Articles

• 9 am US Eastern time (2 pm GMT) speaks with media
• 2 pm US Eastern time (7 pm GMT) holds a press conference with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer

Greg had the wrap up for Wednesday posted earlier, Trump a market mover again:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 Feb: Trump tariffs on Canada/Mexico starting soon.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura Group spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview.

• biggest upside risk to
  crude prices in an otherwise well-supplied market is U.S. foreign
  policy toward Iran
• while U.S. trade relations with China are uncertain, Iran remains the
  key issue to watch.

• “Iran’s oil exports have surged in
  recent years, but the potential return of Donald Trump to the White
  House has created uncertainty”

• Trump’s
  previous “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran could see heightened
  pressure on the country again, and lead to market volatility if tensions
  escalate.

Despite these risks, global oil supply remains
stable, which may help cushion the impact of any potential
disruptions

Luckock
also pointed to potential shifts in global oil flows, suggesting the
U.S. could resume Russian oil imports before Europe if a deal over
Ukraine is reached. He highlighted the growing shadow fleet of around
1,000 tankers transporting oil for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, a key
factor in global supply dynamics.

Weekly Brent candles … bottom of the range for the past few years here.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The American Chamber of Commerce in South China (AmCham
South China) has released its 2025 Special Report on the State of
Business in South China (registration required to access) reaffirming that China remains a highly
attractive investment destination for foreign businesses. According
to the report, 58% of surveyed foreign companies place China among
their top three global investment priorities, signaling continued
confidence in the world’s second-largest economy despite global
economic uncertainties.

Looking to 2025 ahead, 76% of foreign firms operating in
China plan to reinvest, demonstrating a sustained commitment to
expanding their presence in the country. This optimism is
particularly evident among American companies, with 74% indicating
reinvestment intentions, an 11-percentage-point increase compared to
the previous year. This upward trend suggests that, despite
geopolitical tensions and shifting global trade dynamics, U.S.
businesses recognize China’s long-term market potential and
strategic importance.

Several factors contribute to China’s enduring appeal to
international investors:

1. Large Consumer Market: With a population exceeding
1.4 billion, China offers unparalleled opportunities for businesses
seeking expansion, especially in sectors like technology,
manufacturing, retail, and healthcare.

2. Robust Supply Chain Infrastructure: The country’s
well-established manufacturing and logistics networks continue to be
a major draw for businesses looking to streamline production and
distribution.

3. Government Initiatives Supporting Foreign
Investment: Recent policy adjustments, including market-opening
reforms and incentives for foreign businesses, have reinforced
investor confidence.

4. Innovation and Technological Advancements: China’s
rapid development in AI, renewable energy, and high-tech
manufacturing makes it an essential hub for companies seeking to stay
competitive in these industries.

While the report underscores China’s investment
attractiveness, foreign businesses still navigate challenges,
including regulatory complexities, rising labor costs, and evolving
trade policies. The geopolitical landscape, particularly U.S.-China
relations, remains a key factor influencing investment decisions.
However, the latest findings suggest that companies are willing to
adapt to these challenges to capitalize on China’s economic growth.

The report is upbeat given the storm clouds that seem to be gathering.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian Q3 headline Private Capital Expenditure -0.2% q/q

• expected +0.8%
• prior +1.1%

Plant/machinery capex -0.8%

prior +1.1%

Building capex +0.2%

• prior +1.1%

Estimate 5 for 2024-25 is $183.4b

• This is 3.2% higher than Estimate 4 for 2024-25

Estimate 1 for 2025-26 is $148.0b.

• This is 1.8% higher than Estimate 1 for 2024-25

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Mixed Again on Tariff Threats – Dow Down 0.4%

US stock markets experienced another mixed trading day yesterday as fresh tariff threats from President Trump hit the newswires and his tax cut plan passed in Congress. The Dow dropped 0.43%, while the S&P closed near flat, up just 0.02%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.26%. Treasury yields fell further, with the 2-year yield losing 2.3 basis points to 4.072% and the 10-year yield down 4 basis points to 4.254%. The dollar regained some of its recent losses, with the DXY gaining 0.3% to move back up to 106.49. Oil prices continued to decline, reaching fresh annual lows, with Brent down 0.37% to $72.75 and WTI off 0.20% to $68.79. Meanwhile, gold experienced a rare quiet day, closing up just 0.07% at $2,916.54.

Fed Rate Cut Expectation Pulled into June

US markets have seen increased volatility over the past few weeks, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly from just a month ago. Previously, markets had been pricing in just one cut in September, but a sharp drop in recent data prints has now pushed expectations towards a potential rate cut as early as June, with another possible in September. However, market dynamics in recent weeks appear to have changed. Equities had previously rallied as yields decreased, but this is no longer the case. The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen by over 11% from its high this year, yet stocks have not responded as many investors had hoped. This has led some market participants to speculate that a larger correction could be on the horizon.

