD/CHF losses further ground following rise in US Unemployment

• USD/CHF continues soft following an unexpected increase in US Unemployment.
• On the positive side for the US, NFPs for June surpassed market expectations.
• With falling inflation in both countries, both the Federal Reserve and the SNB could embrace cuts.

In Friday’s session, the USD/CHF pair softly sailed, with markets dumping further the USD following the release of mixed labor market data in the US.

The center of attention on Friday was the unexpected rise in the US Unemployment Rate to 4.1% from 4%, and an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in June by 206K, surpassing the market expectation of 190K. The rise in NFP follows a revised gain of 218K in May, down from the initially reported 272 K. As for Wage Inflation, indicated by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, decreased to 3.9% from 4.1% YoY, aligning with market forecasts.

This confirmed an overall uncertainty around the health of the labor market and substantially increased market odds for two cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with the September bets reaching 90% according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the Swiss front, market participants adjusted their expectations for a third interest-rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in September after the inflation data announcement on Thursday which slightly declined, pushing the odds over 50%.

USD/CHF technical analysis

The technical outlook now turns somewhat negative in the short term. The currency pair ended a promising six-day streak, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), losing momentum.

The pair is expected to end the week with mild losses, and closing a dip below the Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart. Main supports now lie at the 20-day SMA at 0.8950, while the next immediate resistance has shifted to the 100-day SMA at 0.8990 (former support).

USD/CHF daily chart