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• Prior was -0.2%
• Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.5% prior

This is a big input for Q4 GDP. The first look at that report is coming up on Thursday and I’d expect the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker to be revised down later today on this. It’s currently at 3.2%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A tweet (x) by WSJ Timiraos pegs the core PCE at up 0.18%. That would put the 3-6 month rate at 2.3%. The 12 month stays at 2.8%.

The FOMC announces its rate decision at 2 PM with no change expected.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 January -2.0% vs +0.1% prior
• UK’s Reeves: We begun to turn things around
• Italy January consumer confidence 98.2 vs 96.0 expected
• Eurozone December M3 money supply +3.5% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• European stocks mostly positive to kick off the session
• Spain Q4 preliminary GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% q/q expected
• Germany February GfK consumer confidence -22.4 vs -20.0 expected
• Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3
• OpenAI says it has evidence China’s DeepSeek used its model to train competitor – FT
• What are the main events for today?
• Japan January consumer confidence 35.2 vs 36.6 expected

It’s been a calm session in terms of economic data and newsflow. There was no major market mover. Things in the market continued where they left yesterday with the US Dollar gaining more ground and stocks extending the gains.

Treasury yields have not moved much although they are slightly negative. Gold is down 0.2% on the day, while crude oil has seen a 0.7% drop.

In the American session, we have the BoC and the FOMC policy decisions. The Canadian central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps, while the Fed is seen holding rates steady.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.1%
• Market index 220.0 vs 224.6 prior
• Purchase index 162.4 vs 163.0 prior
• Refinance index 520.9 vs 558.8 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.02% prior

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• We begun to turn things around.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/1/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior was 96.3
• Business Confidence 86.8 vs 85.5 prior

ISTAT comment: “In January 2025, the business confidence index rose for the
second consecutive month, returning for the first time to the level
estimated at April 2024. The increase in the indicator is driven by the
manufacturing sector and, above all, by the construction sector.

The climate of consumer confidence returns to increase after
three consecutive months of decline: the positive dynamics of the index
is the synthesis of overall evaluations improving especially on the
general economic situation and on the future one; opinions on the
personal and current frameworks are based on a more cautious optimism.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +3.8%
• Loans to Households Y/Y 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.9% prior.
• Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.5% vs. 1.0% prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.4%
• Germany DAX +0.4%
• France CAC 40 -0.3%
• UK FTSE -0.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.5%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.3%

After the Monday’s rout, the mood continued to improve with stocks erasing most of the losses. European stocks have been outperforming its US peers not only because of less overvaluation but also because lower AI costs should improve efficiency.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.8%
• GDP Q4 Y/Y +3.5% vs 3.2% prior.

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured in
terms of volume, increased by 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter from
the previous quarter. This rate was similar to that of the third quarter
of 2024.

Domestic demand contributed 1.2 points to quarterly GDP growth. For its part, external demand contributed -0.4 points.

By additions of demand, household final consumption expenditure grew by 1.0% and that of public administrations by 0.4%. Gross capital formation, for its part, varied by 2.8 per cent.

Exports of goods and services showed a quarter-quarter rate of 0.1 per cent, three tenths less than in the third quarter. Imports, for their part, registered a variation of 1.3 per cent, with an increase of four tenths over the previous quarter.

On the supply side, all large sectors had positive rates in their added value, except for the primary branches. Thus, the industrial branches grew by 0.3% inter-quarter. Among them, the manufacturing industry accelerated its rate by six tenths from the previous quarter, to a growth of 0.5%.

Construction’s gross value added rose 2.6 per cent to 4.2 points higher than in the previous quarter. And the Services slowed by one tenth, to 0.9%.

For their part, the primary branches recorded a quarterly variation of -0.7%, compared to 1.5% in the previous quarter.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -23.3 (revised to -21.4)

Consumer sentiment in Germany begins the new
year with a bumpy start. Both economic and income expectations as well
as the willingness to buy suffered losses in January. The willingness to
save, on the other hand, recorded slight increases.

This is a low tier indicator and not a market moving release.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.54%, Shanghai Composite down 0.06%, Hang Seng up 0.14% ASX up 0.57%
• Commodities : Gold at $2795.35 (0.03%), Silver at $30.85 (-0.18%), Brent Oil at $76.29 (-0.29%), WTI Oil at $73.64 (-0.23%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.523, UK 10-year yield at 4.611, Germany 10-year yield at 2.560

News & Data:

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence  104.1 vs 105.7 expected
• (USD) Richmond Manufacturing Index  -4 vs -13 expected

Markets Update:

Japan and Australian stocks rose Wednesday as Wall Street rebounded overnight, while several Asia-Pacific markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.84%, and the Topix rose 0.74%, recovering from the previous session’s losses. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December meeting revealed discussions on neutral interest rates and monetary policy, as inflation remains above the 2% target and wage hikes continue due to labor shortages. Last week, the BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.72%, reversing earlier losses. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that inflation rose 0.2% in the December quarter and 2.4% annually, slightly below economists’ expectations of 2.5%. Lower-than-expected inflation could ease concerns over aggressive monetary tightening in the country.

On Wall Street, major indexes rebounded after a sharp sell-off triggered by concerns over competition from Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. The S&P 500 gained 0.92% to 6,067.70, driven by a strong performance in the technology sector. The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.03% to 19,733.59, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 136.77 points (0.31%) to close at 44,850.35.

Nvidia rebounded nearly 9% after a historic 17% drop in the previous session, which erased nearly $600 billion in market value. Other major tech companies also posted gains, with Broadcom rising 2.6% and Oracle climbing 3.6%, as investors sought opportunities following Monday’s steep losses.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate
• 07:00 PM GMT – USD Federal Funds Rate

The post Wednesday 29th January 2025: Asian Stocks Rise as Wall Street Rebounds first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.