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Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts on USD/JPY:

• “We judge that Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to the global economy than markets are currently pricing”
• Risks are tilted to a sharp decline in global equities and a weaker USD/JPY
• USD/JPY could soon sustainably break below support at 148.13

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced on Monday that it has discovered a major oilfield in the eastern South China Sea

• proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes
• newly discovered Huizhou 19-6 oilfield
• China’s first large-scale integrated clastic oilfield discovered in deep to ultra-deep layers, said the CNOOC.

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An integrated clastic oilfield is an oilfield developed in clastic sedimentary rock formations, where the exploration, production, and infrastructure are coordinated as one unified operation.

Old pic

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Yen on the move higher, along with gold.

There has been news also that Japan’s GPIF (world’s largest government pension investment fund) is expected to announce 5-year asset allocation plan today

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Another record high for gold, USD3106 hit.

Its since come back below $3100:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nanjing is China’s 2nd-tier Eastern city

• has lifted home purchase limits starting March 31

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump rescinded permits and waivers that had allowed several Western energy firms to operate in Venezuela, further tightening pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.

• Affected companies include U.S.-based Global Oil Terminals—led by energy magnate Harry Sargeant III (a staunch Trump supporter) —as well as Spain’s Repsol and France’s Maurel et Prom, all of which must cease operations in the country by May 27.
• The decision also impacts Venezuelan gas firms working with PDVSA, the state oil company. Global Oil Terminals must halt financial dealings with PDVSA by April 2 and settle outstanding payments.

The move is part of Washington’s broader effort to increase economic pressure on Maduro and push for democratic reforms, following similar orders recently given to Chevron.

Bloomberg had the report over the weekend, citing “three people familiar with the issue said Saturday”.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5

• expected 50.5 (I’ve also seen expected at 50.4)
• prior 50.4

Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.8

• expected 50.5, prior 50.4

Composite PMI 51.4

• prior 51.1

Solid results these. Not spectacular, but for diffusion indexes these are good results.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Private Sector Credit February 2025

Business and housing credit leading

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Smashed Ahead of Big Week – Nasdaq down 2.7%

US stocks were smashed in trading on Friday as the inflation data came in stronger than expected and global growth concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The Dow dropped 1.7%, the S&P 1.99%, while the Nasdaq took the biggest hit, losing 2.71% on the day. US Treasury yields also fell hard as flows continued into bonds; the 2-year lost 7.8 basis points to move down to 3.912%, and the 10-year fell 11 basis points to 4.249%. The dollar dropped against the usual basket of currencies, with the DXY down 0.22% to 104.04. Oil prices dipped, Brent off 0.54% to $73.63 and WTI down 0.80% to $69.36, while gold continued to power higher to notch up more fresh highs, up 0.91% to $3,084.19 an ounce.

Data vs Tariffs in the Week Ahead

Fundamental data will go head-to-head with geopolitical news in the week ahead to see which will dominate investor sentiment. All eyes are, of course, on the US markets, and this week could prove to be pivotal in shaping the way forward for markets for the next quarter, if not the rest of the year, as we get key updates from the US government on tariffs, as well as some major data updates, including the key US employment data on Friday. Geopolitical updates have definitely been having the biggest impact on market moves over the last few weeks, but if we can start to see some certainty in US plans this week, we could see fundamental updates starting to factor more strongly. Most traders, however, feel that we are probably in for more volatility in the short term at least—this week especially—if data prints are off expectations and combine with newswire headlines on trade and tariffs.

Busy Trading Day to Kick off a Big Trading Week

Traders are bracing for more volatility in the sessions and days ahead this week, and comments from President Trump over the weekend in the US have already seen some moves on the Asian open today. The macroeconomic event calendar also has plenty of scheduled data, which should add to the mix. The initial focus in the Asian session today will be on Chinese markets, with key Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data due out; expectation is for prints of 50.4 and 50.5 respectively, and anything significantly off these should see further moves in markets. Key German inflation numbers are due out in the London session today, with the individual German states reporting their CPI data separately across the day. Expectation is for the final number to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase. There isn’t much on the cards in the US session today, with just the Chicago PMI data out, so expect geopolitical updates to dominate again before we see more major data updates in the States as we progress through the week.

The post General Market Analysis – 31/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

A government official in Japan says (if you believe him ….)

• Haven’t heard from manufacturers that US tariffs had direct impact on production at this point

The results are here:

• Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m (expected +2.3%, prior -1.1%)

Market speculation is that front-running tariffs were the reason for the big jump.

Yen rising still:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Melbourne Institue inflation gauge, March 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand ANZ Business survey.

Confidence 57.5%

• prior 58.4%

Activity 48.6%

• prior 45.1%

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.