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Trump’s latest tweet:

CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!

Someone is going to panic when they see the losses in the market, that’s for sure.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are down 2.4%, which is about 1 percentage point off the lows but still an ugly outcome. I wonder if we start to see some forced selling at the open as well.

If there’s a good bit of news to dwell on, it’s that Cramer on CNBC sounds like he is near a meltdown on TV.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump writes:

TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING
MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT
TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!

He’s presumably talking about tariffs here. I suspect this is a pushback on the argument that it’s a bad idea to spend 2-4 years building a factory in the US only for the next administration (or Trump hiimself) to reverse tariffs — and then you have to compete with a Chinese factory again.

Shortly before non-farm payrolls, Trump also reposted something suggesting he was pplaying ‘4D chess’ and tanking the market temporarily to bring down borrowing rates.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 1.1 K
• Employment change.-32.6 K vs 2.0 K estimate
• unemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.7% estimate. Last month 6.6% – the first increase since November 2024
• full-time employment -62.0 K versus -19.7 K last month
• part-time employment 29.5 K versus 20.8 K last month
• Total hours worked rose 0.4% in March (after -1.3% in February); up 1.2% year-over-year
• Average hourly wages rose 3.6% year-over-year to $36.05 (+$1.24); February growth was 3.8%

Other details:

• Employment declined in wholesale and retail trade (-29,000; -1.0%)

• Employment declined in information, culture and recreation (-20,000; -2.4%)

• Employment increased in ‘other services’ (+12,000; +1.5%)

• Employment increased in utilities (+4,200; +2.8%)

• Employment fell in Ontario (-28,000; -0.3%) and Alberta (-15,000; -0.6%)

• Employment increased in Saskatchewan (+6,600; +1.1%)

• Little employment change in other provinces in March

The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December and January totalling 211,000 (+1.0%).

Private sector employment fell by 48,000 (-0.3%) in March

• Little change in February after a cumulative gain of 97,000 (+0.7%) from Nov 2024 to Jan 2025

• Up 175,000 (+1.3%) year-over-year

Public sector employment was little changed in March (third straight month)

• Up 92,000 (+2.1%) year-over-year

Self-employment was little changed in March

• Up 81,000 (+3.0%) year-over-year

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +151K (revised to +117K)
• Two-month net revision: K versus -2K prior
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.1% expected
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.1519% versus 4.1396% prior
• Prior unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Participation rate: 62.5% versus 62.4% prior
• U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 8.0% prior
• Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.3% versus +0.3% expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.3%
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.8% versus +3.9% expected and +4.0% prior
• Average weekly hours: versus 34.2 expected and 34.1 prior
• Change in private payrolls: +209K versus +140K expected and +140K prior
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: +1K versus +4K expected and +10K prior (revised to +8K)
• Government jobs: +19K versus +11K prior
• Full-time jobs: +459K versus -1193K prior
• Household survey +201K vs -588K prior

This is a solid number and I think it reflects something that Bank of America highlighted: Weather was poor in February and that may have suppressed employment; it’s bounced back. Leisure and hospitality rose 43K after a -17K previously.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Liberation week isn’t going great for markets, that’s for sure. S&P 500 futures are down 2.9% and we’re minutes away from non-farm payrolls.

See our: March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring?

The worst-case scenario today is that we get a bad non-farm payrolls reading and Powell takes a hawkish turn.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• China announces tariffs of 34% on all US goods in retaliation
• Risk-off flows intensify ahead of US trading
• Traders are now pricing more than 50% chance of a fifth cut by year-end
• AUD hit the hardest amid the risk-off flows
• Gold picks itself back up as the trade war rhetoric escalates
• Oil sinks to lowest in almost two years
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Germany February industrial orders 0.0% vs +3.5% m/m expected
• Germany March construction PMI 40.3 vs 41.2 prior
• UK March construction PMI 46.4 vs 46.0 expected

Markets:

• CHF leads, AUD lags on the day
• DAX down 4.7%, CAC 40 down 4.2%; S&P 500 futures down 3.5%
• US 10-year yields down 15 bps to 3.895%
• Gold flat at $3,112.34
• WTI crude down 8.3% to $61.02
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $82,128

Markets were already staying on the defensive in European morning trade before China decided to retaliate by announcing additional tariffs of 34% on all US goods. That sees the trade war escalate to the next level and fears of a major hit to the global economy reverberated across markets.

That led to intense risk selling across the board, deepening the market rout from yesterday.

