Articles

• Eurostoxx +0.3%
• Germany DAX +0.2%
• France CAC 40 +0.2%
• UK FTSE -0.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.6%
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

The DAX and IBEX continue to scale to fresh record levels to look to end the month on a high. Despite a setback at the start of this week, stocks have bounced back quite well in Europe. It helps being less tech heavy I guess. In any case, US futures are also hoping for a more solid bounce back this week with S&P 500 futures now up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 99.5; revised to 99.6

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.8%
• HICP +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expected
• Prior +2.8%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the USA President’s Day on Monday, 17 February, 2025. 

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

MT4/5:

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Fx / Crypto Pairs:

Precious Metals:

Spot Enegies:

Indices:

Energy Futures:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

cTrader:

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +0).

Forex & Crypto Pairs:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post USA President’s Day Holiday Trading Schedule – 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.03%, Shanghai Composite down 0.06%, Hang Seng up 0.14% ASX up 0.57%
• Commodities : Gold at $2796.35 (0.13%), Silver at $31.65 (0.78%), Brent Oil at $75.49 (-0.09%), WTI Oil at $72.64 (0.13%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.523, UK 10-year yield at 4.6070, Germany 10-year yield at 2.571

News & Data:

• (CAD) Overnight Rate  3.00% vs 3.00% expected
• (USD) Federal Funds Rate  4.50% to 4.50% expected

Markets Update:

Japanese and Australian markets climbed on Thursday, diverging from Wall Street, which fell overnight after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Several Asia-Pacific markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.42%, while the Topix index gained 0.28% amid choppy trading. SoftBank Group shares dipped 0.5% following reports of its discussions to invest up to $25 billion in OpenAI. However, Japanese tech stocks advanced, with Advantest surging 5.12% and Tokyo Electron up 2.03%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.7%, extending its previous session gains. The country’s export price index increased 3.6% in Q4 2024 but declined 8.6% over the year. Import prices edged up 0.2% for the quarter but fell 1.9% annually, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

India’s Nifty 50 opened 0.19% higher, while the BSE Sensex Index started flat.

In the U.S., markets fell after the Fed’s first policy decision of the year. The S&P 500 dropped 0.47% to 6,039.31, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.51% to 19,632.32, and the Dow Jones shed 136.83 points, or 0.31%, to 44,713.52.

Nvidia tumbled 4.1% after a strong prior session. The stock hit session lows following reports that Trump administration officials had discussed restricting its chip sales to China due to competition from the country’s DeepSeek AI model.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:15 PM GMT – EUR Main Refinancing Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Advance GDP q/q
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims
• 01:45 PM GMT – EUR ECB Press Conference

The post Thursday 30th January 2025: Asian Markets Rise as Wall Street Slips After Fed Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior +0.9%

Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the prices for consumer goods (+0.5%), intermediate goods (+0.1%), capital goods (+0.2%), durable consumer goods (+0.5%), and agricultural goods (+0.3%). Import prices for energy also rose by 0.3% on the month and if you strip that out, total import prices were seen up 0.3% in December. All that being said, the annual average for import prices was down by 1.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. However, that is largely a result of lower energy prices. Excluding that, the import price index was only down 0.1% last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior CHF 5.42 billion; revised to CHF 6.11 billion

The Swiss trade surplus fell in December as exports slumped by 11.3% while imports were seen down just 0.8% on the month. Swiss watch exports are marked down by 5.4% year-on-year, reflecting some added softness in that particular area this season compared to a year ago.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.4%

On average in 2024, it is estimated that the French economy grew by 1.1%. Here’s the breakdown of the quarterly situation for last year:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The central bank will be cutting rates by 25 bps today and will tee up another similar rate cut for March. I wouldn’t expect a clear pre-commitment to the latter but it will be something close to that at least. ECB president Lagarde should reaffirm that if things continue down this trajectory, then another rate cut in March is the “right move”.

And that should pretty much sum up how things will play out for the ECB today.

The disinflation process is still facing a couple of bumps along the road but with a weakening economy, policymakers have to spin the narrative to fit the pieces all together. And that means talking up progress in the battle against inflation while acknowledging softer economic conditions, but not as bad to stir up stagflation worries. That unless you’re Germany I guess.

If the ECB does its job well, then the euro shouldn’t see too much impact from the key risk event today.

Traders have priced in ~96% odds of a 25 bps rate cut today and ~46 bps of rate cuts in total for the January and March decisions. That’s pretty close to saying that it’s more or less fully priced in.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tech shares are the ones looking to bounce back again with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures up 0.5% currently. It’s still early in the day of course and Wall Street tends to have its own take on things later on. It’s been a testing week for Nvidia especially after the Monday slide. The chip giant saw a bounce on Tuesday but fell by 4% again yesterday. It will remain a focus point for equities in the day ahead.

After the close yesterday, we did get earnings from Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla here. They were less than impressive with Microsoft bearing brunt of the declines in after hours trading as AI spending disappointed. But the broader market mood is switching up as seen above now.

