Articles

The Chinese tech company Alibaba released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claims surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3 model.

Alibaba said in an announcement posted on its official WeChat account that Qwen 2.5-Max outperforms almost across the board GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3 and Llama-3.1-405B.

DeepSeek’s rise spurred competition both in foreign and domestic companies.

Click here to read the full article

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Financial Times reports that OpenAI has found evidence that the Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek used the company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source model.

OpenAI said that it has seen some evidence of “distillation” which is a technique used by developers to obtain better performance on smaller models by using outputs from the larger ones. This allows to achieve similar results on specific tasks at a much lower cost. OpenAI declined to comment further on details of its evidence. Its terms of service state users cannot copy any of its services or use output to develop models that compete with OpenAI.

For more click here to read the article

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• High yield 4.457%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.466%
• Tail:-0.9 basis points versus 6–month average of -1.0 basis points
• Bid to Cover: 2.64X vs. six-month average of 2.66X
• DIrects (Domestic demand): 23.06% vs 6-month average of 16.3%
• Indirects (international demand): 67.08% vs 6-month avearage of 74.0%
• Dealers (they take the rest): 9.86x% vs 6-month average of 9.7%

Auction Grade: C

The tail of -0.9 basis points was the good new but only average compared to the 6 month average. The Bid to cover was also average. Domestic demand was strong but the international demand was weaker than average. The dealers took about the average.

I was going to give a C+/B- but on 2nd view, it is near the 6 month averages. So I give it a C vs the history (average).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 36.2
• Overall livelihood: 32.2 vs. 34.1 prior
• Income growth: 39.9 vs. 40.2 prior
• Employment: 41.0 vs. 41.2 prior
• Willingness to buy durable goods: 27.5 vs. 29.4 prior

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Bets on a February RBA rate cut are solidfying after the inflation data earlier
• FX option expiries for Wednesday, January 29, 2025, 10am New York cut
• Goldman Sachs expects 6 Bank of England interest rate cuts by mid-2026
• Euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank is cautious this week
• Westpac changes its forecast to a February Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut
• OrderFlow Intel: 🤖💡AI-Powered Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers says worst of inflation is past
• Australian inflation data: RBA rate cut expectations rise higher
• AUD/USD has dropped after the better than expected Q4 inflation data from Australia
• Nasdaq Futures Analysis
• Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%)
• Australian inflation data due soon – RBA rate cut speculation for February meeting
• Reminder – China, Hong Kong and Singapore are all on holiday today
• BoJ December 2024 meeting minutes express caution – January brought change though
• Google reclassifies U.S. as ‘sensitive country’ alongside China, Russia
• Federal Reserve preview: Deutsche Bank says Fed to signal a March rate cut is unlikely
• One for the Tesla (TSLA) traders: Honda look at launching sub-$30,000 EV in North America
• Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast for the end of Q1 2025 to $2,700 (prior 2600)
• U.S. Navy bans use of DeepSeek AI – citing ‘security and ethical concerns’
• RBNZ’s Conway says policy committee confident inflation will abate
• Trump will pay federal workers through to September 30 if they resign by February 6
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build less than expected
• The noob heading to the BOJ monetary policy board is a big supporter of higher rates
• Solid rebound for the broader indices today
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Tech bounces back ahead of the FOMC
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 29 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

It
was a more subdued day in Asia today with no tariff talk like we had
on Monday and Tuesday this week to spur outsized volatility.

The
Bank of Japan published the minutes of its December 2024 meeting.
Members expressed various shades of confidence in the outlook for
inflation, wages, the economy, and monetary policy. But, for us here
today on January 29 the meaning of it all was moot (having little or
no practical relevance). After all, the Bank of Japan raised its
short-term rates just last week, at its January 24 meeting.

From
Australia, we had Q4 inflation data, which came in lower than in Q3,
below market central estimates, and below Reserve Bank of Australia
projections.

• headline
  inflation fell to 2.4%, just under the midpoint of the RBA’s 2 –
  3% target band
• the
  trimmed mean, a measure of core, or underlying, inflation came in at
  3.2% y/y, which while still above the top of the band was a 3-year
  low (0.5% y/y)
• a caveat to all this is that some of the inflation moderation was driven by government rebates on electricity and other subsidies, which may reverse once they expire

This
was all encouraging and indeed has prompted a repricing of a Reserve
Bank of Australia February RBA cut to around 90% now.

AUD/USD
was marked lower on the data release and has seen a small retracement
since.

Major
FX, otherwise, traded in a subdued fashion.

China,
Singapore and Hong Kong were all on holiday today for Lunar New Year.
Happy New Year to those celebrating!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Dear Traders,

At IC Markets Global, we continuously review our offerings to ensure they align with our strategic objectives while meeting the evolving needs of our clients. As part of this commitment, we are making an important update to the rebate structure for the Raw Trader Plus program.

What’s Changing?

Effective 1st February 2025, Indices and Commodities will no longer be included in our rebate program. This adjustment follows a comprehensive review aimed at maintaining a fair and transparent trading environment.

For further details, please refer to our updated Terms & Conditions.

If you have any questions or need further clarification regarding this update, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Our team is here to assist you with any concerns or inquiries you may have.

