Articles

• Prior was +4.2%
• Month-over-month +0.4% vs +0.3% expected

Separate house price data from the FHFA:

• Year-over-year +4.2% vs +4.5% expected
• Month-over-month +0.3% vs +0.4% expected

US home sales numbers in the final months of the year were stronger than you would expect given high mortgage rates. That said, 7% mortgages are a real headwind.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -1.2% (revised to -2.0%)
• Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% (revised to +0.9%)
• Ex transport +0.3% vs +0.4% expected
• Ex defense -2.4% vs -0.3% expected

The headline is soft but it looks like it was driven by weak defense orders. The line to watch is the core orders (nondefense capital goods orders ex-air) which rose above the consensus and caught an upward revision to the prior. Comments in most PMIs have been upbeat since the election and there’s likely some front-running of tariffs.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I don’t expect the market to stray from its focus on AI and tech companies this week but there is an FOMC decision coming and we get some economic data today.

At the bottom of the hour we get December durable goods orders, which are expected up 0.6%. The main line to watch is on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is expected up 0.3%.

Then at 9 am ET (1400 GMT), the CaseShiller and FHFA monthly house price indexes are due up. Housing has been surprisingly strong in Nov/Dec but high interest rates are likely to sting soon.

The top releases of the day come at 10 am ET with January consumer confidence from The Conference Board and the regional manufacturing survey from the Richmond Fed.

For more, see the economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Nvidia shares up roughly 5% in pre-market
• German economy is facing a deep economic crisis, says BDI industrial association
• US futures creep higher in European morning trade
• European stocks see a mixed mood to kick off the session
• France January consumer confidence 92 vs 90 expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading
• FX option expiries for 28 January 10am New York cut
• Dollar bounces back as Trump makes the headlines again

It’s been a pretty quiet session with no major data releases and limited newsflow. The US Dollar consolidated around the daily highs after the overnight jump triggered by Bessent’s and Trump’s tariffs comments.

The greenback has been on a steady retreat since the US inflation data marked the peak in the repricing of rate cuts expectations, but the hawkish tariffs comments keep giving the US Dollar short term boosts.

Elsewhere, Treasury yields continue to pull back from yesterday’s lows as equities found some footing and the mood in the markets improved. Gold is consolidating near yesterday’s lows and a key support zone with the focus now switching to the FOMC decision tomorrow.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Consumer Confidence report although the market participants might be waiting for the Fed before committing with more conviction.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/1/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Nvidia shares are up 4.8% in pre-market after suffering the biggest one-day market cap loss on record, more than doubling its own previous record. It led to a broader decline among chipmakers and with the weightage of the Mag 7, major indices were dragged lower despite some sectors holding up.

For today, it’ll be interesting to see how quickly panic and fear turns to greed again. If you look back to last year, it really doesn’t take much for the tide to turn around. We’re part of the TikTok generation now. Any bad news that runs through the social media echo chamber can easily be forgotten by the next day. It’s all about moving in five-second steps and chasing the next story.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

If the German economy sees a decline again in 2025, it will be the first time since the reunification in 1990 that the country has suffered a contraction for three years in a row. Ouch. And BDI warns that such a scenario is beckoning with the situation being “very serious”.

“Growth in industry in particular has suffered a structural break. The economic crisis is more than just a consequence of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The problems are home-made and the result of a structural weakness since 2018 that governments have failed to tackle. Public investment in modern infrastructure, in the transformation and the resilience of our economy, is urgently needed.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This will be a key spot to watch in the day ahead, as it will tie together the broader market mood. S&P 500 futures are now nudging a little higher to be up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.6%. It’s not much and it is still early in the day of course. But for now at least, there is an air of calm after the plunge yesterday.

The main focus will be on Nvidia surely, after having posted the biggest one-day decline in market cap on record. They have been the poster boy for the entire market all of last year. As such, market players will be keeping a close eye on how Nvidia will fare today. Dip buyers to win out? Or are we going to be hit by another wave of selling when Wall Street comes in?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.3%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.1%

US futures are also reflecting a mixed picture but perhaps more importantly, tech shares are keeping much steadier. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% while Dow futures are down 0.2%. That is seeing S&P 500 futures keep flattish at the moment. It’s still early in the day though and all eyes will be on Nvidia to see how their shares cope after yesterday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 89

French household confidence rebounded to start the year, helped by easing of fears on unemployment. It is still keeping well below the long-term average of 100 though, so that continues to reflect softer sentiment as a whole for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.65%, Shanghai Composite down 0.06%, Hang Seng up 0.34% ASX down 0.12%
• Commodities : Gold at $2774.35 (0.26%), Silver at $30.65 (0.38%), Brent Oil at $76.59 (0.49%), WTI Oil at $73.54 (0.43%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.553, UK 10-year yield at 4.585, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5030

News & Data:

• (USD) New Home Sales  698K vs 669K expected

Markets Update:

Hong Kong stocks rose Tuesday, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 0.14%, following a sharp tech sell-off on Wall Street. Several Asia-Pacific markets, including China, Taiwan, and South Korea, remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.34%, while the Topix traded flat. Japanese chip stocks continued to decline amid concerns over Chinese AI startup DeepSeek challenging U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence. Advantest dropped 11%, Tokyo Electron lost 4.88%, and Renesas Electronics fell 3.07%. Meanwhile, India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex opened higher, gaining 0.36% and 0.54%, respectively, as the Reserve Bank of India announced over $17 billion in liquidity measures, including bond purchases and currency swaps.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.12% to 8,399.1, as losses in gold miners, energy, and tech stocks offset gains in iron ore miners and financials. In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.07% to 19,341.83, and the S&P 500 fell 1.46% to 6,012.28, amid fears of an AI stock bubble bursting due to DeepSeek’s competitive AI model. However, the Dow Jones gained 289.33 points (0.65%) to 44,713.58, supported by Apple, Johnson & Johnson, and Travelers.

