Articles

• Prior was 734K
• Single family sales -10.5%
• Months of supply at 9 vs 8 prior
• Prices +3.7% y/y to $446,300

All regions except the west saw large drops in new home sales. Home builders were downcast in the most-recent earnings calls.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 734K
• Single family sales -10.5%
• Months of supply at 9 vs 8 prior
• Prices +3.7% y/y to $446,300

All regions except the west saw large drops in new home sales. Home builders were downcast in the most-recent earnings calls.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump signed an executive order late yesterday directing the Commerce Department to examine possible copper tariffs.

It’s a bizarre move given that copper is fungible and sellers can simply sell elsewhere. There is no-doubt going to be a push to improve US copper smelting and move that part of the supply chain out of China but putting tariffs on the mining and selling of copper isn’t going to accomplish anything, as foreign mines simply sell at the global price to whoever pays the most.

That said the White House official who outlined the order said:

“Forecasts based on demand from electric vehicles and AI point to copper shortages in the future.”

That’s the signal in the noise and something I’ve highlighted many times. Right now there is some uncertainty about traditional demand for copper given mixed economic signals but if China hits the stimulus taps in March, all the demand factors begin to come together. In addition, any large build-out of robots will need massive amounts of copper.

The order has sharpened that sentiment and copper miners are trading up 5% today, including Freeport-McMoran.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

All eyes are on Nvidia earnings after the bell today but a better reading on the underlying economy probably came from home improvement company Lowe’s today. Shares are up 2.5% on modest beats on revenues and earnings but that comes after an 18% decline since the October highs.

Sentiment is poor around anything related to US housing because of persistently high rates. There has been some relief lately with US 10-year yields down 50 bps from the January peak to 4.29% today but with mortgage rates still at 6.8%, it’s a struggling sector.

So it was the 2025 Lowe’s guidance that caught my eye with the company forecasting comp same store sales expected to be flat to up +1% this year. That’s after a 3.1% decline in revenues in FY2024.

On the flip side, comp stores in the quarter rose 0.2% q/q, breaking an eight-quarter losing streak. Home Depot earlier in the week also reported a small lift.

There are other part of the economy — particularly AI — that are driving growth but it’s a two-track economy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada is out with some statistics today including January wholesale trade. That metric rose 1.8% based on a 59.1% survey response that will be updated with the full slate.

Another report highlights that aircraft movements in the country are only back to 92% of the movements recorded in 2019. That differs from the US, where flights are up compared to pre-pandemic. The slow recovery highlights differing economic paths and a per-capita recession in Canada.

Notably, November and December monthly load factors were below those from the same months in 2023.

A survey on investment intentions provided some good news with non-residential tangible capital asset investment forecast to rise 5.5% in 2025, with similar growth in both public and private spending. The survey notes, however, that it was done before tariffs threats and announcements.

Overall, the numbers look solid but I worry about a drop in consumption on tariff angst and a rout in the housing market, particularly in Ontario and BC.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The full-text of the US-Ukraine deal is out and Zelensky is expected to travel to the US on Friday to sign it.

It was billed as a resource agreement and that’s definitely the case but it’s not the full story as this portion highlights:

The Fund’s investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement.

Undeveloped natural resources is one thing, as those investments are capital intensive but handing over half of ‘infrastructure, ports and state-owned enterprises’ is a surprise. The report yesterday said JPMorgan, Blackrock and McKinsey were already knee-deep in US projects in the country.

Now this is just a ‘binding’ draft so there will be much to work out and it needs to be ratified by Ukrainian parliament but it’s going to be interesting.

It’s also not yet clear this will lead to a lasting peace but it does say this:

The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.

These are strange times.

Full text:

BILATERAL AGREEMENT ESTABLISHING TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR A RECONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT FUND:

WHEREAS the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022;

WHEREAS the American people desire to invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine;

WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine desire a lasting peace in Ukraine and a durable partnership between their two peoples and governments;

WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine recognize the contribution that Ukraine has made to strengthening international peace and security by voluntarily abandoning the world’s third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons;

WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine following a lasting peace;

NOW, THEREFORE, the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine (each, a “Participant”) hereby enter into this Bilateral Agreement Establishing Terms and Conditions for a Reconstruction Investment Fund to deepen the partnership between the United States of America and Ukraine, as set forth herein.

