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The yen declined against other G-10 and Asian currencies after reports confirmed that foreign exchange issues were not discussed in Wednesday’s U.S.-Japan tariff talks.

• Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month

This helped ease market worries that the Trump administration might target Japan’s currency policies.

Despite this relief, trade uncertainty remains elevated.

• Mizuho Securities said Japan is making “great progress” in negotiations, but the start of formal talks has heightened market sensitivity to a potential “deal or no deal” outcome, increasing volatility.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump will meet with Meloni (all times US Eastern time):

• greets her at midday with lunch to follow straight after
• meeting from 1.05 pm

Be ready for a neww conference and some headlines.

At 4 pm Trump will be signing Exec orders.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Topple on Fed Comments – Nasdaq Down 3%

The major US stock indices all fell in trading overnight as Jerome Powell pushed back on any heightened expectations of rate cuts in the US. The Fed Chair said, “The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.” The Dow dropped 1.73%, the S&P 2.20%, and the Nasdaq dumped 3.07%. Treasury markets focused on the growth comment, with yields dropping down the curve—the 2-year off 7.6 basis points to 3.769%, and the 10-year down 5.7 basis points to 4.276%. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to fall, the DXY trading back towards the annual low, down 0.78% to 99.28. Oil prices spiked on news that the US has issued fresh sanctions on Chinese imports of Iranian oil—Brent up 2.03% to $65.98 and WTI up 2.09% to $62.61—whilst gold continued to break new records, up 3.59% to $3,341.63 an ounce.

Dollar Remains Out of Favour

The US dollar has taken a beating over the last couple of weeks, as President Trump’s higher-than-expected tariffs have led to a large restructuring of portfolios, with investors attempting to digest the implications on the global economy. Normally a safe haven trade in times of global distress, the market has interpreted the US tariffs as leading to much slower growth in the US, and the dollar has fallen swiftly out of favour after an initial rally following “Liberation Day.” In effect, the tariff update backfired for an administration which still favours a strong dollar, and the Liberation was really opening the door of the cage of dollar bears to then smash the market. The DXY now sits close to its annual low again as we approach a low-liquidity long weekend, and unless we see a strong change of direction in the coming days, the dollar could sink further into fresh ranges against most of the majors.

Another Busy Calendar Day to Close the Full Trading Week

Traders are preparing for another busy and volatile day ahead as they continue to battle geopolitical updates and a full macroeconomic event calendar before the long weekend. The Asian session has already seen a slightly higher-than-expected New Zealand CPI print, and now focus will move across the Tasman for Australian employment data later in the session. Investor focus will be firmly on Europe once London opens today, with the ECB due to update the market on its latest rate call. The market is expecting a 25-basis point cut, from 2.65% to 2.40%, but most traders are expecting the volatility to come from updates in the statement and press conference. The New York session sees the usual weekly unemployment data released (expected 225k) alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers, but again, most market participants are keeping a close eye on newswires for more tariff and trade updates to move markets.

The post General Market Analysis – 17/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

China will announce an expansion plan for its service sector on Monday.

It’ll be at a press conference attended by officals from the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the People’s Bank of China.

Chinese equities have steadied today ahead of this.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reporting:

• Trump, in discussions with Japan, brought up increasing its burden on military front, Kyodo reports citing govt source

Complicating the trade discussions a whole lot!

Ishiba & Trump at an earlier meeting

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Employment Change +32.2K

• expected +40K, prior -52.3K

Full-Time Employment +15K

• prior -35.7K

Part-Time Employment +17.2K

• prior -17K

Unemployment Rate 4.1%

• expected 4.2%, prior 4.1%

Participation Rate 66.8%

• expected 67.0%, prior 66.8%

***

An improved report from February, but the added jobs did not match what was expected by the market.

With the unemployment rate still just over 4% the jobs market remains on the tight side.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China foreign ministry, on U.S. tariffs:

• If the United States continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We didn’t get much, well none really, detail from the meeting:

• Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month

Ishiba says economy minister Akazawa reported the talks were constructive.

• talks will not be easy going forward
• Ishiba says he’ll visit the US at an appropriate time time to meet with Trump.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) miss forecasts

+5.4% y/y in March

• expected +14.1%, prior +7.6%

Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and South Korea increased y/y

• Exports to China declined.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade balance data from Japan for March 2025

544.1bn JPY

• expected +485.3bn yen, prior +590.5bn

Exports +3.9%

• expected +4.5%, prior +11.4%

Exports to:

• US +3.1% y/y
• EY -1.1% y/y
• China -4.8% y/y
• Asia +5.5% y/y

Imports +2.0%

• expected +3.1%, prior -0.7%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan inflation indications from a Reuters poll.

• A growing majority of Japanese companies are preparing to raise prices in the face of rising labour and raw material costs

Of the firms polled, 13% said they had already increased prices in the business year that began April 1, while a further 70% said they are considering doing so. The widespread pricing pressure is likely to increase calls for government support to soften the impact on consumers.

Labour shortages and ongoing inflation are also driving wage increases. Nearly 70% of respondents said higher monthly salaries for new recruits were now unavoidable. “Prices are on the rise. The current wage level cannot get us new workers,” said an official at a steelmaker. A manager at a transportation equipment manufacturer added that wage hikes are necessary to attract talent in a country facing a declining birthrate and an ageing population.

Separately, research from Teikoku Databank shows that over 70% of Japanese companies plan to raise starting monthly salaries for new graduates this year, with the average increase coming in at ¥9,114 (about US$64) compared to last year.

Japanese official, including those at the Bank of Japan, will welcome the enws on rising wages and prices.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.