US Data in Focus for Traders Today

The macroeconomic calendar is busier today, with a strong focus on US data in the final session. The first half of the day sees little scheduled, but activity picks up once European markets open. Swiss GDP data and Spanish flash CPI figures are due shortly after the European open, and traders expect corresponding market movements. However, the main focus for most investors will come shortly after the New York open, with the release of US preliminary GDP data alongside the usual weekly unemployment claims update. Given recent disappointing data prints, investors will be watching closely to see whether GDP falls below the anticipated 2.3% increase or if weekly claims significantly deviate from the expected 222,000 figure. Durable goods orders data is also set for release at the same time, though the other reports are likely to dominate sentiment.

The post General Market Analysis – 27/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Info comes via a Wall Street Journal (gated) report on the AUD outlook from Commonwealth Bank of Australia:

• AUD/USD has faced challenges since Trump’s election win in November
• Trump has raised trade war risks
• China’s response to trade threats will be a key factor influencing the Australian dollar’s outlook

CBA also point to next week in China:

• annual session of China’s National People’s Congress begins on Wednesday
• expected to introduce increased government spending to offset the effects of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports
• indications to a larger-than-anticipated stimulus could boost the AUD, NZD, and CNH

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

California introduced a $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers a year ago. A cost-of-living adjustment of up to 70 cents is up for discussion now.

• Fast Food Council, which includes workers, restaurant owners, and state officials, approved a motion to consider the increase in an upcoming meeting (April or May)
• no vote will be taken then

***

The Fast Food Council can approve annual wage hikes of up to 3.5% or match inflation, whichever is lower.

This looks to be very early stages. A wage hike is likely to trickle across other jurisdictions. the Fed will be watching.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Seven & i confirm earlier reports:

• Learned from Junro Ito, vice president and a representative director of 7&i, and Ito-Kogyo Co., Ltd. that they have been unable to secure the financing required to submit a definitive proposal to acquire 7&i.
• 7&i remains committed to exploring all opportunities to unlock value for shareholders and continues to assess a full range of strategic alternatives, including the proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard.
• The special committee is engaging constructively with ACT to determine if an actionable proposal can be achieved that addresses the serious U.S. antitrust challenges that any such transaction would face.
• There is no actionable proposal from Mr. Junro Ito and Ito-Kogyo for 7&i to consider at this time.

Earlier, via a report in Japanese media:

• Japan – Seven & i to give up management buyout after Itochu withdraws

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ New Zealand business survey for February 2025.

From the report, the key points ANZ highlight:

• Business confidence rose 4 points to +58 in February
• expected own activity eased 1 point to +45
• Past own activity (the best GDP indicator) fell 3 points to -3, while past employment was flat at -7.

• Pricing and cost indicators were mixed. One-year-ahead inflation expectations eased from 2.7% to 2.5%.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The info on Cit’s outlook comes via a gated Reuters report. In brief:

Citi predicts that the U.S. will implement a 25% tariff on copper imports by the fourth quarter of 2025, following an executive order by President Donald Trump to investigate copper trade. The order aims to bolster domestic copper production, which is crucial for electric vehicles, military equipment, and infrastructure.

• In anticipation, Citi expects the one-year forward COMEX copper premium over LME to reflect an eventual 25% tariff
• Before tariffs take effect, U.S. buyers may stockpile copper, temporarily driving up prices, but this could reverse once the duties are imposed.

Citi also warns that tariffs may be enforced earlier through reciprocal trade measures or country-specific duties, such as those imposed on Canada and Mexico.

• Reciprocal tariffs on copper imports could arrive as early as Q2 2025 as part of broader trade policies.

The investigation covers multiple copper forms, including raw ore, refined metal, alloys, scrap, and finished products. While the official review period extends until November 2025, past cases on steel and aluminum suggest the process might accelerate. Citi expects the tariff to be implemented no earlier than May 2025.

—

Earlier:

• Goldman Sachs sees copper market step-up in price range, to $10,500-$11,500/t.

US copper tariffs are a bizarre strategy but highlight a real shortage

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Washington Post reports the US tax department, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will close down 120 offices

WaPo is gated, in brief:

• The plan is outlined in a letter from the U.S. General Services Administration that was obtained by The Washington Post.
• The Trump administration plans to shutter more than 120 IRS offices that have taxpayer assistance centers as the White House’s efficiency zeal carves deeper into the tax agency.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says April 2 is baseline reciprocal tariff data.

• We will not allow chinese vehicles in the US
• China is my major worry
• China dislikes United States

Greg had a rundown of Trump’s Wednesday tariff comments in the wrap:

• reiterated his stance on tariffs, postponing those on Canada and Mexico until April 2, despite previously stating they would proceed in early March. Trump also signaled upcoming 25% tariffs on European autos and other goods, warning that the EU may attempt retaliation.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.