1. The Governments of Ukraine and the United States of America, with the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, intend to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund (Fund), partnering in the Fund through joint ownership, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. Joint ownership will take into consideration the actual contributions of the Participants as defined in Sections 3 and 4. The Fund will be jointly managed by representatives of the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America. More detailed terms pertaining to the Fund’s governance and operation will be set forth in a subsequent agreement (the Fund Agreement) to be negotiated promptly after the conclusion of this Bilateral Agreement. The maximum percentage of ownership of the Fund’s equity and financial interests to be held by the Government of the United States of America and the decision-making authority of the representatives of the Government of the United States of America will be to the extent permissible under applicable United States laws.

Neither Participant will sell, transfer or otherwise dispose of, directly or indirectly, any portion of its interest in the Fund without the prior written consent of the other Participant.

2. The Fund will collect and reinvest revenues contributed to the Fund, minus expenses incurred by the Fund, and will earn income from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), as defined in Section 3.

3. The Government of Ukraine will contribute to the Fund 50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure) as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine. Timeline, scope and sustainability of contributions will be further defined in the Fund Agreement.

The Fund, in its sole discretion, may credit or return to the Government of Ukraine actual expenses incurred by the newly developed projects from which the Fund receives revenues.

Contributions made to the Fund will be reinvested at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. The Fund Agreement will also provide for future distributions.

4. Subject to applicable United States law, the Government of the United States of America will maintain a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine. Further contributions may be comprised of funds, financial instruments, and other tangible and intangible assets critical for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

5. The Fund’s investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine intend that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the Fund Agreement.

The Participants reserve the right to take such action as necessary to protect and maximize the value of their economic interests in the Fund.

6. The Fund Agreement will include appropriate representations and warranties, including those necessary to ensure that any obligations the Government of Ukraine may have to third parties, or such obligations that it may undertake in the future, do not sell, convey, transfer pledge, or otherwise encumber the Government of Ukraine’s contributions to the Fund or the assets from which such contributions are derived, or the Fund’s disposition of funds.

In drafting the Fund Agreement, the Participants will strive to avoid conflicts with Ukraine’s obligations under its accession to the European Union or its obligations under arrangements with international financial institutions and other official creditors.

7. The Fund Agreement will provide, inter alia, an acknowledgment that both the Fund Agreement and the activities provided for therein are commercial in nature.

The Fund agreement shall be ratified by the Parliament of Ukraine according to the Law of Ukraine «On International Treaties of Ukraine».

8. The Fund Agreement will pay particular attention to the control mechanisms that make it impossible to weaken, violate or circumvent sanctions and other restrictive measures.

9. The text of the Fund Agreement will be developed without delay by working groups chaired by authorized representatives of the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America.

Contact persons responsible for preparing the Fund Agreement on the basis of this Bilateral Agreement are: from the Government of the United States of America: the Department of the Treasury; from the Government of Ukraine: Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economy.

10. This Bilateral Agreement and the Fund Agreement will constitute integral elements of the architecture of bilateral and multilateral agreements, as well as concrete steps to establish lasting peace, and to strengthen economic security resilience and reflect the objectives set forth in the preamble to this Bilateral Agreement.

The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.

11. This Bilateral Agreement is binding and will be implemented by each Participant according to its domestic procedures. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine commit to proceed forthwith to negotiate the Fund Agreement.

Signed on 25 February 2025 in English and Ukrainian languages, both texts are equally authentic.

For the Government of the United States of America: Scott K. H. Bessent Secretary of the Treasury For the Government of Ukraine: Andrii Sybiha Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• US futures look for a bounce with eyes on Nvidia earnings
• EUR/USD brushes against another test of 1.0500 again
• The technical lines in the sand have shifted in gold
• Gold Technical Analysis – The US stock market selloff weighs on gold
• Germany March GfK consumer confidence -24.7 vs -21.4 expected
• France February consumer confidence 93 vs 93 expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 February -1.2% vs -6.6% prior
• Russia says more talks are being lined up with the US
• ICYMI – White House clarified that tariffs on Mexico & Canada next week still not decided

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.305%
• Gold down 0.1% to $2,913.03
• WTI crude down 0.1% to $68.86
• Bitcoin down 0.4% to $88,345

There wasn’t any major headlines in European morning trade, as markets await the hustle and bustle in North America trading again.

