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The auto tariff news is here from Wednesday afternoon US time:

• Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA
• The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA
• Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd

• Trump has allowed a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports

You’ll notice the second point, that the USD had risen. That has been reversed.

The USD is now lower vs, EUR and JPY. CAD has manged to bounce too, as has GBP. The moves for AUD and NZD are not as notable.

Is the impact of Trump tariff announcements wearing off?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China data: January – February Industrial profits -0.3% y/y (prior -3.3%)

China tends to announce January / February data as one, to account for the moveable Lunar New year holidays each year.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on moves in China to dump bad property-related loans:

• China sets record in bad asset disposals, shifts focus to housing market

More now:

• China’s major banks are speeding up property loan write-offs under regulatory pressure to clean up balance sheets and support the broader economy.

• Regulators, including ICBC, have been urged to accelerate the disposal of bad real estate loans—some banks have doubled their write-off targets.

• In 2024, a record ¥3.8 trillion ($532B) in bad assets were removed, with property loans a major contributor.

• While write-offs may free up capital and improve balance sheets, they could also weigh on profits and capital ratios.

• The property sector remains weak, with Fitch expecting non-performing loan (NPL) ratios to stay high at 4–5% this year.

• Analysts view the move as necessary to restore confidence and possibly a sign that the market is nearing a bottom.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

TD Securities notes that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has admitted four major Chinese life insurance companies as members under a new pilot program, potentially paving the way for a significant surge in institutional gold demand.

The inclusion grants these insurers access to purchase gold directly through the exchange—marking a notable shift in policy that could expand the network of domestic buyers. Together, the four firms manage nearly CNY13 trillion in assets, representing close to two-thirds of the total potential demand that could emerge under the program.

TD Securities says this development could generate a “massive new buying impulse” for gold, as institutional capital flows increasingly into the precious metal amid a changing regulatory landscape.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Markets Hit as Trump Adds More Tariffs – Nasdaq Down 2%

A risk-off tone hit U.S. equities in trading yesterday as tech took a beating, with President Trump advising of more tariffs to come in the auto industry. The Nasdaq finished down 2.04%, leading the decline, while the S&P lost 1.12% and the Dow slipped 0.31%. Rising treasury yields added pressure to the stock move, with the 2-year up 2.3 bps to 4.017% and the benchmark 10-year climbing 3.9 bps to 4.352%. The USD firmed again, up 0.43% to 104.62, riding higher yields. Oil found some support as supply concerns increased with regard to Venezuela and a fall in U.S. inventories, with Brent up 1.42% to $74.06 and WTI rising 0.94% to $69.65. Gold drifted lower, down 0.18% to $3,016.85, but still remains at relatively elevated levels.

Tariff Impact Again Changing Dynamic

There is no doubt that the threat and implementation of trade tariffs from President Trump and the new U.S. administration have had a significant impact on financial markets over the past couple of quarters. However, the impact has changed over this period, and there seems to have been another subtle change in market reaction over the last couple of days. Initially, tariffs were seen as inflationary for the U.S. economy, leading to higher yields and a stronger dollar, but were also viewed as a positive for U.S. stocks. However, over the last couple of months, the negative impact on global trade has been factored in, and stocks have been hit on fresh tariff news, as well as yields and the greenback. But there seems to have been a subtle change again over the last few sessions, with tariff news being sidelined for the dollar and yields, which have gained ground mainly on the back of Fed members’ inflation concerns. FX and bond traders are continuing to monitor the correlation closely and are expecting more volatility, not less, in the coming days.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet calendar day ahead for financial markets, but that does not necessarily mean that traders will have a quiet day. There is little in the way of major economic data updates due out in the first two trading sessions of the day. However, we are scheduled to hear from President Trump again during the Asian session, and this is likely to lead to some strong moves, especially if he talks about tariffs. There is some key data due out of the U.S., and traders will be paying close attention to both the Final GDP number and the Weekly Unemployment Claims update early in the session, and then the Pending Home Sales numbers a while later. However, once again, market participants are expecting geopolitical updates to dominate sentiment.

The post General Market Analysis – 27/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The Dallas Fed Energy Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas that provides insights into the oil and gas sector, particularly in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico — a key region for U.S. energy production.

