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Data today showed that Tesla deliveries plunged late in Q1 as Elon Musk hitched himself to Donald Trump and his DOGE campaign. The richest man in the world had said he would stay at the White House for months but now there are indications that he’s become a political liability.

He tried to swing yesterday’s Wisconsin court election but failed and some of the measures he’s taken and comments he’s made are dogging Republicans.

Now, Politico reports that Trump “has told his inner circle, including members of his Cabinet, that Elon Musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role as governing partner.”

It says that both men have decided to part ways and that Musk “will take a supporting role.” That contrasts messages from last month that Musk was ‘here to stay’.

“Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability”

It may not be hasty though as Musk could stay until late May or early June.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are now trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,104.87 ▲ 114.91 (+0.27%)

• S&P 500: 5,647.43 ▲ 14.36 (+0.25%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 17,499.63 ▲ 49.74 (+0.29%)

The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher by 13.85 points or 0.69% at 2026.09.

As a point of comparison, at session lows, the Dow industrial average is down -360 points,, the S&P was down -61.59 points, and the NASDAQ index is down -268 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican president Sheinbaum:

• It will not impose tit-for-tat tariffs
• Mexico will gradually comply with US water treaty after criticism from US State Department

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican president Sheinbaum:

• It will not impose tit-for-tat tariffs
• Mexico will gradually comply with US water treaty after criticism from US State Department

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a big day in markets and I would encourage you to read my primer on what is really expected by the market today around tariff numbers.

At the same time, I see some clues out there. Let’s dig in.

Yesterday, a CNBC report highlighted some strategies:

1. Blanket 20% tariffs
2. Tiered system of three different rates
3. Country-by-country rates

The blanket rate was said to be less likely but there are some good reasons that it’s coming.

One reason is that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt yesterday said that tariffs would be imposed immediately, at midnight. A report today from CNBC confirms that and also talked about a lower blanket rate on most tariffs.

If the implementation is immediate as reported, then I think it points to a blanket number. The bureaucracy around tariffs is formidable and doing country tariffs or even tiers is problematic at an agency like the USTR, which is understaffed. For example, the White House revoked ‘de minimis’ exemptions for China imports but almost-immediately reversed course because it was impossible to implement quickly.

It’s a fair guess that Trump was told that implementing country-by-country rates would take some time, perhaps a long time.

Trump himself has also talked about a rate that’s ‘better than expected’. I take the Washington Post report about 20% tariffs to be a tactical leak in order to soften the actual number, which will be lower.

Secondly, a report today said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers yesterday that tariff rates are a “cap” – that the amounts announced today are the highest the tariffs will go and counties could then take steps to bring the tariffs down.

With all that, here is what I suspect we will get:

A 10-15% universal tariff but with a further message that negotiations are possible (though this might be leaked out after Trump’s announcement). I would lean towards the lower end of that, and could even envision it below 10%.

I think the market will take that as a relief.

Finally, a critical piece of information today will be around which set of laws that Trump is aiming to use for these tariffs. The President has a weak hand here and Senators are already angling to take away some of his emergency powers on tariffs. Other methods require country-by-country investigations or have a temporary shelf life.

After the announcement, we will be watching for announcements about retaliation, which we expect from Canada, Mexico, Europe and the Asian block relatively quickly.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -3341K
• Gasoline -1551K vs -1720K exp
• Distillates +264K vs -1013K
• Refinery utilization -1.0% vs +0.7% exp

These are disappointing numbers but not a shock as the API numbers late yesterday showed:

• Crude +6037K
• Gasoline -1628K
• Distillates -11K

Crude was flat ahead of the report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +1.7% (revised to +1.8%)
• Factory orders ex transport +0.4% vs +0.3% prior

Durable goods orders:

• Durable goods orders 1.0% vs 0.9% preliminary
• Durable goods ex trans 0.7% vs 0.7% preliminary. 0.1% last month
• Durable goods ex defense 0.8% versus 0.8% preliminary. +3.7% last month
• Nondefense capital ex air for February -0.2% versus -0.3% preliminary. Last month +0.1%

These numbers are a tad better than expected.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US equities are down 25 points after the open, which is a halving of futures. The dip buyers have waded in over the past couple trading days as the weak hands are shaken out.

I can see the argument for a better or a worse-than-expected announcement today. One thing I’m sure of is that this won’t be the end of tariff threats, negotiations and fighting. There’s this longing for certainty in markets and, unfortunately, I think we are going to be waiting for a long time for any clarity on how imports into the US will be treated.