The dollar is keeping slightly firmer across the board, making up for some lost ground after the softer US consumer confidence data yesterday. EUR/USD in particular is nudging back just under 1.0500, still struggling to clinch a breakout above the figure level.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY did dip lower in Asia trading but is keeping back at 149.51 currently as support from the January low of 148.63 is still holding for the time being.

Month-end flows are also a consideration, with the aussie and kiwi on the weaker side against the dollar today. In case you missed it: Month-end flows to favour the dollar – Deutsche

And that comes despite a rebound in risk sentiment as equities are nudging higher. European indices are holding solid gains above 1% while S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with tech shares leading the way.

Nvidia earnings is the big one to watch in the day ahead but that will only come after the market close.

Elsewhere, gold is little changed but still keeping just above $2,900. However, the technical lines appear to have shifted so that’s something to take note of in case the selling picks up in the days ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.2%
• Market index 212.3 vs 214.9 prior
• Purchase index 144.3 vs 144.0 prior
• Refinance index 572.5 vs 593.6 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.88% vs 6.93% prior

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a down week for Wall Street so far but we’re seeing risk appetite pick back up a bit in the new day. US futures are higher, led by tech shares but it might not be suggestive of much on the week. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings after the close today, as investors are looking to see if there is any repercussions from the DeepSeek emergence last month.

The drop this week has brought the S&P 500 back to test its 100-day moving average (red line). Since 2024, we’ve really only moved close to test this level four times previously.

The only real standout was arguably the late July to early August selloff in markets, so that says a lot about the bullish momentum we’ve seen over the past year.

Looking more closely to tech shares:

It’s a somewhat similar case with the Nasdaq also testing waters below its 100-day moving average (red line) just three times previously since 2024. Again, the most threatening one was the late July to early August rout but investors took that on the chin before getting back up in defending the 200-day moving average (blue line).

So, is the drop this time around a different story?

Well, it is certainly turning out to be a rather interesting test of risk appetite for market sentiment I would say. We’ve been conditioned to outperformance by the Magnificent Seven and AI developments. But at least for once now, things might not be all sunshine and rainbows.

For more than a year already, this is a market that has been expecting positive takeaways from Nvidia’s earnings and it’s no different this week.

However, the results might not be the main thing to watch out for today. There will be questions on capital expenditures and AI spending, more specifically the pace of that. Is it too much and is it going to slow down? And arguably the most important thing is to see how Nvidia addresses the impact of DeepSeek to the AI space and their future planning.

To put short, it’s all about seeing how Nvidia spins the narrative to show that they are able to adapt and continue to shine in this AI bubble economy.

If investors are not convinced by that, the fallout might be something that could be rather painful for risk trades. That considering how the technicals are shaping up as seen above. So, therein lies the risk as we approach Nvidia’s earnings later today.

As such, the early rise in US futures might not offer much suggestion of the potential pitfall that investors might fall into should Nvidia fail to deliver. It hasn’t happened for a quite a while but never say never when it comes to markets and trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Kremlin said that “contacts are being prepared at the expert level through the ministries of foreign affairs”. Adding that a Trump-Putin meeting is still on the cards but only after thorough preparations have been made. No further details were given as to where or when that might happen.

Meanwhile, Ukraine president Zelenskyy is to make a trip to Washington later this week here. It is presumably to sign a deal for mineral resources, but we’ll see about that. The Kremlin touched on that but isn’t commenting much: “Whether it will be (to sign) the aforementioned agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Kremlin said that “contacts are being prepared at the expert level through the ministries of foreign affairs”. Adding that a Trump-Putin meeting is still on the cards but only after thorough preparations have been made. No further details were given as to where or when that might happen.

Meanwhile, Ukraine president Zelenskyy is to make a trip to Washington later this week here. It is presumably to sign a deal for mineral resources, but we’ll see about that. The Kremlin touched on that but isn’t commenting much: “Whether it will be (to sign) the aforementioned agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 27/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.