The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits sheer strength against major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), in Friday’s American session. The British currency performs strongly as United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak-led-Conservative Party suffered a defeat after remaining in power since 2010 from the Keir Starmer-led-Labour Party in parliamentary elections on Thursday.
Investors expect that an absolute majority of the Labour Party has significantly improved the Pound SterlingÂ’s appeal. A political partyÂ’s outright majority win is considered favorable for its financial markets, unlike when the Tories were in power.
Also, the Pound Sterling would outperform strongly against currencies from the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), which are expected to face pressure due to political uncertainty.
On the monetary policy front, investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) to start cutting interest rates from the August meeting. The next trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for May, which will be published on Thursday, July 11.
The Pound Sterling posts a fresh three-week high at 1.2800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair strengthens after breaking above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2670, plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300. The Cable has now reached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770.
The pair rises above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2695 and 1.2675, respectively, suggesting that the near-term outlook is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises above 60.00. A sustained move above this level would shift momentum towards the upside.Â
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can’t determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
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