Articles

Yonhap reporting

• South Korea’s Constitutional
  Court striked down the impeachment motion
  against Prime Minister Han Duck-soo
• Restores his powers
• Han took over as acting leader from President Yoon Suk Yeol,
  who was himself impeached over his short-lived declaration of
  martial law last year.
• Prime Minister Han lasted less than two weeks in the post
• Was impeached and suspended on December 27

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The White House announced, just before Globex opened, that Trump’s April 2 tariffs would be narrowed down.

Here’s the info that I posted on this, well before the Globes open and the move began in FX:

• White House is narrowing its approach to April 2 tariffs set – likely omitting a set

I followed up:

• Risk trade jumps – Globex open, stock futures higher. Here’s why ICYMI.

The Wall Street Journal was the original source. Its gated, but if you can access it, here’s the link to the Journal piece

I am not seeing much discussion of this market-moving news crossing the mainstream financial news wires, nor many social media finance sites. Some have it, sure, but its moving markets here today and I’d expect it to be more widely spread.

Well, at least ForexLive got ahead of it for those tuning in early on a Monday (or late on a Sunday depending on where you are).

I stuck an arrow on the chart around where I posted the news … I hope you caught it ’cause I may be in jail newxt week due to the insider trading charge 😉

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing March 2025 Preliminary: 48.3

• prior 49.0

Services: 49.5

• prior 53.7

Composite: 48.5

• prior 52.0

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China is considering joining the potential peacekeeping mission for Ukraine being spearheaded by European leaders

German newspaper Welt reported on Saturday.

• China’s participation in the mission “could potentially increase Russia’s acceptance of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine,” EU diplomats said

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Push Higher on Tariff Update – Nasdaq Up 0.5%

All three major US indices closed the final trading day of the week higher on Friday after President Trump indicated that some tariffs may be lighter than previously expected. The Dow and S&P both edged up 0.08% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded a 0.52% gain. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies, with the DXY adding 0.3% to move up to 104.09. Treasury yields had a mixed session, with the 2-year yield losing 1.6 basis points to drop to 3.948%, while the 10-year yield added 0.9 basis points to 4.246%. Oil prices rose again as supply concerns continued to weigh on markets, with Brent up 0.22% to $72.16 and WTI up 0.31% to $68.28. Gold saw some profit-taking in line with the stronger dollar, dropping 0.74% on the day to close at $3,023.46 an ounce.

Pivotal Week Ahead for the Dollar

It could be a pivotal week ahead for the dollar as the FX market digests fresh data, including key inflation figures, and navigates further tariff updates and their potential impact on global trade. The DXY has dropped over 6% in the past couple of months as markets have reassessed the potential global trade war triggered by President Trump’s tariff plans. However, it appears to have found support just above the 103.00 level and has spent the last few days recovering some losses, now sitting just above 104.00 as we enter the new trading week. While no major central bank rate decisions are scheduled, important data releases—including CPI figures from the UK and Australia, as well as the US Core PCE—are due. Additional tariff updates could also influence sentiment, leaving the DXY with the potential to either climb back into recent ranges or challenge last week’s lows once again.

PMI Data in Focus for Markets Today

A raft of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data is due from across the globe today, and investors will be monitoring updates closely to assess how firms are coping with increasing global trade concerns. The Asian session kicks off with Australian data, followed by Flash Services and Manufacturing updates from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US over the next two trading sessions. Later in the New York session, we will also hear from our first central bank speakers of the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

The post General Market Analysis – 24/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It looks like a steadier week ahead on the macroeconomic calendar after yet another busy week last week. There is some key inflation data due across various jurisdictions, which investors and central banks alike will be focusing on, but it is certainly a lot quieter than last week’s schedule.

Geopolitical updates will again come into consideration as we progress through the week, with tariffs from the US still very much front of mind for investors. Traders will also be paying close attention to conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East, which are still ongoing and have influenced markets again recently.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is PMI day across the market, with Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data due across several jurisdictions throughout the day, including Australia, France, Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. Later in the day, we have our first central bank speakers for the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Bostic and the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey.

