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The post with the breaking news is here:

• If you hear of an incident at DCA airport in Washington – there is an aircraft down

Trump has issued a statement:

• “I have been fully briefed on the terrible accident which just took place at Reagan National Airport. May God Bless their souls. Thank you for the incredible work being done by our first responders. I am monitoring the situation and will provide more details as they arise.”

What we know:

• a military Black Hawk helicopter with 3 personnel on board
• collided with a passenger aircraft with 4 crew and 60 passengers on board
• over the Potomac River in Washington DC, near Ronald Reagan airport
• a major rescue operation is underway
• there are multiple fatalities

FAA statement:

• “A PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet collided in midair with a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter while on approach to Runway 33 at Reagan Washington National Airport around 9 p.m. local time. PSA was operating Flight 5342 as American Airlines. It departed from Wichita, Kansas.”

There are video clips showing the collision, and fireball and the two craft falling into the river. Link to one here.

This is horrendous news.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Appears a commercial jet struck a helicopter.

Commercial Aircraft reportedly impacted a D.C. Police Helicopter.

Reports are still sketchy at this stage.

Emergency services responding. All takeoffs and landings at Ronald Reagan Airport have been halted.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Commerce Secretary nominee Lutnick:

• If Canada addresses the flow of fentanyl into the US, there will be no tariffs.

Some other commetns:

• The 25% tariff threat is about the border, and can be avoided if Trump is satisfied with Canada’s actions
• Broader tariffs may still be coming though
• Canada’s dairy sector is in Trump’s crosshairs for USMCA talks

There you have it, though you would much rather hear that from Trump than Lutnick, who often differs from his deputies.

The USDCAD has reached new lows to 1.4432 and moves away from swing area on the topside between 1.4448 and 1.4466. On the downside the 100 and 200-hour moving averages comes in at 1.4380 and 1.4385 respectively.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nissan Motor is offering voluntary buyouts to workers at three of its U.S. factories as part of its plan to reduce production by approximately 25% due to weak sales, according to a report in Japanese media, Nikkei.

The affected employees include hourly workers at assembly plants in Smyrna, Tennessee, and Canton, Mississippi, as well as an engine plant in Decherd, Tennessee.

The buyout program is scheduled to begin in March.

***

While this would seem to be Nissan-specific issue its not the sort of news the Federal Reserve is going to be happy to hear.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The response to a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on hold has been yen buying in Asia morning trade:

There is no fresh news of note. Although I did posit the potential for a lower USD/JPY here earlier:

• Arrangements for a meeting between Trump and Japan PM Ishiba close to being finalised

I wasn’t really convinced …. but here we are.

One thing to be aware of is liquidity is thinner than normal again today with Singapore and Hong Kong on holidays (mainland China also):

• Markets in Asia will be disrupted by holidays again today

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian terms of trade data for Q4 2024:

Australia Import Price Index +0.2% q/q

• expected +1.5%, prior -1.4%
• for the y/y, -1.9%

& Export Price Index +3.6% q/q

• expected +2.5%, prior –4.3%
• for the y/y -8.6%

Resources higher (exports).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Fall After Fed Holds Rates – S&P Down 0.5%

Major US stock indices declined overnight after the Federal Reserve held interest rates as expected and signalled no urgency in adjusting policy. The Dow Jones fell by 0.31%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.47%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.51% by the close of trading.

The US dollar edged higher, with the DXY gaining 0.1% to reach 107.99. US Treasury yields also moved higher, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 4.218% and the 10-year yield increasing marginally by 0.2 basis points to 4.534%.

Oil prices fell after US stockpiles increased more than expected, with Brent crude down 0.8% to $76.82 per barrel and WTI declining by 1.11% to $72.95 per barrel. Gold prices eased in response to the stronger dollar, losing 0.24% to settle at $2,756.65.

ECB Next to Announce Interest Rate Decision

Following the recent decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank is set to announce its latest rate decision later today. Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point cut, lowering rates from 3.15% to 2.90%. Any unexpected decision could trigger significant moves in the euro.

Market reaction is likely to be driven by key updates in the ECB’s policy statement and later by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Given the Federal Reserve’s less dovish stance, a more accommodative ECB could attract major long-term market participants, particularly if interest rate differentials widen.

More Central Bank Action Ahead for Traders

The past few trading sessions have been eventful, and today promises to be another volatile day, particularly in the latter half. The Asian session is expected to remain relatively calm, with limited macroeconomic data and many financial centres closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.

