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• Prior was -155.5 billion

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The world is struggling to understand whatever tariff strategy the US is trying to roll out and so far taking it in stride. If the economy starts to roll over, that will change in a hurry.

One early indication will come from initial jobless claims and there is a risk that when it gets bad, the recession trade will be on.

We also get wholesale inventories and final Q4 GDP but the other big one to watch will be February advance goods trade balance. It was the January report that set off some real worries about Q1 GDP and led to the sharp drop in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker. We later learned that was largely due to gold imports.

It’s not clear how much tariff front-running and stockpiling is going on but if that’s the case, there could be another big US trade balance disappointment. There is no consensus on today’s data but the prior was -155.5B.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Gold shines as we draw closer to Trump tariffs deadline
• The DAX index falls as auto stocks get slammed on Trump’s 25% tariffs
• Trump threatens “large scale” tariffs on EU, Canada if they cause economic harm to the US
• German economy minister: We must be clear that we will not back down to US tariffs
• UK’s Chancellor Reeves: The UK is in intensive tariff talks
• ECB’s Wunsch: A rate cut pause in April should be on the table
• ECB’s Kazāks: We can probably keep cutting if baseline holds
• ECB’s Villeroy: Increase in long term yields tightens financial conditions
• PBOC deputy governor says monetary policy is supportive, relatively loose
• Eurozone February M3 money supply +4.0% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• Dollar expected to be bid on month-end – Deutsche
• Dollar the flavour this month-end, quarter-end – Barclays

Markets:

• GBP leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 5.3 bps to 4.390%
• Gold up 1.0% to $3,050.54
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $69.41
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $86,968

The threat of Trump’s tariffs continues to reverberate across markets today. The dollar was bid early in Asia before fading that as we got to the handover in Europe and it sort of stuck during the session. That comes as the overall risk mood remains cautious after the selloff in equities yesterday.

EUR/USD did briefly pare gains to 1.0750 before pulling back up to 1.0785 currently, as the dollar trades more mixed on the session. USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 150.90 levels amid higher bond yields while GBP/USD is seen up 0.4% to 1.2935 on the day.

The dollar is also trading mixed against the commodity currencies, up 0.1% against the loonie with USD/CAD at 1.4275. Canada is one of those hit by auto tariffs, as US auto imports from Canada are the fourth highest – sitting only behind Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD is seen up 0.3% to 0.6315 despite the risk divergence. That said, it’s still early in the day.

In other markets, equities are keeping more cautious in general. But in Europe, the selling continues with the DAX in particular hit the hardest as Germany is also one that is more impacted by auto tariffs. As for US futures, they were largely flattish during the session but are now tilting lower ahead of US trading.

In the commodities space, gold continues to shine brightly as it edges higher close to its record high of $3,057. Increased economic uncertainty is just among the list of reasons in keeping the precious metal bid during these testing times, as the gold bugs continue to keep buzzing for the time being.

Coming up later, we do have some US data to work through in the form of the weekly jobless claims and Q4 final GDP. But as has been the case all week, tariff headlines will continue to be the main focus ahead of the 2 April deadline next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But they do say that their response will be “timely, robust and well-calibrated”. Well, they still have until 2 April to identify what that will be. If anything else, counter-tariffs are very much expected at the very least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P500 yesterday had a rough day as it got hit by a wave of selling basically for the entire session with just a lil bounce before the market close. The move seemed more of a technical pullback caused by the underlying uncertainty ahead of April 2 rather than something else as we got the negative tariffs news late in the session.

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the rebound that started around mid-month is still on track with the market printing higher highs and higher lows. The pullback yesterday stalled around the trendline as the dip-buyers piled in with a defined risk below the trendline to target the 5856 leve next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to extend the pullback into the 5652 level.

Overall, the uncertainty will likely keep the markets at bay but more on the defensive side as we approach the April 2nd deadline. With Trump it’s hard to have conviction on anything, so from a risk management perspective, it would be better to just have some patience and start positioning after the Wednesday’s announcement.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 28/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

After some consolidation just above $3,000 since last week, gold is starting to ratchet higher again in trading today. With broader markets caught in a wave of uncertainty on what will happen with Trump’s tariffs, gold continues to shine brightly and is keeping bid once more.

The brief pause above $3,000 saw price action folding back towards its 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages, before buyers once again seized near-term control earlier today.

The record high earlier this month was at $3,057 and we’re not too far away from contesting that.

As markets continue to grip with economic uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, more prospects of rate cuts by major central banks, gold continues to find good reason for being demanded. That especially with major central banks such as the PBOC especially still stocking up on supply.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Increase in long term yields, all things being equal, tightens financial conditions.
• France needs to bring back deficit to 3%.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on auto imports yesterday weighed on the euro as traders increased slightly their bets for more ECB easing this year on the expected hit on the European economy. The EU-US yield differentials have been moving more in favour of the US in the recent weeks as the spike following the German defence spending news eventually started to wane.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the upside in the EURUSD pair has been capped by a trendline. This looks like a textbook downtrend and the sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows with a defined risk just above the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting new highs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +3.6%

Broad money growth in the euro area continues to hold up with the ECB still on a more easy policy path. Loans to households also were seen up 1.5% compared to 1.3% in January and loans to non-financial institutions were also up 2.2% compared to 2.0% in January.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration.
• I believe in free and open trade.
• I want UK-US trade flows to continue to be strong.
• Trade frictions will make it harder to grow the economy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• ECB: 56 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Following the announcement of 25% tariffs of auto imports, traders increased the expected easing from 51 bps to 56 bps.

• BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoC: 41 bps (69% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Following the slightly hawkish BoC Meeting Minutes, traders revised expectations a bit lower from 44 bps to 41 bps.

• RBA: 63 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ: 59 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 8 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 35 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.