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A major power outage plunged Santiago and much of Chile into darkness, disrupting daily life and transportation.

• Key copper mines, including Escondida, Codelco operations, Antofagasta, and Anglo American, were affected, causing concerns in global metal markets.
• Interior Minister Carolina Toha cited a failure in the northern power transmission line, ruling out a cyber attack.
• The government declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. across multiple regions.
• Authorities activated hydroelectric plants to restore electricity, but no clear timeline for full restoration was provided.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report:

• The Trump administration plans to create a registry for immigrants in the U.S. illegally to submit their personal information or face fines and prison time, according to documents including a draft regulation seen by The Wall Street Journal.

• Immigrants in the country illegally including children 14 and older would be required to submit fingerprints and home addresses to the registry, the documents show.

• Immigrants who qualify but fail to register could be fined up to $5,000 and sentenced to up to six months in prison.

• The move to criminalize being in the U.S. illegally would build on the Trump administration’s efforts to toughen immigration laws.

Support the crackdown on illegal migrants or not, the implication for US labor markets is the reduction in cheap labor, which can have implications for higher inflation. That’s the economy angle on this if you are interested.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters (gated) with the info, this in brief:

• The Democratic Republic of Congo is considering introducing cobalt export quotas as the world’s biggest supplier of the battery metal seeks to curb oversupply and boost prices.
• Cobalt prices are languishing at historically low levels amid slackening demand from automakers and as mines ramp up production of copper, from which cobalt is extracted as a by-product, to capitalize on high prices.
• The plan to introduce limits has been discussed within the Congolese government but no final decision has been taken yet

Reuters cite “three sources familiar with the details, who declined to be named discussing sensitive matters”.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US February consumer confidence 98.3 vs 102.5 expected
• Richmond Fed composite index for February higher at 6 versus -4 last month
• Ukraine agrees US minerals deal – report
• Ukraine will have to “cede control of some land for peace” – report
• Zelensky plans to travel to Washington on Friday – report
• Fed’s Barkin: Uncertainty argues for caution in last stages of inflation fight
• More from Barkin: Federal workforce is only 2% of national job market
• US treasury auctions off $70 million of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.123%
• Fed’s Barr: Monetary policy is tied to financial stability
• The House doesn’t have the votes for the budget resolution. Stocks down, yields down
• US House speaker Johnson opens the door to delaying budget vote
• Sheinbaum says she aims to close a tariff deal with the US by next Tuesday
• Opposing signals from Canada and Mexico around tariff deadline
• US Treasury Sec Bessent: US economy is brittle underneath
• German’s Merz: It is ruled out in the near future that we will reform the debt brake
• US December CaseShiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.4% expected
• Bank of America CEO: We don’t expect the Fed to cut rates further
• ECB’s Schnabel: It’s becoming increasingly unlikely that rates are holding back spending
• ECB’s Schnabel: Subdued growth not proof of restrictive policy

Markets:

• Gold down $35 to $2916
• US 10-year yields down 10 bps to 4.29%
• WTI crude oil down $1.60 to $69.10
• S&P 500 down 0.5%
• EUR leads, CAD lags

On Friday I outlined 8 things that are weighing on market sentiment and that continues to be the case. Today, soft US consumer confidence underscored fears that the spending is softening and that triggered a round of selling in equities, buying in bonds and softness in the US dollar. In addition, Congress seems to be stalled on the Trump tax cut plan, though we may get a vote later.

Tariffs continue to be a problem for the market but I was struck at how unworried Mexico’s President was in her comments today. There was also some optimism about a Ukraine deal and I think it’s fair at this point to fully price in an end to the war. The oil market certainly took a step in that direction today with WTI busting below $70, though I would argue the Russia oil is all making it to market.

The euro is at the intersection of a few trends right now. Peace is a tailwind and Schnabel continues her hawkish turn. At the same time, optimism about German spending has been a driven this week and Merz today said reforming the debt brake won’t be done in the near-term and is ‘complex’ so that pours some cold water on that theme.

The yen continues to find a steady bid as the risk-off theme dominates. Warren Buffett was a tell on the weekend as he talked about continuing to buy Japanese assets while staying on the sidelines in the US. Technically, today’s break of 149.00 worked its way down to 148.55, which is the lowest since October. It looks to close right at the figure though, which doesn’t make for a clean break.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is a great deal of focus on economic data, geopolitics and AI in markets at the moment but I think the most-important signal is in Congress.

House Republicans can only afford to lose two votes to pass anything given the slim majority and they’re trying to move forward with a budget resolution that balloon’s the deficit to pay for Trump’s tax cut promises.

The possibility of that passing without reform is dwindling.

Laura Weiss from Punchbowl writes that Rep. Warren Davidson just said he won’t vote for it.

“I’m not voting for that,” he told reporters.

