The dollar is keeping steadier so far on the day, with the antipodes lagging among the major currencies. EUR/USD is still hugging levels under 1.0800 with large option expiries in play while AUD/USD is seen down 0.3% to 0.6285 with month-end considerations in focus as well.

Meanwhile, gold continues to shine brightly as it races to a fresh record high and is up 0.6% to $3,076 currently. This note from Deutsche yesterday is also stoking some fears and is another reason for gold to stay underpinned in this uncertain market environment.

Looking to the session ahead, there will be quite a number of data releases to work through in Europe today. But the main focus will be on inflation numbers from France and Spain. The former has already been a comfort point for the ECB while the latter is slowly seeing core inflation converge to the 2% target. Barring any major surprises, the data might not be too compelling in shifting the ECB odds going into April.

As things stand, traders are pricing in a ~80% probability of a 25 bps rate cut next month.

In the day ahead, the US PCE price index and Trump tariff headlines will be the main things to watch out for. At the same time though, do be reminded to take into consideration month-end and quarter-end flows.

0700 GMT – Germany April GfK consumer sentiment0700 GMT – UK Q4 final GDP figures0700 GMT – UK February retail sales data0745 GMT – France March preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Spain March preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Switzerland March KOF leading indicator index0855 GMT – Germany March unemployment change, rate1000 GMT – Eurozone March final consumer confidence1000 GMT – Eurozone March economic, industrial, services confidence

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Reaffirms that maintaining stable, healthy development of US-China relations is fundamental
• Will handle US-China relations based on the principles of mutual respect and win-win cooperation
• China will remain an ideal, safe and promising investment destination
• Will ensure foreign firms have fair access to factors of production
• “Blocking someone else’s path will only block your own path in the end”
• I often say “blowing out other people’s lights will not make your own light brighter”

Among those meeting with Xi today are global heads of BMW, Mercedes, Qualcomm, FedEx, and Inter IKEA. A lot of this is to try and build closer ties to bolster foreign investment, especially during these testing times with US-China tensions on the rise. For some context, foreign direct investment (FDI) into China fell by over 27% in 2024 – marking the biggest drop since the global financial crisis in 2008.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Federal Reserve speakers on Friday include Barr and Bostic
• Chinese President Xi Jinping met with global CEOs in Beijing on Friday
• China unveiled a plan to enhance the sustainability of its aluminum industry by 2027
• European Central Bank board member Luis de Guindos speaking Friday
• US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – critical ranges to watch – clustered around +0.3% m/m
• Goldman Sachs moves its RBA rate cut forecast from April to May
• Gold made a new high above US$3060 earlier, now its above $3070
• Canada – Carney and Trump are expected to speak on Friday
• Trump warned US automakers not to raise prices due to tariffs
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1752 (vs. estimate at 7.2591)
• Stronger Tokyo inflation data bolsters case for May BoJ rate hike, says ING
• Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold next week
• BOJ Summary of Opinions – March meeting
• The yen has strengthened after the trifecta of Tokyo CPI data – inflation rising
• Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y (2.7% expected)
• Morgan Stanley data preview – sees hotter core PCE print
• Barclays are expecting the People’s Bank of China to cut the value of the yuan
• Fed’s Barkin warns not assume just a one-time change in prices from tariffs
• Wells Fargo warns of downside risks for Mexican peso amid tariff threats
• JPMorgan sees limited downside for S&P 500 despite modest overvaluation – fair value 5400
• Euro poised to strengthen as diverging US–EU policy paths reshape outlook: EURUSD forecast
• Confirmed – Australian national election will be on May 3
• New Zealand March consumer confidence 93.2 (prior 96.6)
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Gold hits a record in the tariff fallout
• Fed’s Collins says inflation risks are to the upside
• Fed’s Barkin says current monetary policy setting ‘good place to be’

We
had inflation data for Tokyo for March today, with another rise
recorded. All three of the measures came in above expected, all of
them above (or equal to in the case of the headline) the February
reading, and all three also above the Bank of Japan 2% target.

At
the margin, the data is another argument for a nearer-term Bank of
Japan rate rise. Both services and goods prices are seeing rising
inflation pressures.

Soon
after the CPI data came the ‘Summary’ of the recent Bank of Japan
meeting (March 18 and 19). The reports highlighted the debate on the
Board. Those in favour of quicker rate rises pointed to:

surging
food prices could persist and have a “big impact” on
underlying inflation.

