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In the past week, Treasuries have picked up from where they left off in the late stages of last year. 10-year yields in the US are still on the rise and we’re now closing in on the highs seen in 2024 near 4.70%. The actual high last year was around 4.74% but that may not offer too much of an obstacle if sellers continue to pile in and take out the 4.70% mark this week. Are we on war path back towards 5%?

I wouldn’t rule it out, in all honesty. At some point last year, it would be unthinkable considering the Fed’s rate outlook. But all it takes is one election result and how the tables have turned.

As Adam pointed out here, addressing the deficit doesn’t seem to be a priority for Trump. And understandably so, as it is an issue that no president has a handle on dealing with it. Ultimately, it will just be a case of kicking the can down the road as always.

If yields are headed back to 5%, that’s a major risk that broader markets really need to consider.

The dollar is already in a strong position to start the new year and could gather more of a tailwind as such. Right now, the narrative is largely driven by Trump’s strong policy hand. So, therein lies the risk for markets as we await his inauguration later this month.

But if yields are to take flight again from hereon, I fear that it’s going to be a painful start to the year for risk trades. US indices are already looking a little shaky after yesterday’s data. Now, the focus turns towards the US jobs report on Friday instead.

If labour market conditions are still hot and reaffirms more cause for the Fed to pause, it could be the trigger that gets the ball rolling in the bond market for yields to surge again. So, remember to keep a watchful eye on the Friday data.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -13.8
• Economic confidence 93.7 vs 95.6 expected
• Prior 95.8; revised to 95.6
• Industrial confidence -14.1 vs -11.7 expected
• Prior -11.1; revised to -11.4
• Services confidence 5.9 vs 5.8 expected
• Prior 5.3

Slight delay in the release by the source. The drop in economic confidence sees it fall to its lowest since November 2020, as the industrial recession in the euro area continues to keep a heavy drag on overall sentiment. That is of course exemplified by Germany’s woes, as they are the biggest contributor – or should I say anchor in this case – to the overall Eurozone.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.4%

Looking at the details, the jump here largely owes to a spike in energy prices. If you strip that out, producer prices were only up 0.1% on the month. The breakdown shows a jump in energy prices by 5.4%, slightly offset by declines in prices for intermediate goods (-0.1%) and durable consumer goods (-0.2%). The prices for capital goods and non-durable consumer goods were stable on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 9/1/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX flat
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE flat
• Spain IBEX +0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

The changes are at least better than what futures were suggesting earlier in the day at least. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.2% for now, taking some of the edge off from the losses in Wall Street yesterday at least. But again, it is still early in the day and the US session will be a whole other beast to handle later on.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -€7.67 billion; revised to -€7.52 billion

The French trade deficit narrowed slightly in November with exports seen up by 2.9% while imports were seen up by 1.8% on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major US stock indices of continuing in their tumble with the NASDAQ leading the declines.

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow and industrial average -0.63%
• S&P index -1.24%
• NASDAQ index -2.01%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -1.02%.

The NASDAQ index is moving away from it’s 200-hour moving average of 19639.85 after breaking below earlier today retracing back to the moving average level and finding willing sellers (green line on the chart below).

Nvidia shares are currently down -5.93%

The US 10 year yield has reached a high of 4.699%. It is currently trading just below that at 4.687%. That is up from it September low of 4.60%. The next target comes at the April 25 high yield of 4.74%.

Risk sentiment is also being reflected in the price of bitcoin. It is currently down $6000 or -5.88% and $96,279

Meanwhile, crude oil is moving higher . The price is settling at $74.25, up $0.69 or 0.94%.

Despite a rise in the US dollar, the price of gold is also higher asrisk to safety flows seem to dominate. The price is up $11.62 or 0.44% at $2647.80.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.5%

This makes it a double whammy in terms of German data alongside the industrial orders here today. Not even Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales were enough to salvage the month, even if retail sales are seen 2.5% higher compared to November last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.5%

The big dip here comes as large-scale orders were toned down again in November, compared to the month before. Incoming orders for other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles) were down 58.4% on the month and that largely contributed to the headline figure we’re seeing.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US ADP roulette and weekly jobless claims (yes, on a Wednesday) will be the main highlights for markets. That of course follows the ISM services PMI and JOLTS job openings data from yesterday. As such, European morning trade is likely to be more of a placeholder somewhat until we get to that.

Major currencies aren’t up to too much to start the day, as seen with dollar pairs above. AUD/USD did dip slightly earlier on the monthly Australia CPI data here but is now back to flattish levels again. Other than that, it’s been a quieter one so far today.

In other markets, equities had a rather rough showing with Wall Street selling off yesterday. Tech shares were the biggest losers, more than erasing the advance from Monday. That is likely to weigh on the mood slightly in Europe later to start the session. US futures are higher though, so it is helping to ease the discomfort at least.

In terms of data releases, there will be a handful in Europe later but none of which that should really make a splash. The focus stays on more US data later in the day instead.

0700 GMT – Germany November industrial orders0700 GMT – Germany November retail sales0745 GMT – France December consumer confidence0745 GMT – France November trade balance1000 GMT – Eurozone November PPI figures1000 GMT – Eurozone December final consumer confidence1000 GMT – Eurozone December economic, industrial, services confidence1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 3 January

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CNY has just touched the upper band (lower band for the yuan currency) of its daily trading range at 7.3325 for today. For some context, the PBOC fixed the pair at 7.1887 today here and it can fluctuate 2% either above or below the fix/midpoint. It’s a rough start to the year for China with the yuan suffering and stocks also dribbling lower alongside bond yields. From earlier this week: The Chinese yuan is a key spot to watch as the new year looks to get up and running

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.27%, Shanghai Composite down 1.11%, Hang Seng down 1.28% ASX up 0.77%
• Commodities : Gold at $2663.35 (0.06%), Silver at $30.64 (0.08%), Brent Oil at $77.49 (0.6%), WTI Oil at $74.76 (0.62%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.683, UK 10-year yield at 4.6830, Germany 10-year yield at 2.4855

News & Data:

• (USD) ISM Services PMI  54.1 vs 53.5 expected
• (USD) JOLTS Job Openings 8.10M vs 7.73M expected
• (CAD) Ivey PMI 54.7 vs 55.4 expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance Wednesday, mirroring losses on Wall Street due to rising Treasury yields and declining U.S. tech stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.35%, and the Topix dropped 0.59%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.23%, though the Kosdaq Index remained flat.

Samsung Electronics shares rose 3.07% despite a disappointing fourth-quarter profit forecast. The memory chip leader estimated operating profit at 6.5 trillion won ($4.47 billion), falling short of LSEG’s forecast of 7.7 trillion won. In China, the Hang Seng Index slid 0.88%, and the CSI 300 declined 0.8%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.73%.

Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings fell 2.27%, extending Tuesday’s nearly 8% drop after its inclusion in the U.S. Department of Defense list of “Chinese military companies.” Battery maker CATL, also on the list, lost 1%.

In the U.S., major indices closed lower as tech stocks dragged down the market. The S&P 500 dropped 1.11% to 5,909.03, the Dow Jones fell 0.42% to 42,528.36, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.89% to 19,489.68. Nvidia fell 6.2% after reaching a record high earlier, while Tesla declined 4% following a Bank of America downgrade due to valuation and strategy risks. Meta Platforms lost nearly 2%, while Apple and Microsoft each fell over 1%.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Wednesday 8th January 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Wall Street Declines and Rising Treasury Yields first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.