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US Markets Edge Higher – Nasdaq Up 0.46%

US stock markets edged higher in trading yesterday as investors continued to maintain a positive outlook on President Trump’s recent, more flexible approach to tariffs. The Dow Jones closed near flat, up just 0.01%, the S&P gained 0.16%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.46% by the end of trading. The dollar drifted lower against most of the majors, with the DXY down 0.11% to 104.21, but notably fell sharply against the yen, closing nearly 100 pips lower on the day. Treasury yields also declined, with the 2-year down 2.2 basis points to 4.013% and the 10-year off 2.1 basis points to 4.313%. Oil prices remained relatively quiet despite further talk of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with Brent up 0.25% to $73.18 and WTI down 0.16% to $69.01. Meanwhile, gold pushed higher in line with the softer dollar, up 0.26% to $3,019.88.

Yen Remains the Most Volatile Major

The yen was undoubtedly the most volatile major currency last year, and if the first quarter of this year is anything to go by, it does not look likely to lose its crown in 2025. We have already seen a near 8% range in USD/JPY this year and, although this is in line with its contemporaries, the volatility within this range is much higher. Certainly, the haven factor of the yen has played a significant role in some of the sharp moves we have seen in the currency, particularly in response to geopolitical news and tariff updates. Additionally, the fact that Japan’s central bank is in a very different position compared to its counterparts has also contributed significantly. Traders expect this volatility to continue into the next quarter, especially with market uncertainty remaining high, and see both USD/JPY and yen crosses as offering some of the best opportunities for intra-day trading.

Inflation Data in Focus for Traders Today

Today is likely to be the busiest day of the week in terms of the economic calendar, with key inflation data releases that could trigger significant market movements. The Asian session sees the latest CPI data released in Australia, with households hoping for a lower print than the expected 2.5% year-on-year increase. This, combined with last week’s weaker jobs report, could push the RBA towards quicker interest rate cuts—especially after last month’s “hawkish” cut.

The European session will focus firmly on UK markets, with both the key CPI data release (expected at 3.0%) and the latest Annual Budget Release from the government. Sterling traders anticipate a busy day ahead.

The New York session is quieter today, with just the US Durable Goods data scheduled. Additionally, we will hear from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem, though most traders still expect trade discussions to dominate sentiment.

The post General Market Analysis – 26/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Earlier:

Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks

More:

• Not many exceptions to April 2 tariffs
• All we are doing is reciprocal
• I’ll likely to be more lenient than reciprocate

On off on off on off …. continues

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg reports that Trump may expedite the timeline for imposing tariffs on U.S. copper imports.

Initially, the Commerce Department was granted 270 days from February 2025 to investigate and report on the potential tariffs. However, recent developments suggest that these tariffs could be implemented within weeks, significantly ahead of the original deadline. ​

This acceleration has led to a surge in U.S. copper imports, with estimates indicating an influx of approximately 500,000 tons—far exceeding the typical monthly average of 70,000 tons. Traders are rushing to import copper before the tariffs take effect, aiming to avoid the anticipated cost increases. ​

The potential tariffs are part of the administration’s broader strategy to bolster domestic copper production, a metal deemed critical for various industries, including electric vehicles, military hardware, and consumer electronics. While the move aims to enhance national production capabilities, it has also introduced volatility in the copper market, with traders attempting to navigate the implications of the impending tariffs. ​

In response to these developments, U.S. companies are exploring alternative sources for copper, considering suppliers from countries like Chile and Peru to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. This shift underscores the broader ramifications of the administration’s trade policies on global supply chains and market dynamics.

—

More from Trump:

• Not many exceptions to April 2 tariffs
• All we are doing is reciprocal
• I’ll likely be more lenient than reciprocate

Earlier:

Copper futures extend to new all time highs on tariff fears

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

February 2025 monthly inflation CPI data from Australia

Comes in at 2.4% y/y

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%

Trimmed mean 2.7% y/y

• prior: 2.8%

That headline result is encouraging. Its under the median estimate, under the previous month’s result, and under the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target band. and the same as the previous month. The RBA and government have an agreement to target the midpoint, so coming in below that is a good result also.

The underlying measure, core inflation, which in Australia is the trimmed mean has dribbled lower for January also, Further below 3%, so that’s a positive.

Do bear in mind that the monthly figure doesn’t carry the weight of the official quarterly figure. For that we’ll have to wait until later in April. Still, January and February is what we have to go on for the quarter so far and those are looking good.

AUD/USD is barely changed, circa 0.6304.

At the margin this result will bump up the prospect of a nearer term RBA rate cut. I’m not holding my breath on that though.

***

The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release (late in April).

• The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full picture.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Toronto Star reports — citing sources — that Canada ‘could be on the lower end’ of the April 2 tariffs.