S&P 500 futures were already down nearly 1% before extending losses to well over 3% now. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields plunged lower to under 3.90% while USD/JPY took a tumble from 146.30 to a low of 144.54 during the session. The pair is still down 0.8% to 144.90 currently.

As China retaliated, the aussie is one of the biggest losers with AUD/USD now down some 3.6% on the day to test waters below 0.6100. The low earlier hit 0.6050, which was the lowest since the Covid pandemic during March 2020. That comes as traders are now pricing in rate cuts by the RBA for each of the next three policy meetings.

Staying on FX, the Swiss franc remains one of the biggest beneficiaries with USD/CHF marked down by 1.1% to 0.8490 on the day. This comes as European stocks are absolutely ripped to shreds with the DAX down by almost 5% and CAC 40 down by over 4% currently.

In the commodities space, there was also plenty of action to note. Gold was struggling very early on before catching strong bids after China’s retaliation in pushing up from $3,090 to a high of $3,136. The precious metal is giving back gains though as volatile trading continues in the precious metals space. I talked about some of that earlier here.

Then, we also had oil absolutely crater with WTI crude dropping from $66 at the start of the session to near $61 now. That’s the lowest that oil has traded in four years as concerns about a trade war and its impact on global growth hits.

All that said and done, it is best to be reminded that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will only go into effect on 9 April. And China’s counter-tariffs are to only go into effect on 10 April. There is still time for both sides to negotiate and tone down the rhetoric. That’s the key thing to be aware of in my view.

But for now, emotions are running high in markets and that is what is driving trading sentiment. It’s no time to be catching the falling knife.

Coming up, we’ll still have the US jobs report and Fed chair Powell’s speech to deal with. Don’t underestimate either. A bad set of labour market numbers will only serve to heighten recession risks and a lack of clarity support from Powell could do the same as well.

There’s still much more volatility to deal with before the weekend comes along. Be safe and have a good one, everybody.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 7/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The market moves are intense at the moment, as China delivers sweeping counter-tariffs against the US here. It’s a bit of a case of blink and you’ll miss it, with the price movements coming in thick and fast. In FX, we’re already seeing USD/JPY tumble below 145.00 now to fresh lows – down by 1% on the day.

Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are down 3% and in Europe we’re seeing the DAX down by nearly 5% and CAC 40 down by 4%. As crazy as it sounds, we’re getting so close to talking about the DAX erasing all of its gains for the year when at some point last month it was up by close to 18% year-to-date. Baffling.

Going back to FX, the aussie is being crushed hard with traders now fully expecting the RBA to deliver rate cuts next month and all the way through to August at least. In the next three meetings, traders are pricing in ~86 bps worth of rate cuts currently. That is seeing AUD/USD tumble by over 3% now to 0.6117 on the day. The Pacific peso is back.

In other markets, gold is one of the biggest beneficiaries here as the precious metal has surged up from around $3,090 to $3,133. It is up 0.6% now after having been down by around 1% at the lows earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are also hammered down to 3.878% currently – down 16 bps on the day. For some context, yields touched a high of 4.40% just last Thursday. So, we’re seeing it down by over ~53 bps from the highs in just a little over a week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Commodity currencies are generally very sensitive to global growth and they rise the most in risk-on environements and fall the most during negative sentiment.

The Australian Dollar is also very sensitive to macro events linked to China given that the country is Australia’s biggest trading partner. We can see that the AUD is down the most against the “safe haven” currencies like USD, JPY and CHF.

If you are a beginner in FX, these days are a great learning experience because the next time you see similar developments, you will be prepared to respond appropriately. Experience is the best teacher.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Following China’s retailiation news, traders increased the rate cuts expectations to 116 bps by year end. That’s more than 50% chance of a fifth cut.

This is the market screaming for an end to the trade war or support from the Fed as things are expected to get worse without central bank easing.

The longer the Fed remains on the sidelines, the more aggressive the rate cuts expectations will be because the market will price in bigger cuts to combat a potential hard landing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The US stock markets are again under some heavy pressure following the news of China’s retaliation. The S&P 500 broke below the September 2024 low that was keeping the selling pressure at bay for a bit.

The next key level is August 2024 low at 5210 which would be more than 16% correction from the all-time highs and a technical bear market (-20%) would be near.

Notably, China set April 10 as the date when tariffs would officially come into effect. That’s one day after the date set by Trump (April 9). So it looks like they want to keep some time to reach some deal although we’ve got discordant news for potential negotiations.

Nevertheless, if nothing happens until then and the Fed doesn’t do anything, then markets will continue to suffer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.