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• Prior quarter 0.8%
• Employment cost index Q4 0.9% vs 0.9% estimate
• Employment cost YoY 3.8% for the quarter ending December 2024 vs 3.9% for year ending September 2024
• Benefits 0.8% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY rose 3.6% for 2024 vs 3.8% in 2023
• Wages 0.9% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY 3.8% vs 4.3% in 2023

Looking at some of the details:

Private Industry Workers:

• Compensation costs increased 3.6% (4.1% in Dec 2023).
• Wages and salaries increased 3.7% (4.3% in Dec 2023).
• Benefit costs increased 3.3% (3.6% in Dec 2023).
• Inflation-adjusted wages and salaries increased 0.8%.

Private Industry by Bargaining Status:

• Union workers: Compensation costs increased 5.1%, wages and salaries 5.5%, benefit costs 4.6%.
• Non-union workers: Compensation costs increased 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.5%, benefit costs 3.1%.

State and Local Government Workers:

• Compensation costs increased 4.7% (4.6% in Dec 2023).
• Wages and salaries increased 4.5% (4.7% in Dec 2023).
• Benefit costs increased 4.9% (4.6% in Dec 2023).

The YoY numbers are down from 2023 which is good with wages making a jump from 4.3% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• The advance November estimate was -0.1%
• October reading was +0.3%
• December advanced reading +0.2% m/m

The November number is the largest contraction since December 2023.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here is a graphic from the WSJ highlighting consensus expectations for today’s PCE report at a more-granular level.

Beyond that, here is what Powell said on Wednesday:

Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in December
and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8
percent.

Now I don’t think Powell got that data two days in advance but it means the consensus is very firm around those numbers.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.6%
• HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected
• Prior +2.8%

This was expected given the German state readings earlier in the session. The Core inflation rate has also eased from 3.3% in December to 2.9% in January. Services inflation though remains sticky around 4.0%.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Dollar keeps steadier on the session, eyes PCE price data later
• ECB’s Müller: It is realistic for inflation to be near 2% by the middle of this year
• Bavaria January CPI +2.5% vs +3.0% y/y prior
• Germany January unemployment change 11k vs 14k expected
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?
• European indices open slightly higher, look to end the month on a high
• Gold clips $2,800 for the first time as the run higher continues
• France January preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Germany December retail sales -1.6% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• UK January Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 31 January 10am New York cut
• BOJ governor Ueda: Will continues to hike rates if economy moves in line with forecast
• BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%
• Nomura now expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through 2025
• Goldman Sachs sees Brent oil price averaging $78 in 2025

It’s been a pretty calm session with no major market moves. On the data side, the French and German inflation readings were the highlights and they missed estimates weighing a bit on the euro as traders added to rate cuts bets.

Gold has been in the spotlight since yesterday as it made a new all-time high and continues to display a bullish price action. Crude oil, on the other hand, is negative on the day as it erased yesterday’s pop triggered by Trump’s comments on tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The support around the key $72.00 level is still holding.

In the FX market, the US Dollar is mildly strong as traders might be erring on the cautious side heading into the weekend with the risk of a gap on either side if Trump imposes or not tariffs tomorrow.

In the equity space we are having kind of the same sentiment with cautious optimism as the price continues to slowly edge higher. Treasury yields are almost flat.

In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Core PCE Index and the US Q4 Employment Cost Index. The PCE shouldn’t change much in terms of market pricing, while the ECI might have a bigger impact.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The changes among dollar pairs show a bit of a lack of appetite, with the dollar mostly steadier across the board. It is seen up against the euro and yen but marginally lower against the antipodeans.

USD/JPY nudged up a little close to 155.00 earlier but the pair is held back by its 100-hour moving average nearby alongside large option expiries today. There are also larger expiries in play for EUR/USD, holding the pair just under 1.0400 alongside softer German inflation data.

Looking to broader markets, equities are looking to end the month on a high note but that isn’t translating to much risk optimism in FX yet. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with tech shares leading the way. Nasdaq futures are seen up 0.8% currently.

As for the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are a touch higher to 4.53% and still holding this neckline support here on the charts.

Coming up later, the focus will be on the US PCE price index before markets might look to square up some positions come month-end and also before the weekend. I mean, you never know what’s going to happen with Trump and tariffs so there’s a key risk factor to keep in consideration before the break.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 3/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The latest inflation figures from German states released around the same time:

• Hesse CPI +2.5% vs +2.4% y/y prior
• Brandenburg CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prior
• Saxony CPI +2.4% vs +3.2% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +2.5% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.3% vs +2.6% y/y prior

At the balance, the readings here are much softer than anticipated and points to downside risks to the national reading later in the day. Of note, there were negative monthly readings for Bavaria (-0.3%), Saxony (-0.4%), North Rhine Westphalia (-0.1%), and Baden Wuerttemberg (-0.2%).

Taking everything into account, we could see German headline annual inflation come in at around the range of 2.1% to 2.3% later. The euro is lower on the day, down 0.2% to 1.0368 currently from around 1.0383 before this.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 10k
• Unemployment rate 6.2% vs 6.2% expected
• Prior 6.1%

The jobless rate ticked a little higher with the German labour office noting that “underemployment and unemployment increased significantly at the start of the year, as is usual for this month”.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.2%
• Germany DAX +0.1%
• France CAC 40 +0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX +0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.3%

It’s been a hot start to the new year for European equities as stocks look to continue to feed off the ECB’s policy path. The mood music is also helped by Trump perhaps not going on a tariffs rampage, at least not yet. US futures are also sitting higher on the day, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

January is typically the best month for gold in the past two decades and this year, the seasonal trend rings true again. The precious metal is up nearly 7% on the year as it continues its hot streak from 2024. There was a bit of a setback in November and December but gold buyers have taken things in stride to start the new year at least.

We’re now seeing price clip the $2,800 level for the first time and there’s still plenty to be bullish about for gold in the big picture.

I’m not alone in saying that my position on gold remains unwavering in that I still see plenty of positives for the precious metal. And that however things play out this year, gold will remain a buy on dips regardless.

Looking at the outlook for the year ahead, any potential trade escalation could trigger safety flows into gold. Sure, that might be balanced out by inflation fears and the Fed staying sidelined. But do remember, this is a market that is pricing just under two rate cuts for the year already.

Meanwhile, bond yields looked to have hit a top for the time being. And even with the run higher in yields previously, it hardly put a significant dent on gold prices. And that’s a positive takeaway – one that is really as good as it gets in my view.

That being said, there are challenges not just from a technical and overstretched standpoint. It is that much of the plus points for gold are already made known. There’s still a chance that gold could catch a fiscal tailwind from the US, but I reckon that is unlikely given how things are playing out now.

But from a macro perspective, it’ll be hard to challenge the narrative so long as major central banks are still on the easing path; albeit slowing down. And the fact that they are also still buying up the precious metal, in particular China.

The $3,000 mark will not be a farfetched target for this year I feel.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.3%
• HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expected
• Prior +1.8%

There’s a good balance in the readings despite headline annual inflation nudging a little higher in January. Energy prices were seen up 2.8% year-on-year and that’s the large chunk of it, compared to the 1.2% year-on-year increase in December. Meanwhile, services inflation is seen slowing to 1.9% from 2.2% previously. And that is arguably the more important detail here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.