• Maintaining normal communication with US counterparts
• China is open to negotiations on economic, trade areas
• Calls for US to stop threats and blackmail, to resolve issues on basis of mutual respect

This when asked about the notion that Trump says the ball is in China’s court. In essence, they’re throwing the ball back over or at least trying to make sure that the US actually knows that the ball is actually in Trump’s side of the court instead. And so the dance continues..

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX +0.1%
• France CAC 40 -0.5%
• UK FTSE -0.7%
• Spain IBEX -0.5%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.4%

The drop here offsets the gains from yesterday, though the broader market mood is looking a little more positive today. There’s a slight bounce in US futures with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.9% at the moment. That is helping to preserve a calmer tone with the dollar also recovering some ground to start the session.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia gained 32.2k jobs, missing market forecasts of a 39.8k increase. Although the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%, undershooting the estimate of 4.2%, the previous month’s reading was revised lower from 4.1% down to 4.0%. Despite an improvement in the labour market for March, demand for the Aussie dampened as this currency pair slid toward 0.6350 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today and potentially dampen the recent rally in gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia gained 32.2k jobs, missing market forecasts of a 39.8k increase. Although the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%, undershooting the estimate of 4.2%, the previous month’s reading was revised lower from 4.1% down to 4.0%. Despite an improvement in the labour market for March, demand for the Aussie dampened as this currency pair slid toward 0.6350 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

CPI (10:45 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After moderating lower from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (11:50 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 pm GMT)

ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc picked up on Wednesday as USD/CHF fell 1.4%. This currency pair hit an overnight low of 0.8115 before climbing above 0.8150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer inflation in the U.K. eased for the second consecutive month as seen in Wednesday’s report. Headline CPI fell from an annual rate of 2.8% in the previous month to 2.6%, below market forecasts of 2.7%, while the core reading edged lower from 3.5% to 3.4% in March. The largest downward contributions came from categories such as recreation and culture, data processing equipment, and transport. Despite inflation cooling once more, the pound continued to see strong bids as Cable 

came within a whisker of breaking above 1.3300 on Wednesday. However, this currency pair pulled back overnight before tumbling toward 1.3200 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday to mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 basis points (bps) had been cut since last June. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability on the magnitude of tariffs placed significant downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of further monetary easing. The higher uncertainty stemmed from an unclear tariff path by the U.S., prompting the council to present two economic scenarios in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Firstly, should the U.S. limit the scope of its tariffs on Canada, economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily while inflation should hold near the target of 2%. And in the second scenario, should the U.S. proceed with an all-out trade war against Canada and China, the council anticipates a recession this year with inflation rising to 3%. Following the hold on its overnight rate, the Loonie strengthened 0.8% as USD/CAD fell sharply toward 1.3850.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday on the prospect of tighter supply after the White House imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade while some OPEC producers pledged further output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas. Combined with the third consecutive week of higher build as reported by the EIA inventories, WTI oil gained 1.9% as it came within a whisker of $63 per barrel overnight. However, this benchmark briefly dipped under the $62 mark in early trading on Thursday before edging higher to float around $62.20.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The highlight in the European session will be the ECB rate decision, although it’s unlikely that the central bank will surprise the markets in any way. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims which are now even more important given that they could give an earlier signal of deterioration in the labour market. It’s unlikely to see much reaction though unless they make a new cycle high.

12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Announcement

The ECB is
expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The market then
expects at least two more rate cuts by year-end. Interest rates expectations
have been shaped by the ongoing trade war and the recent 90-days pause for
reciprocal tariffs helped to alleviate the aggressive pricing. It’s all
about the trade negotiations now as the data remains old news.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims hover
around cycle highs.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 225K vs. 223K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1872K vs. 1850K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET – Fed’s Barr (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• German DAX futures -0.1%
• French CAC 40 futures -0.2%
• UK FTSE futures -0.4%

There is a balance to be struck with European indices needing to catch up a little to the declines in Wall Street overnight and also the bounce in the risk mood so far today. At the balance, that is pointing to a more neutral open perhaps later in the day. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.9% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior CHF 4.80 billion; revised to CHF 4.74 billion

The Swiss trade surplus expanded in March as exports were seen up 22.2% on the month while imports increased by 19.4% on the month. Swiss watch exports were seen up 1.5% year-on-year in nominal terms to CHF 2.13 billion.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.2%

The decline owes in large part to a fall in energy prices (-2.8%). If you strip that out, German producer prices were actually up 0.2% on the month and also up 1.4% year-on-year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But that’s the market over the past two weeks with respect to flows regarding Trump’s tariffs. There’s just a struggle of confidence in the dollar at the moment on multiple fronts. After the beating yesterday, US futures are holding higher for now with S&P 500 futures up 0.7%. It’s still early in the day but at least there’s a bit of a breather. The dollar is also keeping steadier as such across the board.