Thank you for your continued support.

Kind regards, 

IC Markets Global. 

The post Important Update: Changes to Our Rebate Program first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Tech Stocks Rebound – Nasdaq Up 2%

US tech stocks rebounded in trading yesterday as investors prepared for key earnings reports and the latest rate decision from the Federal Reserve Bank. Market heavyweight Nvidia surged 8% after a sharp 17% decline the previous day, helping to lift the Nasdaq by 2%. The S&P 500 gained 0.92%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%.

US Treasury yields were steady ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with the 2-year yield down 0.4 basis points to 4.195% and the 10-year yield slipping 0.2 basis points to 4.532%. The US dollar appreciated against all major currencies, as concerns over tariffs resurfaced, pushing the DXY index up 0.52% on the day.

Oil prices also gained ground, with Brent crude rising 0.65% to $77.58 and WTI climbing 1.05% to $73.94. Meanwhile, gold edged closer to all-time highs as uncertainty continued to weigh on investor sentiment, rising 0.76% to $2,762.19.

Fed in Focus Today

Today is a significant day for North American markets, with rate announcements expected from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. However, markets are likely to focus more on the Federal Reserve’s update later in the day than on the Bank of Canada’s decision, which will be announced closer to the New York session open.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold rates steady today. However, the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference have the potential to move markets significantly. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to carefully balance two key messages: acknowledging positive progress in economic data, particularly inflation, while addressing the potential economic implications of the new government’s policies. How Powell navigates these competing factors could lead to sharp reactions across financial markets.

Data and Central Banks Ahead

It looks set to be a busy day for traders, with key data releases and a “double play” of central bank rate decisions during the North American session.

The day kicks off with important data from Australia, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next moves. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a 0.3% quarterly increase, with the annual headline figure projected at 2.5%. Meanwhile, the closely watched Trimmed Mean CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

The European session is relatively quiet on the data front, but activity is expected to pick up significantly once the New York session begins. The Bank of Canada is forecast to cut rates by 25 basis points earlier in the session. Later in the day, attention will turn to the Federal Reserve’s major rate announcement. While no change in the federal funds rate is expected, the accompanying statement and press conference are likely to provide traders with substantial opportunities.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/01/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Australian Treasurer Chalmers:

• the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely
• the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us

Chalmers wants the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates before the election due on May. He’s panting for it.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Australia for the October- December quarter and for December month, 2024.

Headline inflation numbers come in lower than expected.

+2.4% y/y

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.8%

+0.2% q/q

• expected 0.3%, prior 0.2%

Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation)

3.2% y/y

• expected 3.3%, prior 3.5%

0.5% q/q

• expected 0.6%, prior 0.8%

The weighted median, also a core measure:

3.5% y/y

• expected 3.5%, prior 3.8%

The trimmed mean is a focus, and at 0.5% this under where the Reserve Bank of Australia was expecting it.

The Australian dollar has been marked lower as, at the margin, these numbers boost the chance of an RBA February rate cut.

***

Background info to this is here:

• Australian inflation data due soon – RBA rate cut speculation for February meeting
• Critical Australian inflation data – likely to tick the RBA rate cut box?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29.

• The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4.
• During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for 16 days, culminating with the Lantern Festival on February 12.
• Mainland Chinese markets will be closed for all the holidays.

Hong Kong is closed on:

• Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday
• The second day of Lunar New Year – 30 January, Thursday
• The third day of Lunar New Year – 31 January, Friday

Singapore is closed on:

• Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday
• and also 30 January, Thursday

Happy New Year to those celebrating!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar traders are anticipating significant movement in the currency today as the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expects the quarterly data to show a 0.3% increase, with the headline year-on-year figure projected at a still “sticky” 2.5%. Meanwhile, the closely watched Trimmed Mean quarterly figure is forecast to rise by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

The Aussie has experienced volatile trading sessions against the USD recently. It peaked near 0.6330 late last week but has since retreated to the middle of its recent range. A weaker CPI print today could significantly raise the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in the coming months, likely triggering increased Aussie selling. Long-term support currently sits near the annual low of 0.6129. Conversely, a stronger CPI result would increase pressure on the central bank to maintain higher interest rates, likely pushing the currency higher against the USD and other crosses.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance 2: 0.6331 – 2025 High
• Resistance 1: 0.6310 – Trendline Resistance
• Support 1: 0.6238 – Overnight Low
• Support 2: 0.6129 – 2025 Low and Trendline Support

The post Trade the Aussie on the Australian CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Google reclassifies U.S. as ‘sensitive country’ alongside China, Russia after Trump’s ‘Gulf of America’ comments

CNBC with the report:

• Google’s maps division on Monday reclassified the U.S. as a “sensitive country,” a designation it reserves for states with strict governments and border disputes, CNBC has learned.
• The decision to elevate the U.S. to its list of sensitive countries illustrates the challenges Tech companies face in navigating the Trump presidency.
• Google’s list of “sensitive” countries includes China, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

CNBC adds:

• The new classification for the U.S. came after President Donald Trump said his administration would make name changes on official maps and federal communications. Those changes include renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” and renaming Mount Denali as Mount McKinley.

This may not sit well with the Prez?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.