• stronger
  wage growth supports tightening case
• and
  one member said Japan is nearing its inflation target
• Those
  taking a more cautious approach cited tariff-related risks to the
  economy. After the meeting, at his press conference and since then,
  Governor Ueda warned of heightening global economic risks also.

USD/JPY
saw some swings in response to the data and Summary. It hit highs
above 151.20 before dropping back to session lows around 150.70.

Very
early in the session, late US afternoon we had remarks from the fed’s
Collins and Barkin (posts above).

News
and data flow otherwise was light.

AUD
and NZD have lost ground, with no obvious ‘smoking gun’ news
crossing. Some yen cross selling is chatter.

Gold
raced to a record high, above US$3075.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 104.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 103.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 104.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0825
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.0687
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0885
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 163.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 161.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8337
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8310
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2876

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1.2779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50% retracements, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3009
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 194.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 193.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 197.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8797

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8758
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8866
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 148.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4320

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4383
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal close to the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6327
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.6262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal close to the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.5712

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5783

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 42,114.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of a green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 41,410.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,012.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,723.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 22,381.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 100% projection and the 161.8% extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,185.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,670.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of a green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 5,603.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,843.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 85,982.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 81,319.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,949.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1,832.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,132.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 70.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 68.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,049.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 2,998.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,093.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 28th March 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 March 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly higher than the previous estimates of 2.3%. Exports fell slightly less and imports declined more than initially anticipated, leaving the contribution from net trade positive at 0.26 pp (vs 0.12 pp). Government expenditure also rose more while fixed investment contracted less. Meanwhile, unemployment claims printed at 224k, coming in marginally below the forecasts of 225k. Claims have remained pretty stable over the last four weeks, averaging around 223k – lower and stable claims typically highlight a resilient labour market. Despite a relatively robust set of macroeconomic data, the dollar index (DXY) slid lower toward 104 overnight as sentiment was hurt by the White House’s announcement to impose tariffs on automobile imports. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs on all foreign-made cars and light trucks, effective April 2. The move is expected to ramp up local automobile costs in the near-term, as manufacturers race to find new supply chains and shift more of their production into the U.S. but the 25% tariff also heralds pain for U.S. automakers, given that a bulk of them operate factories outside the U.S., especially in Mexico.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI accelerated from an annual rate of 2.2% in the previous month to 2.4% in March, higher than the market consensus of 2.2%. This marks the fifth consecutive month that core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue normalizing monetary policy. The BoJ held interest rates steady during its March policy meeting as the board took a cautious stance while assessing the impact of rising global risks on the domestic economy. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled this week that further rate hikes are likely if economic conditions align with projections. The yen initially strengthened following this data release with USD/JPY falling toward 150.70 but it reversed swiftly to rise steadily toward 151.20.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – moderated lower in January as both headline and core readings eased, marking its first slowdown in four months. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in February, this recent ascend in the DXY could lose some steam during the U.S. trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – moderated lower in January as both headline and core readings eased, marking its first slowdown in four months. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in February, this recent ascend in the DXY could lose some steam during the U.S. trading hours, potentially providing a boost for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie has hovered around 0.6300 for most of this week but downward pressures are driving it toward 0.6270 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session. Persistent demand for the greenback will likely weigh on the Aussie as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Renewed demand for the greenback on Friday put downward pressure on the Kiwi. Overhead pressures are likely to build further as the day progresses and this currency pair could retest this week lows of 0.5700.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 27th March)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI accelerated from an annual rate of 2.2% in the previous month to 2.4% in March, higher than the market consensus of 2.2%. This marks the fifth consecutive month that core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue normalizing monetary policy. The BoJ held interest rates steady during its March policy meeting as the board took a cautious stance while assessing the impact of rising global risks on the domestic economy. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled this week that further rate hikes are likely if economic conditions align with projections. The yen initially strengthened following this data release with USD/JPY falling toward 150.70 but it reversed swiftly to rise steadily toward 151.20.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro rallied strongly on Thursday as it rose 0.5% to climb above 1.0910. However, overhead pressures remain for this currency pair as it dipped under 1.0900 as Asian markets came online on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With demand for the franc and the greenback seemingly at equilibrium since last week, USD/CHF has ranged sideways as it hovered above 0.8750 while running into headwinds at 0.8850 thus far. This currency pair looks set to extend this ‘neutral’ bias as the trading week wraps up on Friday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