USD/CHF is up 0.4% to 0.8162 and keeping off the recent lows just above 0.8100 for now. The pair is already tracking to its lowest since 2011, so it’s tough to pick at support levels from here. For now, there is a minor base as seen above but the downside pressure remains as Trump’s tariffs continue to play out.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen up 0.5% to 142.57 but it’s a minor relief after dipping under 142.00 overnight to its lowest since September last year. EUR/USD is also just down slightly now by 0.3% to 1.1363 on the day. And AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.6336 currently.

We now have to wait on more trade developments in the coming days/weeks to see if market sentiment can really turn. In particular, US-China relations remain the biggest wildcard. But with each passing day that all these tariffs remain in place, risk confidence is slowly being eroded as market players will have to factor in the consequences of the damage to the global economy.

And when we talk about risk confidence in this situation, that also ties back to the dollar.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bearish trend

Pivot: 100.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.1200

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.0949
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1526
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 160.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 158.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8529

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8448
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8662
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.3164

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.3040
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3293
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 184.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 0.8370
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8105
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8597
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 142.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 139.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

 USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3974

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3839
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4063
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and 50% retracements, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6340
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6267

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6416
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6024

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 36,918.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,505.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 20,301.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,475.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 4,878.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 83,233.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 79,497.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,669.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,438.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,765.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 62.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 58.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3242.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3152.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3375.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Thursday 17th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM. The upward momentum gained further traction as sales jumped 1.4% MoM in March, marginally exceeding market expectations of 1.3%. Not only did consumer spending rebound for the second month on the trot, but it also notched the largest increase in retail sales since January 2023, as categories such as motor vehicle and parts sales, building material and garden equipment, and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores led the gains. 

During his speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing while claiming that the Fed can wait for greater clarity before making any moves. He also noted a possible tough situation developing for the Fed in which inflation is pushed higher by tariffs while growth and potentially employment weaken. The outlook has now become extremely uncertain, Powell said, with “fundamental changes” in policy that do not provide businesses and economists with any clear parallels to study. Powell also said the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump were significantly larger than even the highest estimates crunched by the Fed ahead of time. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.9% on Wednesday as it hit an overnight low of 99.17.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

After moderating from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today and potentially dampen the recent rally in gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia is expected to add 39.8k jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 4.1% to 4.2% in March. Should the latest labour force report point to a robust set of figures, the Aussie will likely receive another strong lift.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

CPI (10:45 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After moderating lower from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (11:50 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 pm GMT)

ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc picked up on Wednesday as USD/CHF fell 1.4%. This currency pair hit an overnight low of 0.8115 before climbing above 0.8150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer inflation in the U.K. eased for the second consecutive month as seen in Wednesday’s report. Headline CPI fell from an annual rate of 2.8% in the previous month to 2.6%, below market forecasts of 2.7%, while the core reading edged lower from 3.5% to 3.4% in March. The largest downward contributions came from categories such as recreation and culture, data processing equipment, and transport. Despite inflation cooling once more, the pound continued to see strong bids as Cable 

came within a whisker of breaking above 1.3300 on Wednesday. However, this currency pair pulled back overnight before tumbling toward 1.3200 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday to mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 basis points (bps) had been cut since last June. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability on the magnitude of tariffs placed significant downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of further monetary easing. The higher uncertainty stemmed from an unclear tariff path by the U.S., prompting the council to present two economic scenarios in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Firstly, should the U.S. limit the scope of its tariffs on Canada, economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily while inflation should hold near the target of 2%. And in the second scenario, should the U.S. proceed with an all-out trade war against Canada and China, the council anticipates a recession this year with inflation rising to 3%. Following the hold on its overnight rate, the Loonie strengthened 0.8% as USD/CAD fell sharply toward 1.3850.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday on the prospect of tighter supply after the White House imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade while some OPEC producers pledged further output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas. Combined with the third consecutive week of higher build as reported by the EIA inventories, WTI oil gained 1.9% as it came within a whisker of $63 per barrel overnight. However, this benchmark briefly dipped under the $62 mark in early trading on Thursday before edging higher to float around $62.20.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

While Trump may have hailed “big progress” in talks with Japan yesterday, the tone struck by Ryosei Akazawa wasn’t as optimistic. Japan’s economy minister is the one tasked to lead trade talks and the most he said was that “for our part, we want to do it (make a deal) as soon as possible”. But perhaps the more important detail is this comment:

“We will work to schedule the next consultation to be held within this month. And then, we will continue to hold discussions at the working level in addition to the ministerial level.”