But in terms of sentiment, it’s bad right now and that’s usually a good thing for risk assets.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter, according to a company release.

The consensus on deliveries was 377-380K but the whisper number was around 355K. Those compared to 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024, which is a 13% decline.

Shares of Tesla were down 2.3% prior to the report and fell further afterwards.

The company reported 362,615K vehicles in production and said “the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well.”

The big miss on deliveries suggests that March numbers have been very slow. That matches with data from France today showing Tesla sales down 37% y/y in March and Sweden down 64% y/y in the month. We should get those numbers from more markets in the coming days.

Analyst Gene Munster was on CNBC yesterday and said he had taken down
his estimate but the long-time bull also dismissed the auto side in favor of ‘physical AI’, as
many of the bulls do. On the auto side, he argued that the political headwinds
for Elon Musk’s personal brand will fade and that sales will rise 5% y/y
in the fourth quarter of this year.

Time will tell but this number shows that the brand damage is worse than he though.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is ‘Liberation Day’ for Donald Trump and his team but it’s also a big one for Elon Musk and the company that made him famous.

The consensus on Q1 deliveries is 377-380K and that will be a decline from 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024. The more-bearish analysts are at 350-355K and I suspect that’s closer to market pricing.

Analyst Gene Munster was on CNBC yesterday and said he had taken down his estimate but the long-time bull also dismissed the auto side, as many of the bulls do. That said, he argued that the political headwinds for Elon Musk’s personal brand will fade and that sales will rise 5% y/y in the fourth quarter of this year.

I doubt it.

Today’s quarterly numbers might also be overshadowed by monthly numbers in some regions, as those offer a better sense of the brand damage. Already we’ve seen some data from France showing a 37% y/y in March and Sweden down 64%. On the flipside, sales in Italy rose 51% in March (though they were down 7% in Q1 compared to last year).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +77K (revised to +84K)
• Goods producing +24K vs +42K prior
• Service providing +132K vs +36K prior
• Pay gains for job stayers 4.6% vs 4.7% prior
• Pay growth for job changers 6.5% vs 6.7% prior

This is a nice bounce back from a poor reading in February. There isn’t any evidence that there are layoffs due to policy uncertainty (at least outside of government) and with this rebound, there isn’t much evidence there is a lack of hiring either. Companies are down beat so that could change but the mismatch between hard and soft data continues.

“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number
was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” said Nela
Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Major currencies see light changes as traders wait on Trump tariffs
• What are the interest rates expectations ahead of the tariffs announcement
• It’s the known unknowns that is gripping markets with uncertainty
• The first quarter depicted in a single chart
• ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs aren’t good for the global economy
• ECB’s Rehn: Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook
• ECB’s Schnabel: Trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth, inflation
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 28 March -1.6% vs -2.0% prior
• China restricts companies from investing in the US as tensions rise – BBG
• China keeps up the pressure on Taiwan, to simulate strikes on ground and maritime targets

Markets:

• NZD leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
• US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 4.144%
• Gold up 0.4% to $3,122.09
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $71.01
• Bitcoin down 0.6% to $84,673

It’s all about the wait as the countdown to Trump’s big announcement later draws closer. Outside of reports suggesting that he is still largely deliberating plans on tariffs, there’s no new developments so far. And that is keeping markets guessing ahead of the announcement at the White House later at 2000 GMT (4pm ET).

As we get closer to the main event, markets are mixed but taking on a more cautious approach in general. US futures are marked lower alongside European indices while 10-year Treasury yields eased from around 4.18% earlier in the day to 4.14% now.

The major currencies space remains more composed though. The dollar is keeping steadier overall, just keeping a little lower against the antipodes on the day. EUR/USD is steady near 1.0800 with large option expiries in play while USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 149.25, easing slightly from around 149.50 levels at the start of the session.

Besides that, GBP/USD is little changed at 1.2940 and USD/CAD likewise at 1.4320. AUD/USD is seen higher by 0.4% to just above 0.6300 but it doesn’t mean much when risk sentiment is still on edge in trading today.

In other markets, gold is still keeping poised as it holds at $3,122 currently with the high earlier in the day touching $3,135.

There is the US ADP employment data coming up later but expect that to be drowned out by tariff headlines as the spotlight is on Trump today.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.