• Nothing is guaranteed
• Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs
• Despite a recent news report the tiered-approach is not on the table,
  the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s
  about to hit next week
• Countries would in fact be put into low, medium or high levels
• It’s not clear what those tariff levels would be

I suspect a lot of this is already in the market but many of the questions raised in the report remain, as does the retaliation. The US may believe (rightly or wrongly) that threatening 25% tariffs may put Canada in a position to ‘tolerate’ a 5% or 10% level without retaliating.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Services Producer Price Index (February 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan:

+3% y/y

• expected +3.1%, prior also +3.1%

for the m/m comes in at no change, 0%

• prior -0.5%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The United States’ fiscal position is continuing to deteriorate, with Moody’s Ratings warning that rising interest payments and widening deficits are eroding the country’s debt affordability. In its latest report, Moody’s said the fiscal strength of the US has “deteriorated further” since the sovereign outlook was cut to negative in late 2023, and that even under optimistic economic scenarios, debt sustainability remains significantly weaker than other top-rated sovereigns.

The rating agency highlights a sharp rise in interest payments—from 9% of federal revenue in 2021 to a projected 30% by 2035—as the most critical threat to fiscal flexibility. Despite the US dollar’s global reserve status and strong demand for Treasuries, Moody’s cautioned that these strengths may no longer be enough to offset the effects of structurally high deficits, unfunded tax cuts, and growing entitlement costs. It forecasts the federal deficit reaching 8.5% of GDP by 2035, with debt-to-GDP rising to 130%, far above the 43% median for other Aaa-rated sovereigns.

Moody’s also flagged political and policy uncertainty as a mounting risk, particularly around former President Donald Trump’s proposed global tariff plan. The agency warned that new trade barriers could damage business confidence, constrain the Fed’s ability to lower rates, and worsen fiscal pressures. It noted that uncertainty over tax policy, including ambitious but unfunded tax cuts, adds to fiscal vulnerabilities.

Moody’s signalled further that the country’s “extraordinary economic strength” is no longer sufficient to shield it from credit pressures. With Treasury yields expected to average 4.4% in 2025, Moody’s sees limited room for fiscal recovery—absent major policy adjustments or a sharp decline in borrowing costs.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

M6 earthquake Chile, Tarapaca region

• 119 km ENE of Alto Hospicio, Chile
• Depth 85 km

EMSC maps

Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper.

Earlier:

• Copper futures extend to new all time highs on tariff fears

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar traders are preparing for a busy morning today, with key inflation data due out early in the trading session. Despite a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia last time, the bank remains relatively hawkish compared to other major central banks and has reiterated its focus on inflation over the past few months. A weaker jobs report last week has fueled hopes for further rate cuts sooner rather than later for Australian households. However, inflation must cool for those hopes to materialize.

The expectation is for the headline data to show that year-on-year inflation remains relatively strong at 2.5%, which would likely keep the RBA on its current path. However, any significant deviation (+/- 0.2%) from this result could shift expectations and trigger substantial moves in the Aussie. The AUD/USD is sitting around the 0.63 mark this morning, and an off-expectation print could see technical levels on both sides of the range challenged swiftly. A stronger-than-expected reading could test trendline resistance on the hourly chart, currently around 0.6360, with recent highs near 0.6400 as the next topside level. Conversely, a weaker print indicating slowing inflation could see trendline support around 0.6260 tested relatively quickly.

Resistance Levels:

• Resistance 2: 0.6408 – 2025 High
• Resistance 1: 0.6364 – Trendline Resistance

Support Levels:

• Support 1: 0.6261 – Trendline Support
• Support 2: 0.6185 – March Low

The post Trade the AUD/USD on the Australian CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trump will be interviewed at 2100 US Eastern time (0100 GMT) by one of his favoured outlets, Newsmax.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Rabobank are expecting EUR/USD to head up to 1.12, on a one-year outlook.

• Analysts at the bank say that the immediate rally in EUR/USD has come off the boil, but the move unto below has 1.0800 has seen buyers emerge.
• They add they see some near-term, 1- to 3-month, weakness before it resumes its climb.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Goldman Sachs warns of potential tariff shock on April 2
• Nasdaq leads as US stocks post moderate gains
• Trump: Mexico and Canada have stepped it up a lot
• The lessons from The Atlantic leak: In a transactional world, leverage is all the matters
• Trump: I would like to see interest rates come down
• Crude oil futures settles at $69.00
• Bitcoin trying to stretch higher. Approaches a retracement and swing level.
• Ukraine ready to continue ceasefire negotiations – defense minister
• ECB’s Villeroy: There is still scope for further policy easing, extent is up for debate
• US 2-year note auction 3.984% vs 3.987% WI
• Spain’s Ibex closes at its highest level going back to May 2008.
• Copper futures extend to new all time highs on tariff fears
• Goldman Sachs; Revising GBP forecasts higher; new targets for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
• Senate Warns of Russia-China-Iran-North Korea Alliance – What Investors Need to Know
• US and Russia have agreed to esure safe navigation in the Black Sea
• Commodity currencies fall as US consumer expectations fall to 12-year low
• US new home sales for February 0.676M million versus 0.679 million estimate
• US March consumer confidence 92.9 vs 94.0 expected
• US March Richmond Fed manufacturing composite index -4 vs +6 prior
• Goldman Sachs puts a number on what level of tariffs is expected
• Fed’s Williams: Households and firms seeing ‘heightened uncertainty’
• US January CaseShiller 20-city house price index 4.7% vs +4.8% y/y expected
• Fed’s Kugler: Progress on bringing inflation to target has slowed since summer
• Philly Fed non-manufacturing index -32.5 vs -13.1
• The EUR, JPY and GBP are all trading higher vs the USD to start the US trading day
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: The AUD rallies on unexpected tax cuts