There weren’t much details as to what was discussed, besides the fact that it seemed to not include foreign exchange policy at least.

But the above remark on what’s going to happen next is not very encouraging I would say. Yes, there’s a clear step-by-step process laid out. However, where’s the sense of urgency?

They’ll be speaking again later this month and then after, there will need to be further discussions at the working and ministerial levels. That could drag on for weeks on end. And mind you, this was supposed to be one of the easiest battles to resolve in the tariffs war.

I reckon they might get moving quicker when we move closer to the deadline on the 90-day tariffs pause. But for now, it pretty much sets the tone for everyone else. There are no easy deals.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on what would make him hike rates rapidly
• The weaker yen today – U.S./Japan tariff talks steering clear of FX concerns cited
• RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 2.9% for Q1 2025 (prior was 3.1% y/y in Q4 2024)
• Trump will meet with Italy’s PM Meloni on Thursday, April 17
• China to announce expansion plan for its service sector at a briefing on Monday (April 21)
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Simone Robbers resigns
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says can’t tell right now how tariffs will impact prices
• Trump says brought up military in discussions with Japan (Japan media report)
• BoJ’s Nakagawa says if economic and inflation targets hit, will continue to raise rates
• Australia March 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected) & Employment Change +32.2K
• China: If United States continues to play tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2085 (vs. estimate at 7.3083)
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan’s real interest rate remains very low
• Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
• The Bank of Korea leaves its base rate unchanged at 2.75%, as widely expected
• Singapore March NODX +5.4% y/y (expected +14.1%
• Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month
• Japan March exports +3.9% y/y (expected +4.5%)
• Fed’s Schmid says agricutural sector very nervous about tariffs
• Deutsche Bank ECB preview: Rate cut expected as downside risks build
• More than 70% of Japanese firms are considering price hikes this fiscal year
• New Zealand Q1 CPI +2.5% y/y (expected +2.3%) & +0.9% q/q (expected +0.7%)
• Here’s a Deutsche Bank forecast for EUR/USD to 1.25 (admittedly it’ll take a few years)
• Ford warns that vehicle prices could rise on models produced from May due to Trump tariffs
• Trump says he met with the Japanese delegation on trade
• Goldman Sachs: Strong Asia session gold buying for 8 straight days; 4,500/oz a tail risk
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Apr: Fed Powell does not give in to easing hopes
• What United Airlines said about the strength of the US consumer
• Powell downplayed risk to Fed independence from Trump firings case
• Financial Times reports that Intel will need license to export AI chips to Chinese clients
• US stocks close lower but rally modestly into the close
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday 17 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Plenty to digest from Japan today. Trade data showed exports rose for a sixth consecutive month in March, but the pace of growth slowed markedly. Exports to the U.S. rose just 3.1% year-on-year, down sharply from a 10.5% gain in February. Exports to China fell 4.8%, and shipments to Europe declined 1.1%, adding to worries that Japan’s external sector may struggle in the months ahead. Economists warn that the temporary boost from pre-tariff demand could now give way to a more sustained slowdown.

Meanwhile, the yen weakened after Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa confirmed that foreign exchange policy was not discussed during the latest round of US-Japan trade talks. His remarks helped ease market fears that Japan’s currency practices would come under fresh scrutiny from the Trump administration. US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, also participated in the meeting, with Trump reportedly reiterating that a deal with Japan remains a “top priority.” Trump weighed in with his concerns on militry costs. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba struck a cautious tone in his news cnfernce addressing the talks, warning that negotiations ahead would not be easy.

The cautious backdrop was reinforced by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and policy board member Nakagawa, who maintained that while further interest rate hikes remain likely if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank’s outlook, both highlighted U.S. trade policy as one of the biggest external risks to Japan’s recovery.

Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand reported stronger-than-expected consumer price growth in Q1. Core and trimmed mean inflation measures, though, continued edging down to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 2% target.

In Australia, the March jobs report delivered a partial rebound in employment following a soft February, though the gain fell short of expectations. February’s decline was revised lower. This data point shouldn’t dissuade the RBA from a rate cut at its May 19-20 meeting.

Apart from the yen losing ground, so too did other FX against the dollar. EUR/USD heads towards the European Central Bank rate cut decision later back under 1.1400.

Equities in China steadied. Auhtorities there will be announcing a plan for the country’s services sector on Monday.

To all who are taking a break for Easter, have a great time. To all for who Easter is more than just a break, have a great celebration.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.