A U-turn in the market on Fed sentiment after the initial statement has also definitely helped with that. Not to mention Trump also stating that he will do what it takes to bring inflation down here.

It’s still early in the day and later, we will also have earnings releases from Apple, Visa, and MasterCard to watch out for.

But at this point, all eyes will be on Nvidia – related headlines as well – and tech shares to carry the risk mood until the weekend.

Besides that, don’t forget that we’ve also entered the month-end tunnel now. But given the many other factors in play this week, month-end flows might not be the most significant factor in play. I’d still wager the whole Nvidia/DeepSeek issue to dictate the storyboard for the time being.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The FOMC meeting decision was as expected and the Fed made no new approaches to their next decision in March as well. Traders are now seeing the next rate cut to be for June with ~47 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year as a whole. The pricing here definitely reflects a step up in the last two weeks but they’re not materially different.

I mean, traders were pricing in ~42 bps of rate cuts for the year prior to the US jobs report earlier this month. So, there’s some context to the change we’ve seen in the latest couple of weeks.

Going back to the Fed yesterday, they tweaked their statement a little in removing the phrase “inflation has made progress”. It outlines a more neutral stance but at this stage, they will still be more inclined to cut rates again than the opposite.

And Fed chair Powell reaffirmed all of that in his press conference as he says that they were just “cleaning up” on the language and communication in the statement. Besides that, he also talked up the potential for further progress in the disinflation process and that saw the dollar get pulled back.

All in all, it still points to the Fed more than likely staying on hold again in March. That should be the bare minimum in terms of what is likely to be certain at this stage.

As for the first rate cut, the timing can easily fall between May to September depending on the data. But in all likelihood, the threshold to trigger the Fed to acting earlier may be higher than it would be to act later.

The inflation and labour market data will play a pivotal role in determining that. But at the same time, so will Trump.

He certainly wasn’t too pleased with the Fed’s position yesterday, as seen here. And he’s certainly aware that if he escalates trade tensions and enact tariffs, it’s going to give the Fed less certainty. And that means kicking the can down the road on the next rate cut.

Essentially, the Fed seems to have positioned this in a way now to say that “we’re ready to cut again if the data supports the narrative”. But at the same time, they’ve thrown the ball back to Trump’s court to enable that situation and let things fall into place.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan expects an increase in debt-service costs by 25% by 2028
• Trump says he has been briefed on ‘terrible accident’ – helicoper and plane collide
• RBA looks at how changes in monetary policy flow through to the economy, impact inflation
• Reserve Bank of Australia Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System) speaking soon
• Goldman Sachs still expect June and December Federal Reserve rate cuts
• If you hear of an incident at DCA airport in Washington – there is an aircraft down
• Nissan to cut worker numbers at Tennessee and Mississippi plants
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino is speaking soon
• Yen finding strength, USD/JPY around 154.50
• Goldman Sachs CEO sees narrow range of 2025 Federal Reserve rates amid inflation concerns
• National Australia Bank forecasting a February Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut
• Australian export prices rise in Q4 2024
• Trump to rescind rule requiring states to set declining targets 4 greenhouse gas emissions
• New Zealand January business confidence 54.4 (prior 62.3)
• Canadian Foreign Minister Joly says ‘cautiously optimistic’ about tariff talks with Rubio
• Arrangements for a meeting between Trump and Japan PM Ishiba close to being finalised
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says tariff threat weighing on CAD
• Subtle shift in the FOMC statement language indicates why rate cuts have been put on hold
• Goldman Sachs says Federal Reserve is waiting for further inflation progress to cut again
• Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates say ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 Jan. The BOC cuts rates by 25 bps. Fed remains steady.
• New Zealand data – December 2024 trade balance surplus (exports up, imports weaker)
• Markets in Asia will be disrupted by holidays again today
• Trump speaking – he is really upset the Federal Reserve didn’t cut interest rates
• Microsoft and Tesla shares lower after earnings
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 30 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

JPY
was the notable mover on the session. USD/JPY traded from an early
session high around 155.20 to lows circa 154.30 before stabilising
somewhat (its poking 154.60 as I update).

There
was no major fresh news for either the USD or JPY. One item I did
note was that plans have firmed up for a meeting between Japan’s
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump in Washington on
February 7. In the post to let everyone know, I speculated that there
might be some currency discussion between the two, a lower dollar and a
higher yen would be a win for each of them. I thought perhaps such a
discussion would be unlikely, but maybe there was something in it. I
can’t find anything else that may have catalysed the move down
for the pair today.

One
thing I will add is that liquidity was thinner than normal with Hong
Kong and Singapore markets out for holidays (mainland China too).

Elsewhere
major FX was relatively subdued. As I post the USD is gaining a few
tics.

In
non-market news, there was a horrendous collision in Washington DC
between a military helicopter and a commercial passenger plane. There
are multiple fatalities.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.