However, market activity is likely to pick up significantly once Europe opens, with the ECB’s rate decision as the key focus. In between the ECB announcement and the subsequent press conference, US Advance GDP data and weekly unemployment claims will also be released, potentially driving volatility in EUR/USD.

Later in the day, US Pending Home Sales data will be published, though market sentiment will likely be shaped by earlier economic releases and any fresh geopolitical developments.

The post General Market Analysis – 30/01/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The Trump administration plans to rescind the Biden rule that requires states to set declining targets for greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles.

ICE vehicle makers in the US will benefit, EV makers not so much.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ New Zealand business survey

Business confidence slips to 54.4, still a solid reading

• prior 62.3

Activity Outlook, same, 45.8

• prior 50.3

ANZ remarks on the results:

• Past own activity, (the best GDP indicator) was stable close to zero, while past employment continued to lift, though at -7 it remains in contraction.
• Pricing and cost indicators lifted, with the downward trends that have been in place over the past year showing signs of flattening off. Inflation expectations lifted a touch but remain within the target band at 2.7%

NZD/USD is up a few tics on the session, more reflecting a tiny bit of softening for the USD that is down a little across the majors board. More of a wiggle than a move really. NZD/USD is around 0.5666 currently.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Foreign Minister Joly says discussed the flow of fentanyl and precursors with US Secretary of State Rubio

Says she is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about the talks related to tariffs.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Plans are being finalised for a meeting between Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and
President Trump.

• The proposed venue will be Washington
• On February 7

—

I don’t expect current matters to feature prominently, but if they do, both sides would like to see a lower USD/JPY.

• Trump wants a softer dollar
• Ishiba wants a stronger yen

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Some back-and-forth on the Fed decision but not much change in markets on net
• Yields are back near unchanged…(at least out the curve)
• Powell clarifies inflation comment change in language, and the dollar dips
• Powell Q&A: My assessment that rates were ‘meaningfully restrictive’ hasn’t changed
• Powell opening statement: The economy is strong
• A comparison of the December 2024/January 2025 FOMC statements
• The full statement from the January 2025 FOMC meeting
• Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%
• What’s priced in for the Federal Reserve ahead of today’s FOMC decision
• Lutnick: Chinese tariffs should be the highest
• More from Lutnick:DeepSeek was able to create AI dirt cheap, but leveraging US technology
• Lutnick: If Canada addresses flow of fentanyl into the US, there will be no tariffs
• Major European indices close mostly higher
• Commerce Secretary nominee says he prefers ‘across-the-board’ tariffs
• Macklem Q&A: Movement in the Canadian dollar hasn’t constrained us so far
• There is a key line in BOC Governor Macklem’s opening statement
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow slashed to 2.3% from 3.2%
• Bank of Canada releases economic forecasts: Sees 2025 GDP growth at 1.8% vs 2.1% prior
• Bank of Canada full interest rate statement for January 2025
• Bank of Canada rate decision cuts rates by 25 basis points, as expected
• BOE’s Bailey: Financial stability is a foundation for growth, there is not a trade-off
• Mexican President says she does not think Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Feb 1
• US advanced goods trade balance for December -122.1B vs -105.6B estimate
• US December advance wholesale inventories -0.5% vs -0.2% prior
• WSJ Timiraos: Core PCE forecast at 0.18% given CPI, PPI and Import prices
• Kickstart the FX trading day for Jan 29, w/ a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the FOMC decision

Two interest rate decisions. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points as the central bank prepares for potential tariffs. The US FOMC kept rates unchanged.

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 3% from 3.25%.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted the close correlation between the Canadian dollar’s depreciation and trade threats from the U.S., noting that future policy decisions will increasingly account for its impact. The threat of tariffs was a significant factor in the Bank’s prior decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the importance of risk management.

Macklem stressed the need to stabilize the economy before potential tariffs take effect, with a focus on supporting growth if tariffs lead to downward inflationary pressures. However, if inflation pressures rise, the Bank will prioritize guarding against persistent inflation to prevent tariff-driven price increases from broadening to wages and other prices.

He said that while quantitative easing (QE) remains unnecessary at this stage, Macklem underscored the cautious use of forward guidance as a policy tool. The BoC remains committed to balancing inflation risks and fostering economic resilience amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

ON inflation and growth:

Inflation:

• Inflation remains near 2%, with business and consumer expectations normalized and no evidence of broad-based inflationary pressures.
• Shelter price inflation is still elevated but is gradually declining.
• Temporary tax measures may cause some CPI volatility, but inflation is expected to remain close to the 2% target over the next two years.