After declining for four consecutive months, consumer spending in the U.K. rebounded strongly in January as sales jumped 1.7% MoM, easily surpassing market expectations of a 0.3% gain. This marked the strongest expansion since May 2024, with food stores such as supermarkets, specialist food stores as well as alcohol and tobacco stores leading the gains. However, February forecast points to a decline of 0.3%, signalling a return to negative sales growth. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending could create headwinds for the pound on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Economic activity grew relatively strongly in December 2024 and January of this year as mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction activities along with wholesale trade and transportation; and warehousing led the expansion. Following a growth of 0.3% in January, the Loonie should see strong tailwinds if Canada’s economy remains robust.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed a tightening of crude supplies along with new U.S. tariffs and their expected effect on the world’s economy. The biggest headwind for oil right now is the concerns about trade and oil tariffs could slow demand growth, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude on Tuesday. WTI oil has climbed nearly 5% at its highest point this week due to fears of tighter supplies following the recent sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This benchmark briefly rose above $70 per barrel by Wednesday and then again on Thursday and is set to notch its third consecutive week of higher gains as trading comes to a close on Friday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Chinese President Xi Jinpingmet with CEOs of such firms as BMW, Mercedes, Qualcomm.

As the US appears to be pulling back on global ties China is stepping up.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

​China has unveiled a comprehensive plan to enhance the quality and sustainability of its aluminum industry by 2027. Spearheaded by ten government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the initiative sets ambitious targets:​

• Increase Domestic Bauxite Resources: Aiming for a 3%–5% boost to reduce reliance on imports.​

• Expand Recycled Aluminum Output: Targeting an increase exceeding 15 million tons to promote environmental sustainability.​

This strategy aligns with China’s broader environmental goals, including the expansion of its carbon trading market to encompass the aluminum sector by 2025. This move will require aluminum producers to purchase credits to cover their emissions, encouraging the adoption of low-carbon technologies and the phasing out of outdated, polluting facilities. ​

The plan also underscores the importance of energy efficiency and carbon reduction in aluminum electrolysis, aiming for significant energy savings and emission reductions through technological upgrades.

By focusing on resource efficiency, recycling, and emission controls, China aims to position its aluminum industry for sustainable growth amid global environmental challenges.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

0830 GMT / 0430 US Eastern time

• Online remarks by ECB board member Luis de Guindos
• at conference “VI Cumbre FEDEPE” organised by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals)

Ears open for any hints at the path ahead for the European Central Bank.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Due on Friday at 0830 US Eastern time (0130 GMT), the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy.

There are two main types of PCE data:

1. Headline PCE: This measures the overall change in prices for all goods and services. It includes volatile components like food and energy, which can fluctuate sharply due to supply shocks, seasonal changes, or geopolitical events.

2. Core PCE: This excludes the more volatile food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. Core PCE is the preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve because it gives a more stable picture of long-term inflation pressures.

PCE is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but PCE is broader in scope and reflects changes in consumer behaviour, such as substituting products when prices rise.

You can see the median estimates for the various PCE data points below in the table.

The ranges for ‘core’ measures (why these are important is explained below) are:

Core PCE Price Index m/m

• 0.1% to +0.3%
• of the 54 forecasters (Reuters poll)
  • 6 are at +0.2%,
  • 35 are at +0.3%,
  • and 13 are at 0.4%

and for the y/y

• 2.4% to 2.8%
• of the 39 respondents for the y/y projection
  • 1 is at 2.4%
  • 2 are at 2.5%
  • 3 are at 2.6%
  • 18 are at 2.7%
  • 15 are at 2.8%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. The Fed are now waiting to see more progress towards their inflation goal.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold continues to rise,

• strong demand from Asian central banks
• and other central banks

is supporting the price, along with those seeing comfort from rising geopolitical risks.

I posted yesterday on Goldman Sachs’ forecast – its one of the loftiest I have seen.

China has been one of the big buyers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime minister Carney says Donald Trump reached out on Wednesday to schedule a call between the two.

The talk is that the call will take place on Friday.

Carney said on Thursday:

• “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.”

Carney says he is looking to negotiate.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal (gate) is reporting that Trump has warned US automakers not to raise prices:

• Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased prices, people with knowledge of the call said.

• Instead, Trump said, they should be grateful for his elimination of what he called President Joe Biden’s electric-vehicle mandate, which involved subsidies and emissions requirements to encourage electric-car production.

Automakers in the US say they face a surge in costs due to tariffs on Canada and Mexico – Trump’s tariffs apply not only to imported cars but imported parts.

Link the Journal article is here if you can access it.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.