Nvidia suffered a historic loss, shedding nearly $600 billion in market cap on Monday—the largest single-day decline for any U.S. company.

Upcoming Events: 

• 03:00 PM GMT – USD CB Consumer Confidence
• 03:00 PM GMT – USD Richmond Manufacturing Index

The post Tuesday 28th January 2025: Global Markets React to Tech Sell-Off and AI Disruptions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 January 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

After moderating significantly lower for most of last year, core inflation as reported by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) accelerated for the second consecutive month, rising from 1.5% in October to 1.9% YoY in December. This latest result also marked the second successive month where inflation exceeded its forecast, signalling a return of inflationary pressures in the land of the rising sun. The yen could see further appreciation in the coming months should inflation expectations continue to rise higher.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as news of surging interest in Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model raised concerns over this sector’s perceived lower energy consumption by power data centres. WTI oil fell over 1.5%, tumbling as low as $72.38 before stabilizing around $73 per barrel. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles bucked a five-week streak of falling inventories as 1M barrels of crude were added to storage last week. Should inventories continue to build for the second consecutive week, it could add further woes to oil prices late Tuesday.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (1:30 pm GMT)

Consumer Confidence (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

New orders for durable goods have been weak from August through November but the forecast for December suggests an uptick in manufactured goods. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey pulled back in December as concerns about the future outlook returned, particularly for future business conditions and incomes. However, January’s estimate of 105.7 points to a slight improvement in consumer sentiment and if combined with higher-than-anticipated orders, demand for the dollar could rekindle later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted by a majority to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.25 to 4.50% on 18 December. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range at 4.5 to 4.75%.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• The next meeting runs from 28 to 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (1:30 pm GMT)

Consumer Confidence (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

New orders for durable goods have been weak from August through November but the forecast for December suggests an uptick in manufactured goods. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey pulled back in December as concerns about the future outlook returned, particularly for future business conditions and incomes. However, January’s estimate of 105.7 points to a slight improvement in consumer sentiment and if combined with higher-than-anticipated orders, demand for the dollar could rekindle later today – a result that could weigh on gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

With demand for the greenback picking up in early Tuesday trading, the Aussie fell under 0.6300. This currency pair tumbled towards 0.6450 as Asian markets came online and should overhead pressures increase further, the downfall could extend on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi reversed off Monday’s high at 0.5723 to fall under 0.5700. With demand for the greenback rekindling on Tuesday, this currency pair slid lower towards 0.5650 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Core CPI (5:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

After moderating significantly lower for most of last year, core inflation as reported by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) accelerated for the second consecutive month, rising from 1.5% in October to 1.9% YoY in December. This latest result also marked the second successive month where inflation exceeded its forecast, signalling a return of inflationary pressures in the land of the rising sun. The yen could see further appreciation in the coming months should inflation expectations continue to rise higher.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro reached a high of 1.0533 on Monday before fizzling out around this level. This currency pair was sliding lower towards 1.0450 as Asian markets came online as demand for the greenback picked up on early Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 12 December to mark the third successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.15%, 3.40% and 3.00% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 30 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Waning demand for the greenback drove USD/CHF to an overnight low of 0.8965 on Monday. However, this currency pair found its footing around 0.8989 at the beginning of the Asia session to climb above the threshold of 0.9000. Should demand rekindle for the dollar, USD/CHF could edge higher on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable hit a high of 1.2523 before retreating away from this level on Monday. This currency pair was pulling back towards 1.2450 at the beginning of the Asia session but it should remain elevated on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6 to 3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75% on 19 December 2024 – three members preferred to reduce the Bank rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.50%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation had increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September, slightly higher than previous expectations while services consumer price inflation had remained elevated, at 5.0%, while core goods price inflation had risen to 1.1%.
• Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher than previous expectations, owing in large part to stronger inflation in core goods and food, and is expected to continue to rise slightly in the near term.
• Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined with Bank staff expecting GDP growth to be weaker at the end of the year than originally projected in the November Monetary Policy Report.
• Bank staff now expected zero GDP growth in 2024 Q4, weaker than the 0.3% that had been incorporated in the November Report, broadly consistent with the latest combined steer from business surveys and the available official data.
• The Committee now judges that the labour market is broadly in balance as annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth picked up quite sharply in the three months to October but there remains significant uncertainty around developments in the labour market.
• Monetary policy has been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Over recent quarters there has been progress in disinflation, particularly as previous external shocks have abated, although remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will assess the extent to which the evolving evidence is consistent with more constrained supply, which could sustain inflationary pressures, or with weaker demand, which could lead to the emergence of spare capacity in the economy and push down inflation; a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 6 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Weakness in the Loonie has kept USD/CAD above 1.4300 since the beginning of the year. This currency pair was floating around 1.4380 as Asian markets came online and could grind higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 11 December; this marked the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports.
• The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force while wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected.
• Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June and going forward, they will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (9:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as news of surging interest in Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model raised concerns over this sector’s perceived lower energy consumption by power data centres. WTI oil fell over 1.5%, tumbling as low as $72.38 before stabilizing around $73 per barrel. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles bucked a five-week streak of falling inventories as 1M barrels of crude were added to storage last week. Should inventories continue to build for the second consecutive week, it could add further woes to oil prices late Tuesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 January 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.