Today, the Trump administration had to deal with the fallout from a botched text exchange between a number of high level government defense officials, VP Vance and an unintended participant – a reporter from the Atlantic, that outlined plans for U.S. forces launching strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

True to form, the response was to deny, then deemphasize the importance of the top secret conversation, then put blame on the reporter, and ultimately admit the transgression.

As Adam points out in his “must read” post, the implications for the markets was not important, and although it triggered significant concern over the breach itself, why it happened, and what it means about the security process of the administration, it’s deeper implications lie in the shift toward a highly transactional approach to foreign and domestic policy.

From a fundamental perspective in the US session, data was generally weaker with:

• Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing tumbling to -32.5 from -13.1 last month
• Consumer confidence falling tot 92.9 versus 94.0 estimate, and 100.1 last month.
• New home sales came in about as expected
• Richmond Fed was lower at -4 versus +6 last month

Fedspeak today came from Fed Governor Kugler and NY Fed President Williams:

• Adriana Kugler noted that progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer, with estimates suggesting the 12-month PCE inflation rate stood at 2.5% in February. She highlighted the return of positive goods inflation as a setback, since earlier declines in goods prices had helped suppress overall inflation and manage expectations. Consumer surveys indicate expectations for further price increases in the near term, driven in part by uncertainty surrounding trade policy. Kugler emphasized the importance of closely monitoring both the pace of price acceleration and shifts in inflation expectations. While she acknowledged some signs of softness in recent economic data, she also noted that the labor market remains stable with low unemployment. Overall, her tone leaned slightly hawkish, though her remarks largely aligned with the Fed’s broader message of data dependency and cautious observation
• William’s comments were limited saying only that households and firms are seeing heightened uncertainty.

The fundamental economic news helped to send rates lower on the day:

• 2-year yield 4.017%, -2.0 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.068%, -2.5 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.315%, -1.6 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.655%, unchanged

The US dollar was mostly lower versus the major currencies as well but were also off their lowest levels of the day. The greenbacks biggest decline was versus the JPY with a fall of -0.52%. The dollar also fell vs the CAD by -0.33% despite comments from Pres. Trump that Canada (a Mexico) had “stepped it up a lot”.

Although the USD is ending the day mostly lower, the price action had it’s share of ups and down (or downs and ups) with the exception of the USDJPY which fell for most of the session until the price approached its 100 hour MA at 149.474. The low for the day reached 149.54. Resistance is back at the 150.00 level with the 100 hour MA now support.

The EURUSD traded down to swing area support at a swing area between 1.0761 and 1.0776, bounced toward the falling 100 hour MA at 1.0834 and back down to 1.0791 currently. The 100 hour MA above at 1.0791, and the swing area down to 1.0761 will be the levels to eye for a break in the new trading day.

The GBPUSD bounced off support at the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday and again today. That MA comes in at 1.29108 going into the new trading day. If broken to the downside it would likely shift the short term bias to the downside. Absent that, and the buyers are in firm control.

The AUDUSD traded above and below the 100 and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart near 0.6305. The price is back below those MA currently at 0.6300 keeping sellers more in control. A swing area between 0.6254 and 0.6268 was home to lows this week, last week, adn the week before last. On the topside, a move back above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart would have traders looking toward the 100-day MA near 0.6337.

In the US stock market today the major indices closed higher with the Nasdaq leading the way with a gain of 0.46%

• Dow industrial average closed 4.18 points or 0.01% at 42587.50.
• S&P index up 9.08 points or 0.16% at 5776.65
• NASDAQ index up 83.26 points or 0.46% at 18271.86.
• Russell 2000-13.99 points or -0.66% at 2095.37.

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading up seven cents or 0.10% at $69.18.
• Gold is trading up $8.92 or 0.30% at $3019.92
• Bitcoin is trading up $376 and $87,888
• Copper is trading up $0.13 or 2.57% to a new record high of $5.22

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.