Yesterday, Rep. Thomas Massie said. “If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better.”

Other reports show Spartz and Burchett as ‘no’ votes.

The negotiations are always toughest at the end though. But given this, it makes sense that Treasury yields are falling and stocks are down. It means less of a chance of a corporate tax cut while a better likelihood of a lower deficit.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Highlights of the data:

• headline crude oil draw vs. build expected
• distillates draw
• gasoline build

more to come

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude +2.6 mn barrels
• Distillates -1.5 mn bbls
• Gasoline -0.9 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

​Trump has announced the upcoming launch of a “Trump Gold Card” program

• offering foreign investors a pathway to U.S. residency in exchange for a $5 million investment aimed at job creation
• set to commence in approximately two weeks​

Trump indicated that Russian oligarchs could potentially qualify for the Trump Gold Card.

Pic from Trump’s first term

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Over the past six months, Australia’s inflation has shown a notable decline, bringing it within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2–3%.

Today we get the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator, for January 2025. The monthly number does not carry the weight that the quarterly does (more on this below).

The downward trend in inflation has been influenced by various factors, including government rebates like the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund, which have helped reduce electricity costs. In response to the easing inflationary pressures, the RBA cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.10% earlier this month, the first rate cut since November 2020. ​

While headline inflation has moderated, underlying measures, such as the Trimmed Mean Inflation, remain above the target range, indicating persistent price pressures in certain sectors. The Trimmed Mean was recorded at 3.2% in December 2024. ​

Today we get the January readings, the headline rate is expected to have risen from December.

***

You’ll note that Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is listed as speaking. I don’t think is correct. I had her scheduled to speak much earlier:

• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan speaking on Tuesday

***

Australian Monthly CPI Data

• The monthly CPI indicator was introduced in October 2022 as a complementary measure to the long-established quarterly CPI.
• It provides a more frequent snapshot of inflation trends in Australia by tracking price movements across selected goods and services categories each month.
• However, the monthly CPI series has limitations:
  • It covers about 62–70% of the items in the quarterly CPI basket, meaning some categories are excluded, such as services with less frequent price changes (e.g., education and health).
  • It is subject to revisions, especially as more data becomes available or adjustments are made to seasonal factors.
  • Seasonal adjustment processes can create some volatility and reduce interpretability in the short term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking:

• says Europe uses digital taxes to penalize US businesses
• says I hear that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is coming to visit on Friday
• some form of peacekeeping troops will be needed for Ukraine

Perhaps the troops will come from Europe and not the US? Dunno.

Maybe Trump is not just a trade war guy?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US commerce secretary Lutnick says will investigate possible imposition of tariffs to rebuild US copper industry.

• Lutnick: No exemptions, no exceptions; it’s time for copper to come home.
• White House official: Trump will recognize copper sector as a national security issue, commerce department will investigate under section 232.
• Trump trade adviser Navarro: Like it has in steel and aluminum markets, China is using industrial overcapacity and dumping to gain control of the world’s copper market.
• White House official: Investigation will look at raw mined copper, copper concentrates, refined copper, copper alloy, scrap copper, and derivative products.
• White House official: Premature to discuss any levels of tariffs.
• White House official: Trump prefers tariffs over quotas.
• White House official: US can’t develop smelting and refining capacity unless there is reasonable certainty of long-lasting protection for these industries.
• White House official: Forecasts based on demand from electric vehicles and AI point to copper shortages in the future.
• White House official: Administration intends to move quickly on copper investigation but no specific timeline given.
• White House official: Won’t identify specific derivatives, that would prejudge the investigation.

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The 3 major US stock indices traded below the 100-day moving averages intraday, but for the Dow industrial average and the S&P index, the price closed back above that key technical barometer.

• For the NASDAQ index it closed below its 100-day moving average at 19211.55 for the first time since September 10th.
• The S&P index traded below the 100-day moving average at 5946.04 , but closed just above the moving average level.
• The Dow industrial average also move below its 100 day moving average and today at 43484.22, but was able to snap back higher

The snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average closed up 159.95 points or 0.37% at 43621.17.
• S&P index closed down -28.0 point surmise 0.47% at 5955.25.
• NASDAQ index closed down -260.54 points or -1.35% at 19026.39.
• Russell 2000 fell -8.18 points or -0.38% at 2170.08. For the Russell 2000 it close below its 200 day moving average for the third consecutive day. That moving average comes in at 2203.04

Shares of Nvidia closed lower for the third consecutive day ahead of its earnings release tomorrow after the close. It’s shares fell $-3.65 or -2.80% at 126.63.

Broadcom continued its slide with a fall of $-5.39 or -2.59% to $202.54. The test its 100-day moving average at $200.01 before bouncing modestly into the close

Meta after 20 days in a row of higher closes has now closed lower for 6 consecutive days.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.