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Oh no. Oil prices are now moving up too.

US yields moved 50 basis points last week and although the 10 year yield is down -23 basis points this week. They are still much higher than the 3.86% low yield seen in early April (the current 10 year yield is at 4.27% which is down from 4.59% last week, but up from 3.86% too).

The US stock market is getting tagged with the NASDAQ index now down around -731 points or -4.33%. The S&P index is down 3.12%.

The tariff take home benefit into the US External Revenue Service was promoted as being $2 billion day. The Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that they have collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. It is unsure if that is a total of $500 million or $500 million a day or $500 million since x-date but it seems clear that it’s not $2 billion a day. What if goods from China tariffed at 145% just stop coming in. What will prices (and supply) do if those imports simply don’t make it to the shores of the US? Remember the supply chains from Covid?

The Fed chair did not promote a rate cut today and getting three might be a stretch in 2025 too, with the unemployment rate of 4.2% and the risk of supply shocks and higher inflation with it. It is not like business inventories are spiking.

Now …. we get oil prices up $1.14 or 1.86%. From the low seen on April 9 the price is up 14.26%. Drill baby drill may not be what oil companies in the US want to do or can afford to do?

Meanwhile, this US Rep took a field trip to El Salvador and snapped this shot. If that is a win, I am missing something.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The wheels are coming off the equity market with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq down 4.2%. The market was evidently looking for a nod to rate cuts from Powell and it didn’t come.

Now we’re getting some serious kicking and screaming. USD/JPY has broken the 2025 low and is trading at the worst levels since October as stops are hit in a quick, 70 pip move.

This chart is very much looking like it wants to test 140.00 again and if we don’t get some good news on the earnings front, the Nasdaq is likely to test its lows as well.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause to ‘reciprocal but not really reciprocal’ tariffs led to one of the all-time great Nasdaq rallies as the index soared 10%.

The day afterwards it gave a big chunk back before embarking on a fresh effort to make new highs following a weekend suspension of electronics tariffs. However the administration attempted to walk that back and it’s now looking more like a double top at 17,200.

The Nasdaq Composite is down 3.9% today and trading at session lows. It didn’t get any help from Nvidia’s disclosure that it faces new restrictions on China chip sales in yet-another sign of chaotic policymaking. Shares of NVDA are down 10%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If Canada is able to play its cards right, there are enormous and highly economic long-life oil assets that can be exploited. It would require pipelines to the west coast but there is an increasing national acceptance for those kinds of projects due to antagonism from the United States.

This is just a headline from a wire for the moment but it highlights how China is aggressively trying to shore up trading relationships, particularly for commodities.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the bottom of the hour. Ahead of that, the market is pricing in a 16% chance of a cut in May and a 76% chance of a cut in June.

Waller made a dovish shift this week but other Fed officials have been preaching patience and not looking through tariff price shocks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• High yield 4.810%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.814%.
• Tail -0.4 basis points versus six-month average of +0.8 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.63X vs six-month average of 2.56X
• Directs 12.32% vs six-month average of 17.9%
• Indirects 70.68% vs six-month average of 66.8%
• Dealers 16.99% vs six-month average of 15.3%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that the department has collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. That is woefully short of the $2 billion per day that Pres. Trump repeatedly cites.

If true, how long will it take for Pres. Trump to enact tariffs that truly brings in $2B? (or tries too).

The problem is supplies may never make it to port especially from China. If no goods are coming in, no tariffs can be collected.

If the tariffs are not working in hurting China, what hurts would be things like chip exports into China.

This stuff cannot be good.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The World Bank’s Banga is speaking and says:

• Foreign aid is a temporary method to help challenged countries, but will not be the long-term solution for development

• The right regulatory environment must be created to encourage private investment in developing countries and to create jobs

• The ‘all of the above’ energy strategy will be discussed with the board in June

• The energy strategy will include natural gas, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, wind, and nuclear—but will require board approval

• It’s unclear how much the U.S. or some European countries will contribute to the International Development Association

• There are constructive discussions underway with the U.S. about its continued commitment to the World Bank

The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans, grants, and technical expertise to developing countries with the goal of reducing poverty and promoting sustainable economic development.

USAid which works with the World Bank was briefly shuttered by DOGE measures but it continues to operate as the U.S. government’s primary agency for administering foreign aid and development assistance.

However, there have been ongoing political discussions about potentially restructuring or reducing the scope of USAID. Some proposals have included:

• Merging USAID into the State Department

• Cutting its budget significantly

• Shifting foreign aid strategy toward bilateral deals or strategic investments

But none of these proposals have resulted in the agency being shut down.

USAID continues to:

• Fund global health, food security, and humanitarian relief programs

• Operate missions in over 100 countries

• Collaborate with partners like the World Bank, UN agencies, and NGOs

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fitch is out on global turmoil and says:

• Deep cuts to growth forecast says global trade war escalates.
• Still expects Federal Reserve to wait until Q4 before cutting rates despite deteriorating US growth outlook.
• We now expect deeper rate cuts from ECB and in emerging markets.
• Expect some additional US tariff revenues to be recycled back into US economy over the next 18 months, including through tax cuts.
• We have lowered our 2025 bread oil price assumption by the five US dollars to $65.
• US ‘Liberation Day’ tariff hikes were far worse than expected.

Growth forecast from Fitch now see:

• Fitch has cut world growth in 2025 by 0.4pp and China and US growth by 0.5pp

• U.S. 2025 growth expected at 1.2% annually, but slowing to 0.4% YoY in Q4 2025

• China’s growth forecast to fall below 4% in both 2025 and 2026

• Eurozone growth projected to remain well below 1%

• Global growth expected to drop below 2% in 2025 – the weakest since 2009, excluding the pandemic

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +2553K
• Gasoline -1958K vs -1595K exp
• Distillates -1851K vs -1180K exp
• Refinery utilization -0.4% vs +0.4% expected

Private inventories from the API late yesterday:

• Crude +2400K
• Gasoline -3010K
• Distillates -3160K

This is a decent report with some solid product draws. We’re nearing the end of the inventory building season and the start of driving season. With all the international tensions, global consumers could be taking more road trips this summer.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There was some real optimism about Iran nuclear talks coming out of the weekend but now we are getting fresh US sanctions. The US also changed the venue of negotiations and Iran’s foreign minister is calling that a ‘professional error’, saying that “such a move could be interpreted as a lack of seriousness and good faith”.

WTI crude is up nearly $1 today.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 39

Details:

• Single family 45 vs 43 prior
• Prospective buyers 25 vs 24 prior
• Sales expectations 43 vs 47 prior

There has been some good news for the battered US housing market today as building materials were strong in the retail sales report and now sentiment has picked up. To be far, a reading at 40 is still very close to the bottom of the range since the start of 2024 but at least it’s not worsening.

Regionally:

• Northeast 43 versus 47 last month
• Midwest 43 versus 38 last month
• South 38 versus 39 last month
• West 35 versus 34 last month

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.