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​Seven & i Holdings, the Japanese conglomerate known for its 7-Eleven convenience stores, has been at the center of significant acquisition discussions. In late 2024, Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard proposed a $47 billion takeover bid, which led the founding Ito family to consider a management buyout (MBO) to retain control. The Ito family sought support from various investors, including Japanese trading house Itochu Corporation.

Initially, Itochu contemplated investing approximately 1 trillion yen ($6.69 billion) into the MBO. However, by February 2025, Itochu decided against participating, citing limited synergies between its existing food and beverage operations and Seven & i’s business. Additionally, Itochu’s ownership of FamilyMart, a direct competitor to 7-Eleven, posed potential conflicts. Despite Itochu’s withdrawal, the Ito family continued to explore partnerships with private equity firms, such as Apollo Global Management, to pursue the buyout. ​This now appears to have been halted.

This development underscores the complexities of large-scale acquisitions in Japan, especially when balancing domestic interests with foreign investment proposals.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg reports that the Trump Administration is considering pulling funding for Moderna’s bird flu vaccine.

No further details on the report for now. ‘Considering’ pulling funding is not pulling funding, lets see how this plays out.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, sees the yen’s recent rise as aligned with economic fundamentals, dismissing any disparity. He highlighted strong GDP growth and 4% inflation in January, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate hikes.

The background to this is:

• JPY has strengthened to 149 per dollar, rebounding from last year’s low of nearly 162
• Markets anticipate continued BOJ tightening while the U.S. Federal Reserve considers rate cuts.
• The BOJ raised rates to 0.5% in January
• Further hikes are dependent on sustained inflation and wage growth
• Economists expect another increase to 0.75% by Q3

Info comes via Reuters (gated).

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’.

Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come to that.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump has issued an executive order to implement DOGE’s (that’s the Department of Government Efficiency, not the **** coin) cost efficiency initiative.

• This is in reference to federal spending on contracts, grants, loans.
• The order requires government payments and travel expenses to be justified and made publicly available where possible
• Requires agencies to immediately review all contracts and grants – White House
• Requires agency heads to work with the DOGE team leads to review and terminate all unnecessary contracts

Info comes via White House statement.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

• I am dedicated to working with Congress in making trump’s tax cuts permanent

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Major US indices close the session mixed
• Nvidia will announce earnings after the close. What are investors expecting?
• Axios: Trump to continue with the tariffs next week on Canada and Mexico
• Deutsche Bank gives up longstanding bearish bias on the euro
• Crude oil settles down $0.31 at $68.62
• Bitcoin trades to the lowest level since November 11
• Trump terminates Venezuela deal
• US sells 7-year notes at 4.194% vs 4.203% WI
• Fed’s Bostic: Inflation is high, but they have seen a lot of progress
• Trump uses the ‘competitor’ code word for China
• Trump: Wants a balanced budget in reasonably short period of time
• Japan top FX diplomat Mimura: Doesn’t see disparity in FX moves and data
• BOE’s Dhingra: Many of the forces that fuelled trade expansion have diminished
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -2332K vs +2605K expected
• US January new home sales 657K vs 680K expected
• US copper tariffs are a bizarre strategy but highlight a real shortage
• Lowe’s highlights sluggish US home-related spending
• Canada January advanced wholesale trade +1.8%
• Full text of the US-Ukraine investment deal released. Includes infrastructure and ports
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Firmer dollar; stocks up awaiting Nvidia earnings
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 February -1.2% vs -6.6% prior

There was little in the way of economic data in the North American session. US New home sales fell to an annualized sales pace of 657K vs 680K.

• Single family sales -10.5%
• Months of supply at 9 vs 8 prior
• Prices +3.7% y/y to $446,300

All regions except the west saw large drops in new home sales. Home builders were downcast in the most-recent earnings calls.

Canada wholesale trade rose by 1.8%, while the weekly crude oil data showed an unexpected drawdown of -2332K vs an expected build of 2605K.

• Gasoline +369K vs -849K exp
• Distillates +3908K vs -1488K exp

President Donald Trump held a press conference after his cabinet meeting and after an awkward commentary from Elon Musk wearing his “TECH SUPPORT” t-shirt, the President outlined his economic and trade priorities, emphasizing a commitment to balancing the U.S. budget within a relatively short timeframe—potentially within the next one to two years. He reiterated his stance on tariffs, postponing those on Canada and Mexico until April 2, despite previously stating they would proceed in early March. Trump also signaled upcoming 25% tariffs on European autos and other goods, warning that the EU may attempt retaliation. While asserting that the U.S. does not need Canadian lumber, he suggested that many tariffs would remain in place, though not all.

On China, Trump took a mixed approach, calling the country a competitor while also stressing a strong relationship with President Xi. He expressed a desire for China to invest in the U.S. and reciprocated with U.S. investment in China. However, he did not take a firm stance on whether China should refrain from using force to take Taiwan.