Tuesday looks slightly more subdued, with nothing of note due out in the Asian session. The European session features the German Ifo Business Climate data, which will keep euro traders on their toes, while US data releases include CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, all due shortly after the New York open.

Wednesday may be the busiest day of the week in terms of scheduled data, with key CPI numbers due from both Australia and the UK, likely causing volatility in their respective markets given each central bank’s focus on this data. The UK’s annual budget is also set to be released during the London session. Meanwhile, in the US, we have Durable Goods data and speeches from the Fed’s Kashkari and Musalem.

There is little on the calendar in the first two trading sessions of the day on Thursday, but the New York open sees the release of US Final GDP data and the weekly Unemployment Claims numbers. Pending Home Sales data is also due later in the day.

Inflation data is once again in focus on Friday, with key numbers due at either end of the day. Tokyo Core CPI data will have Japanese traders fixed to their screens early in the Asian session before attention shifts to UK markets near the London open, when Retail Sales data is released. However, the most significant data release of the week likely comes towards the end of the day, with the Core PCE Price Index numbers due shortly after the New York open. At the same time, Canadian GDP data will also be released, followed later in the session by the Revised University of Michigan figures. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to dominate market sentiment.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 24 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Asahi (Japanese media outlet) with the report:

• Toyota to postpone its plan to build lithium-ion battery factory in Fukuoka
• Toyota cite slowing EV demand

I wonder if BYD crushing the EV market entered into consideration?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is a snapshot of speculative positioning in major currencies from traders in the futures market, reported weekly by the CFTC through the IMM (International Monetary Market).

EUR:
Net speculative long positions in the euro surged to 59,425 contracts, a sharp rise from 13,090 the previous week. This marks a strong bullish shift in sentiment toward the euro, likely driven by improving eurozone data or diverging central bank expectations.

JPY:
Bullish positions in the yen eased slightly, with net longs falling to 122,964 contracts from 133,902.

GBP:
Speculative longs on the pound were little changed at 29,402 contracts, compared to 29,193 the prior week. Traders appear to be maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance, possibly reflecting UK macro conditions.

AUD:
Net shorts on the Aussie dollar widened notably to 70,449 contracts from 48,226. Deepening bearish position caused me to do a double take. I quite like AUD. Concerns about China’s outlook?

CHF:
Net shorts on the Swiss franc slightly decreased to 34,375 contracts from 36,957. This small shift suggests positioning remains broadly bearish, likely due to its funding currency status and a dovish SNB.

NZD:
Speculative shorts in the kiwi dollar declined to 40,444 contracts from 52,931, indicating a modest reduction in bearish sentiment.

CAD:
Net shorts on the Canadian dollar eased to 136,582 contracts, down from 142,410 the prior week. The move may reflect a mild improvement in oil prices or a shift in views around Bank of Canada policy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted the risk-positive news from the Wall Street Journal earlier:

• White House is narrowing its approach to April 2 tariffs set – likely omitting a set

Tariff headline ping pong continues.

If I was a cynic I’d say the WSJ popped up that time ahead of re-opening of Globex for the week in order to get it higher. If son, mission accomplished.

Across FX land it’s a similar story, here’s the AUD, for example, higher:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian S&P Global PMI, the preliminary readings for March 2025:

Manufacturing 52.6

• prior 50.4

Services 51.2

• prior 50.8

Composite 51.3

• prior 50.6

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated) report, in (very brief) summary:

• The White House is adjusting its tariff strategy ahead of the planned April 2 rollout.
• Instead of implementing broad, industry-specific tariffs (such as on cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors), the focus will likely shift to targeted reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the U.S.
• Trump has labelled April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when these reciprocal tariffs—intended to match the tariffs other countries impose on U.S. goods—are expected to be announced. However, according to a White House official, the sector-specific tariffs are unlikely to be revealed that day, although plans are still evolving.
• Tariffs previously proposed on Canada and Mexico (linked to fentanyl concerns) and those on certain sectors remain uncertain, and the White House hasn’t clarified if or when they’ll proceed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a slow start to the data agenda for the new week. There is plenty ahead though:

• Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 March)
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, Global PMIs, UK CPI and Spring Statement, BoJ SoO

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.