Articles

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 3 January -3.7% vs -12.6% prior
• Trump mulls a national emergency declaration to allow for new tariff program – report
• Cable turns lower on the week as dollar catches a bid
• The bond market stays in focus with US jobs report eyed
• Eurozone December final consumer confidence -14.5 vs -14.5 prelim
• Eurozone November PPI +1.6% vs +1.5% m/m expected
• European indices seen more tepid at the open today
• France November trade balance -€7.09 billion vs -€7.67 billion prior
• Eurostoxx futures -0.4% in early European trading
• Germany November retail sales -0.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
• Germany November industrial orders -5.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• A couple of light releases to move things along in the session ahead
• Chinese yuan slide continues on the week
• FX option expiries for 8 January 10am New York cut
• Japan December consumer confidence 36.2 vs 36.4 prior

It’s been a pretty quiet session in terms of the newsflow but in the final part of it, we got a report from CNN saying that Trump mulled a national emergency declaration to allow for the new tariff program.

This sent the US Dollar higher and had a negative impact on risk assets with stocks paring gains and commodities falling. Will Trump deny this news as well later in the day? Keep an eye on that.

In the American session, we have Fed’s Waller speaking and we get some US labour market data as we get the US ADP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. We will conclude the day with the FOMC Meeting Minutes although as it usually the case, the release shouldn’t change much for the markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -12.6%
• Market index 168.4 vs 174.9 prior
• Purchase index 127.7 vs 136.7 prior
• Refinance index 401.1 vs 395.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.99% vs 6.97% prior

After a big plunge in the week before, mortgage applications are falling further again to start the new year with purchase activity weighing this time. That is partially offset by slight rise in refinancing activity, after the sharp plunge in the week prior here. With rates continuing to hold higher, the outlook isn’t a bright one to start the year for the mortgage market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This is the story that looks to have accelerated the dollar gains in the past 5 minutes. More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The biggest loser today is sterling as cable is now down 0.8% to 1.2374. On the week itself, the pair is now down 0.3% as it erases the Monday gains and threatens back below the low last week.

The April 2024 low near 1.2300 remains the critical support point at this juncture and it look like we might be headed towards that next.

The move we’re seeing is not just tied to GBP/USD though. It’s a broad-based bid in the dollar as bond yields continue to rise, as noted here.

EUR/USD is now down 0.4% to near 1.0300 while USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 158.40 on the day. Elsewhere, AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6210 and NZD/USD down 0.5% to 0.5613 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the past week, Treasuries have picked up from where they left off in the late stages of last year. 10-year yields in the US are still on the rise and we’re now closing in on the highs seen in 2024 near 4.70%. The actual high last year was around 4.74% but that may not offer too much of an obstacle if sellers continue to pile in and take out the 4.70% mark this week. Are we on war path back towards 5%?

I wouldn’t rule it out, in all honesty. At some point last year, it would be unthinkable considering the Fed’s rate outlook. But all it takes is one election result and how the tables have turned.

As Adam pointed out here, addressing the deficit doesn’t seem to be a priority for Trump. And understandably so, as it is an issue that no president has a handle on dealing with it. Ultimately, it will just be a case of kicking the can down the road as always.

If yields are headed back to 5%, that’s a major risk that broader markets really need to consider.

The dollar is already in a strong position to start the new year and could gather more of a tailwind as such. Right now, the narrative is largely driven by Trump’s strong policy hand. So, therein lies the risk for markets as we await his inauguration later this month.

But if yields are to take flight again from hereon, I fear that it’s going to be a painful start to the year for risk trades. US indices are already looking a little shaky after yesterday’s data. Now, the focus turns towards the US jobs report on Friday instead.

If labour market conditions are still hot and reaffirms more cause for the Fed to pause, it could be the trigger that gets the ball rolling in the bond market for yields to surge again. So, remember to keep a watchful eye on the Friday data.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -13.8
• Economic confidence 93.7 vs 95.6 expected
• Prior 95.8; revised to 95.6
• Industrial confidence -14.1 vs -11.7 expected
• Prior -11.1; revised to -11.4
• Services confidence 5.9 vs 5.8 expected
• Prior 5.3

Slight delay in the release by the source. The drop in economic confidence sees it fall to its lowest since November 2020, as the industrial recession in the euro area continues to keep a heavy drag on overall sentiment. That is of course exemplified by Germany’s woes, as they are the biggest contributor – or should I say anchor in this case – to the overall Eurozone.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.4%

Looking at the details, the jump here largely owes to a spike in energy prices. If you strip that out, producer prices were only up 0.1% on the month. The breakdown shows a jump in energy prices by 5.4%, slightly offset by declines in prices for intermediate goods (-0.1%) and durable consumer goods (-0.2%). The prices for capital goods and non-durable consumer goods were stable on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 9/1/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX flat
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE flat
• Spain IBEX +0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

The changes are at least better than what futures were suggesting earlier in the day at least. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.2% for now, taking some of the edge off from the losses in Wall Street yesterday at least. But again, it is still early in the day and the US session will be a whole other beast to handle later on.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -€7.67 billion; revised to -€7.52 billion

The French trade deficit narrowed slightly in November with exports seen up by 2.9% while imports were seen up by 1.8% on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major US stock indices of continuing in their tumble with the NASDAQ leading the declines.

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow and industrial average -0.63%
• S&P index -1.24%
• NASDAQ index -2.01%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -1.02%.

The NASDAQ index is moving away from it’s 200-hour moving average of 19639.85 after breaking below earlier today retracing back to the moving average level and finding willing sellers (green line on the chart below).

Nvidia shares are currently down -5.93%

The US 10 year yield has reached a high of 4.699%. It is currently trading just below that at 4.687%. That is up from it September low of 4.60%. The next target comes at the April 25 high yield of 4.74%.

Risk sentiment is also being reflected in the price of bitcoin. It is currently down $6000 or -5.88% and $96,279

Meanwhile, crude oil is moving higher . The price is settling at $74.25, up $0.69 or 0.94%.

Despite a rise in the US dollar, the price of gold is also higher asrisk to safety flows seem to dominate. The price is up $11.62 or 0.44% at $2647.80.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.5%

This makes it a double whammy in terms of German data alongside the industrial orders here today. Not even Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales were enough to salvage the month, even if retail sales are seen 2.5% higher compared to November last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.