A notable immigration policy announcement involved selling a “Gold Card” for $5 million to attract top-tier workers, a plan Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested could generate up to $1 trillion if 200,000 cards were sold. Trump also underscored the need to double U.S. energy capacity and announced a partnership with Ukraine on rare earth minerals, though he clarified that the U.S. would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine—leaving that responsibility to Europe, a stance that could disappoint President Zelenskiy.

Later in the day, Axios reported that the White House was going to indeed start 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in March afterall. We will believe it when we see it, but for now they are back on.

US yields moved lower today with the 10-year yield moving to the lowest level since December 11. The low yield reached 4.245%. Recall that the high yield back on January 13 reached 4.805%.

The two-year yield is down 2.6 basis points or 4.074%. That represents its lowest level since October 25.

The US treasury completed its coupon auctions for the week by successfully selling seven-year notes at 4.194%. That was -0.9 basis points below the WI level at the time of the auction. All three auctions this week, had a negative tail indicative of strong demand. For the 7 year, the domestic buyers were the more aggressive. For the two and 5-year notes auctioned earlier this week.

In the Forex,

EURUSD: The EURUSD solidified a ceiling between 1.0527 and 1.0532 (three separate highs going back to end of January). The high price today reached 1.0528 before rotating back to the downside. Going into the close, the price is trading between its 200-hour moving average of 1.0472 and its 100 hour moving average 1.0486. Moving outside of those moving averages will shift the bias in the direction of the break.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has been trading above and below its 100 day moving average at 1.2847 over the last five trading days. Today the price moved higher and away from that moving average peaking at 1.2715. The current price is back down at 1.2673. The buyers made a play today. The price needs to stay above the 100 day moving average if they are to keep control. If the price moves back below that 100 day moving average, I would expect disappointment and the buyers to turn to sellers.

USDJPY: The USDJPY traded above and below its 50% midpoint September 2024 low at 149.22 for the fourth day in a row. The current prices trading at 149.10 tilting the short-term bias to the downside (below the 50% midpoint level. The 100 hour moving average is higher at 149.552 and will be another upside target that would need to be broken and stay broken, to give the buyers some confidence for more upside probing. Today the price tried to extend above that level but failed. On the downside, the low price from December 2024, came in at 148.64. Getting and staying below that level increases the bearish bias.

For other key technical levels and analysis click here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a light data ageanda for the session ahead with New Zealand data and then Australian data.

The Australian capex numbers are inouts in Q4 GDP that’s due next week, Wednesday March 5.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

NVIDIA

• 4Q ADJ EPS 89C, EST. 84C
• 4Q ADJ REV. $39.3B, EST. $38.25B
• 4Q ADJ GROSS MARGIN 73.5%, EST. 73.5%

More:

• 4Q DATA CENTRE REVENUE $35.6B, EST. $34.09B
• SEES 1Q REVENUE $43.0B +/- 2%

More:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In volatile up and down trading, the major indices are closing the session with mixed results.

• Dow industrial average fell -186.87 points or -0.43% at 43434.29.
• S&P index closed near unchanged. The index rose 0.92 points or 0.02% at 5956.17.
• NASDAQ index rose modestly by 48.88 points or 0.26% at 19075.26

The small-cap Russell 2000 also closed modestly higher with a gain of 4.102 points or 0.19% at 2174.18..

The big event after the close Nvidia’s earnings expectations for EPS of $0.84 a share on revenues of $38.1 billion. Shares of Nvidia closed at 131.28. Technically, Nvidia shares are trading above its 200 day moving average at $126.40, but below its 100 day moving average at $136.50.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closes today. Analysts project record revenue of approximately $38.1 billion, marking a 70% increase from the same period last year. Net income is expected to reach around $19.6 billion, or $0.85 per share.

Year ago levels were:

• Revenues: $22.1 billion
• EPS: $0.51

The company’s performance is largely driven by the high demand for its AI and graphics processing units, especially with the rollout of its Blackwell line. .

In late January, Chinese startup DeepSeek announced the development of competitive AI models using less expensive chips, leading to concerns about potential shifts in demand for Nvidia’s high-end products.

Investors will also be closely monitoring Nvidia’s guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, particularly regarding the continued demand for its AI chips and any strategic responses to emerging competitors like DeepSeek. The company’s ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial in maintaining its market position and investor confidence.

Shares of Nvidia are trading up $4.95 or 3.92% at $131.40

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The White House still plans to implement the 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week. This is despite the comments from Pres. Trump earlier today that those tariffs would start in April.

The USDCAD has seen a modest bounce to 1.4335. The high for the day reached 1.4366. The pair is back above key resistance between 1.4268 and 1.42789.

For a look at the technicals driving the USDCAD, click on the video below:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.