The latest survey was released Wednesday and the full report can be found here:

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Highlights:

• The business activity index, the survey’s broadest measure of the conditions energy firms face in the Eleventh District, remained in positive territory but declined slightly from 6.0 in the fourth quarter 2024 to 3.8 in the first quarter.
• company outlook index decreased 12 points to -4.9
• outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1, the highest since Q1 2020, the beginning of the pandemic
• oil production index moved up from 1.1 in the fourth quarter to 5.6 in the first quarter
• natural gas production index turned positive, rising from -3.5 to 4.8
• Among oilfield services firms, the input cost index advanced, from 23.9 to 30.9
• Among E&P firms, the finding and development costs index increased, from 11.5 to 17.1
• aggregate employment index edged down from 2.2 in the fourth quarter to zero in the first quarter. This suggests employment was unchanged in the quarter. The aggregate employee hours index was relatively unchanged at 0.7. Meanwhile, the aggregate wages and benefits index was also relatively unchanged at 21.6.

Some of the comments received from respondents are indicative of that rising uncertainty, link to those is here. For example:

• trade and tariff uncertainty are making planning difficult
• administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. “Drill, baby, drill” is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.
• tariffs immediately increased the cost of our casing and tubing by 25 percent
• “Drill, baby, drill” does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19.

One comment I saw from an analyst dismissed the comments by saying there is never certainty. Which is correct, but ignores that the uncertainty level is at its highest in five years and will have implications.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump said he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate a deal for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations.

• He suggested a small tariff reduction could help get the deal done but noted tariffs are worth more than TikTok overall.

• Trump also indicated he might extend the deadline for the TikTok sale again.

Trump made these remarks during his announcement of auto tariffs earlier:

• Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA
• The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA
• Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd

• Trump has allowed a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS outlined three reasons to favour U.S. artificial intelligence firms over those of China:

1. Higher Capex: U.S. AI firms are investing more heavily (20% vs. China’s 11.7%), reinforcing long-term competitive advantage.

2. Stronger R&D: Greater U.S. research spending boosts chances of breakthrough innovations.

3. Better Monetization: U.S. companies have clearer paths to turning AI advances into revenue and profit.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This comes from the folks at eFX

Nomura: Retains Long JPY Bias Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Domestic Policy Sensitivity
By eFXdata

Synopsis:

Nomura maintains a long JPY bias, citing heightened uncertainty around US tariff policy, the Bank of Japan’s sensitivity to yen weakness, and domestic political focus on inflation control. While the BoJ is not expected to hike earlier than current market pricing, Japan’s policy stance suggests yen-supportive undercurrents remain intact.

Key Points:

⃣ US Tariff Volatility Supports JPY Longs

• Nomura highlights unpredictable US trade policy as a persistent source of market volatility.

• In this context, the yen remains a preferred safe haven despite broader uncertainty.

⃣ BoJ Still Responds to Yen Moves

• BoJ’s January meeting minutes show it remains attentive to JPY depreciation, even without signaling early rate hikes.
• This implies implicit support for the currency, especially if weakness returns.

⃣ Domestic Policy Aimed at Curbing Inflation

• Reports suggest PM Ishiba is pushing for anti-inflation measures ahead of the summer Upper House elections.

• These policies, if implemented, would likely limit inflation risks and cap BoJ policy divergence with the Fed.

Conclusion:

Nomura remains constructive on the yen, citing external tariff-driven volatility, BoJ’s reaction function to FX, and Japan’s political focus on managing inflation. Even without imminent BoJ hikes, the macro and policy mix supports a continued long JPY bias, especially in an environment of rising global uncertainty.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

News from earlier is here:

• Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA
• The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA
• Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd

Now hearing that ther will be a 1 month exemption for auto parts imports, through to May 3.

Tariff ping pong news continues

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s announcement of the 25% auto tariffs was earlier. I’ve summarised the main points, as Trump covered a lot of separate ground (lumber, drugs, April 2 etc) and it was all a bit jumbled.

• a new 25% tariff on all cars and light trucks not manufactured in the United States
• will be on top of any existing tariffs
• the tariffs will remain in place throughout his 4-year term
• Trump wants to encourage domestic auto production, have manufacturers build plants in the US
• auto tariffs are set to take effect on April 2nd
• tariff collections begin April 3rd
• the administration is seeking approval for a tax deduction on interest payments for car loans—if the vehicle is made in America
• parts made in America but assembled into foreign-made cars will not be subject to tariffs

US equity index trade has resumed on Globex, opening lower.

Musk will be happy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s tough to get comfortable ahead of April 2 even as the Trump administration dials down tariff threats. There are many ways this can go wrong and after the leaks in the Atlantic, you get the sense this administration is making it up as they go.

The latest leg lower came after a Bloomberg report saying Trump was preparing auto tariffs, likely on Europe. It could come as soon as today, as they cite ‘people familiar’.

The Nasdaq is down 1.6% and the S&P 500 is down 0.8% and threatening to fall into the gap to open the week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.