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• Prices +0.5% m/m vs -0.1% prior
• Prior was +0.5% m/m
• Non-seasonally adjusted -0.1% vs -0.1% prior
• Prices y/y +4.7% vs +4.8% expected
• Prior y/y +4.5%

Separate data on house prices from the FHFA:

• Prices m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior
• Prices y/y +4.8% vs +4.7% prior3

“Home price growth continued to moderate in January, reflecting a clear two-part story across the past
year,” says Nicholas Godec at
S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index posted a 4.1% annual gain, with the bulk of
appreciation—4.8%—occurring in the first half of the year. Prices declined 0.7% in the second half, as
high mortgage rates and affordability constraints weighed on buyer demand and market activity.

“Among the 20 metro areas tracked by the Composite 20, New York City led annual gains with a 7.7%
rise, followed closely by Chicago (7.5%) and Boston (6.5%). Tampa was the only market to post a year-
over-year decline, falling 1.5%. However, the second half of the year told a different story: San
Francisco posted the largest six-month decline at 3.4%, followed by Tampa at 3.2%. Only four of the 20
cities managed to eke out price increases during this period—New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and
Boston—highlighting broad-based cooling.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is the lowest reading since May 2020

• General activity index: -17.5 vs -12.9 prior
• New orders index: -19.5 vs -1.3 prior — lowest since April 2023
• Full-time employment index: -7.5 vs 2.5 prior
• Prices paid index: 36.0 vs 23.4 prior
• Regional activity index: -32.5 vs -13.1 prior

The six month index fell to -19.8 from +13.8 in the first negative reading since April 2020.

Firms are becoming more cautious with spending:

• 30% expect lower total capital spending in 2025 vs. 2024
• 25% plan higher spending
• 45% anticipate unchanged spending levels

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Trump is considering a two-step tariff regime on April 2 – FT
• ECB’s Vujcic: April meeting is completely open, more data is needed
• The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is climbing back into positive territory
• Koala-fied for a Rally – Aussie Dollar Climbs on Pre-Election Tax Cuts
• ECB’s Kažimír: We are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April
• Russia says content of talks with US will not be disclosed in public
• Germany March Ifo business climate index 86.7 vs 86.7 expected
• Traders shrink bets on Fed rate cuts following the US PMIs
• Australia brings out new tax cuts in latest federal budget announcement
• What are the main events for today?
• US-Russia talks said to be not simple but useful
• Japan PMI Ishiba reportedly to introduce strong measures to counter rising prices
• BOJ governor Ueda: Still need some time to consider what to do with ETF holdings
• FX option expiries for 25 March 10am New York cut

The big news in the European session was the Australia’s center-left government unveiling an unexpected tax cut and an extension of energy rebates in the pre-election budget
in what looks like an attempt to shore up political support and help
secure Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a second term in office.

The Australian Dollar and Australian Bond Yields got a boost from the
news as it could make the RBA’s job of bringing inflation sustainably
back to target and lower interest rates harder.

The other noteworthy news was the FT report saying that Trump is considering a two-step tariff regime on April 2 using rarely invoked emergency powers to impose immediate tariffs while conducting formal investigations into trading partners. The market largely ignored this piece of news though.

Looking ahead, we have the US Consumer Confidence report coming up where better than expected (or not bad as feared) data could further boost the market sentiment.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s Two-Step Tariff Plan

• Emergency Tariffs First: Trump is considering using rarely invoked emergency powers to impose immediate tariffs while conducting formal investigations into trading partners.

• Legal Framework: His team is exploring Section 301 investigations, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act to implement tariffs of up to 50% on certain imports.

• Potential Car Tariffs: Trump may impose tariffs on vehicle imports as early as April 2, using a previous national security study on the global car industry.

• Alternative Short-Term Option: Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 could allow temporary tariffs capped at 15% for 150 days, but this option seems unlikely.

Purpose & Revenue Focus

• While Trump frames tariffs as a response to unfair trade practices, his officials are primarily focused on using them to generate revenue for tax cuts rather than for trade negotiations.

• The administration is racing to find a legal basis that allows tariffs to be applied swiftly and broadly.

International Response & Concessions

• Foreign governments are scrambling to secure exemptions before the April 2 deadline.

• The UK is considering reducing taxes on US tech companies to appease Washington.

• EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is set to meet with Lutnick and Greer for last-minute negotiations.

Next Steps

• Trump plans to officially announce tariffs on April 2, calling it “Liberation Day.”