Growth:

• Economic activity is gaining momentum as past interest rate cuts stimulate the economy.
• Lower borrowing costs are driving growth in the housing market and consumer spending on big-ticket items like cars.
• Household spending is broadening to other consumer items and is expected to strengthen further.
• Business investment has been weak but is forecasted to improve gradually.
• Export growth is supported by new capacity in the oil and gas sector.

For the Fed, there were some changes in the statement on the economy and inflation:

• December: “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.”
• January: “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid.”
• Key Change:
  • December: Recognized a softening in labor market conditions and a slight rise in unemployment.
  • January: Describes the unemployment rate as stable and labor market conditions as solid, suggesting less concern about labor market weakness.

2. Inflation:

• December: “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.”
• January: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
• Key Change:
  • December: Acknowledged progress toward the inflation target.
  • January: Removed reference to progress, focusing instead on inflation remaining elevated, signaling ongoing concerns.

The inflation change was thought to be a bias tilt to the hawkish side but later Powell clarified that it was just a “language cleanup” . As Steve Liesman commented on CNBC, it is not good when you have to explain what you meant in what you said.

Overall, Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed that his view of rates being “meaningfully restrictive” has not changed, emphasizing that current policy is well-positioned to achieve the Fed’s inflation goals. He clarified that the removal of the phrase “progress towards the inflation goal” in the Fed’s statement was not intended to signal a policy shift but was instead a matter of “language cleanup.” Powell also noted that further labor market weakening is not necessary to meet the inflation target, as the Fed sees clear pathways for continued disinflation.

Powell highlighted signs of progress in reducing inflation, including a steady decline in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), though he acknowledged that “non-market” prices remain stubbornly high. He expressed confidence in further disinflation being in the pipeline, signaling optimism about the Fed’s ability to guide inflation down. However, he stressed the importance of patience, stating that the Fed is not in a hurry to make further adjustments and will wait for more clarity from the economy and government policy.

The Fed Chair underscored that current policy remains above most estimates of the neutral rate and is already having meaningful effects on the economy. While acknowledging AI’s significant impact on financial markets, Powell reiterated that the Fed’s focus remains squarely on macroeconomic conditions. The Fed is holding steady for now, awaiting additional data and developments before making any further policy moves.

As the dust settled, the odds of a cut in March moved down to 22% from 30%, while the chance for a June cut fell to 71% from 74% and for December remained unchanged at 61%

As the day closes, Pres. Trump is none to pleased saying:

“Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation. I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing, but I will do much more than stopping inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again! The Fed has done a terrible fob on Bank Regulation. Treasury is going to lead the effort to cut irrecessary Regulation, and will unleash lending for all American people and businesses. If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, ‘green” energy, and fake climate change. Inflation would never have been a problem. Instead, we suffered from the worst Inflation in the History of our Country!”

What did the market do?

The USD is closing marginally higher (with the exception of the USDJPY which saw the greenback move down -0.14%.A summary of the greenback’s moves today against the major currencies shows:

• EUR: +0.14%
• JPY -0.14%
• GBP, unchanged
• CHF +0.37%
• CAD +0.17%
• AUD, +0.38%
• NZD , +0.25%

In debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end marginally lower, However, yields have come off from their highest levels:

• 2-year 4.219%, +1.5 basis points
• 5 year 4.339%, -0.5 basis points
• 10 year 4.536%, -1.3 basis points
• 30 year 4.778%, -1.2 basis points

US stocks closes lower on the day with the Nasdaq the laggard:

• Dow industrial average -136.83 points or -0.31% at 44713.52
• S&P index -28.39 points or -0.47% at 6039.31
• NASDAQ index -101.26 points or -0.51% at 19632.32
• Russell 2000 -5.76 points or -0.25% at 2283.09.

After the close, Microsoft, Tesla and Meta announced earnings:

• Microsoft shares are currently down -1.43%
• Meta shares are trading down -0.76%
• Tesla shares are trading up 3.32%

IBM also announced, and it’s stock price is up 7.7%

On the economic calendar, the US trade deficit soared to $-122 billion. Importers are probably reacting to the expected Trump tariffs. With inventories also lower than expected, the Atlanta FedGDPNow growth estimate for the fourth quarter tumble to 2.3% from 3.2%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.