• Any tariffs introduced will be an evolution of his universal tariff plan from his first presidential campaign.

Click here for the full article

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The TSLA stock has been surging higher in the past few days on a mix of positive news which have been lifting the broad US stock market.

• The US data has started to surprise to the upside recently alleviating growth fears.
• Over the weekend and on Monday we got some positive news on tariffs with WSJ reporting that the US is narrowing its approach to April 2 tariffs set and President Trump saying that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries
  may get breaks.
• JP Morgan reported that retail traders poured $8.1 billion into Tesla stock over 13
  straight trading days. That’s the biggest
  retail buying streak by dollar amount in more than ten years.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 26/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• April meeting is completely open, more data is needed.

He’s not saying anything new here as ECB members continue to keep the door for another rate cut open in light of the upcoming Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is a widely followed indicator that measures how recent economic data compares to consensus expectations.

How It Works

• The index rises when economic data releases (such as GDP, employment reports, inflation, or retail sales) exceed expectations.

• It falls when data disappoints relative to forecasts.

• A positive reading means that, on average, economic data has been coming in better than expected, while a negative reading indicates worse-than-expected data.

Why It Matters

The markets move the most on surprises as they trigger a readjustment in future expectations and as all good traders know, the change in expectations is what drives prices.

Where Are We Now?

The index has been on a steady decline since mid-January as Trump launched his tariffs war and weighed on economic sentiment bringing high uncertainty. More recently, the index started to climb and it’s now almost back into positive territory as we can see from the chart below (h/t @lisaabramowicz1 on X).

The better than expected data also helped to alleviate the growth fears and led to a rebound in the US stock market and a contraction in the credit spreads. Growth expectations is the main determinant of credit spreads which also influences stock market returns as eventually it all comes down to future earnings growth.

Credit spreads refer to the difference in yields between corporate bonds and risk-free U.S. Treasuries of the same maturity. They reflect the additional risk investors demand for holding corporate debt.

What Happens When Credit Spreads Widen?

• A widening spread means corporate bond yields are rising relative to Treasuries, signaling that investors see greater default risk.

• This often happens when economic uncertainty grows, making it more expensive for companies to borrow.

• It can indicate a slowdown, weaker corporate profits, and potential recession risks.

What About Contraction?

• If credit spreads narrow, it suggests improving economic confidence, as investors demand less premium for riskier debt.

Below you can see the correlation between the S&P 500 (blue) and the US credit spreads (red)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Australia’s center-left government unveiled an unexpected tax cut and an extension of energy rebates in the pre-election budget in what looks like an attempt to shore up political support and help secure Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a second term in office.

The Australian Dollar and Australian Bond Yields got a boost from the news as it could make the RBA’s job of bringing inflation sustainably back to target and lower interest rates harder.

As a reminder, the RBA cut
interest rates by 25 bps as expected at the last meeting bringing the Cash Rate
to 4.10% but it was accompanied by a more hawkish than expected guidance. We
got a weak Australian Employment report last week which weighed on the AUD although it
didn’t change the market’s pricing much as the focus remains on more inflation
progress.

Tomorrow we have the monthly Australian CPI data where an upside surprise could further boost the AUD.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Kremlin says that they are still analysing the outcome of the talks in Riyadh. There’s been no official statement from both sides yet but as mentioned earlier, talks were rather lengthy with reports stating that it stretched for over 12 hours.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Comments from Trump

• Says he will announce additional tariffs on lumber and chips “down the road”
• Threatened auto import tariffs “fairly soon, over the next few days”
• May give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs
• Tariffs for doing business with Venezuela will be on top of existing tariffs
• Not all tariffs will be included on April 2

This was after the announcement of a Hyundai investment in a steel plant and autos.

This is a pushback on the idea that tariffs won’t go beyond the reciprocal levels but the market is also liking the idea that he ‘may give a lot of countries breaks’.

“I may give a lot of countries breaks,” Trump said. “They’ve charged us
so much that I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us, but
it’ll be substantial, and you’ll be hearing about that on April 2.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 85.2; revised to 85.3
• Current conditions 85.7 vs 85.5 expected
• Prior 85.0
• Expectations 87.7 vs 87.5 expected
• Prior 85.4; revised to 85.6

It’s an improvement across the board even with some positive revisions to February to boot. No doubt that the optimism from the German debt brake reform is helping to lift broader business sentiment in the country/region.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.