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New Zealand Trade Balance for December month 2024 +219mn NZD, a handy sruplus

• prior -435mn

Annual Trade deficit narrows to -7.67bn

• prior -8.26bn

December Exports 6.84bn NZD

• prior 6.42bn

Imports 6.62bn NZD … falling imports is not necessarily a sign of a strong economy

• prior 6.85bn

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on a rate cutting path

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, fell on Wednesday, January 29.

• The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4.
• During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for 16 days, culminating with the Lantern Festival on February 12.
• Mainland Chinese markets will be closed for all the holidays.

• Hong Kong was closed on Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday. Markets in HK remain closed on:

• The second day of Lunar New Year – 30 January, Thursday
• The third day of Lunar New Year – 31 January, Friday

Singapore was also is closed on Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday. Markets in Singapore remain closed today

• 30 January, Thursday

If you are taking a break, have fun!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2025

• EPS: $3.23 (BEAT; exp. $3.11)
• Revenue: $69.6B (BEAT; exp. $68.78B)
• Azure and Other Cloud Services Revenue Growth: +31% (MISS; exp. +31.8% – Down from 33% last quarter)
• Segment Highlights:
  • Intelligent Cloud: $25.5B (MISS; exp. $25.74B)
  • More Personal Computing: $14.7B (BEAT; exp. $14.13B)
  • Productivity and Business Processes: $28.9B (BEAT ; exp. $28.85B)
  • Cloud Revenue: $40.9B

Shares of MSFT are trading down -3.94% at $424.90

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025

• Adjusted EPS: $0.73 (MISS; exp. $0.75)
• Revenue: $25.71B (MISS ; exp. $27.21B)
• Free Cash Flow: $2.03B (beat; exp. $1.75B)
• Notes:
  • Less cost reduction than previously expected.

Shares of Tesla are down -3.17% OR -$12.31 at $375.83

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

I don’t expect any new information on current monetary policy from the RBA today.

The Bank publish their ‘Bulletin’.

• The Bulletin is published quarterly in March, June, September and December.
• It contains articles various articles on the economy, policy, and wider topics.

None of the other items are likely to move around major FX too much upon release.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US yields are moving back toward unchanged after moving up about three – four basis points out the curve. The two-year yield is still up around 2.3 basis points at 4.227%, but off its high of 4.263%..

• 2-year yield 4.227%, +2.3 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.353%, +0.9 basis points. The high yield was 4.398%
• 10 year yield 4.552%, +0.4 basis points. The high yield was 4.59%
• 30 year yield 4.792%, +0.3 basis points. The high yield was at 4.818%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

We did some ‘language cleanup’ in the opening statement, removal of reference on ‘progress towards inflation goal’ was not meant to send a signal – Fed Powell

The comment is sending the USD back down.

Stock indices are chipping away at the declines.

• Dow -0.21%
• S&P -0.44%
• Nasdaq -0.58%

US yields are still higher but off the highs for the day.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The FOMC is a bit more hawkish with the inflation shift. More specifically, the Fed said:

• December: “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.”
• January: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

• Key Change:
  • December: Acknowledged progress toward the inflation target.
  • January: Removed reference to progress, focusing instead on inflation remaining elevated, signaling ongoing concerns.

Looking at the key FX rates:

• EURUSD is back below the 50% retracement area near 1.0404 and the 200 hour MA at 1.04138. The price low rearched 1.0392. The next target is the low for the day at 1.0381. The low from last Thursday at 1.0371. 1.0354 is the 50% of the move up from the January low. What you dont want to see is 200 hour MA at 1.04138
• USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved higher but found sellers at the 100 hour MA at 155.434. The price is at 155.32. The price needs to get and stay above that level and then the 200 hour MA at 155.70, to increase the bullish bias. Support remains at the 38.2% of the move up from Dec at 154.939 and down to low of swing area at 154.77. MOve below would be more bearish.
• GBPUSD: The GBPUSD remains below the falling 200 hour MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2445 and the 50% of the move down from Dec. at 1.2453. Stay below is more bearish. On the downside the low for the day at 1.2391 is target followed by swing area and 200 hour MA between 1.2351 and 1.2375.

The US major indices are lower:

• Dow industrial average was down -0.17% or -74 points just before the release. The index is down -229 4 or 0.51% currently.
• S&P index is down -31.81 points or -0.52% before the release. The index is down -49.99 points or -0.82% currently
• NASDAQ index is down -165.82 points or -0.84% before the release. The index is now down -217.90 points or -1.10%.

In the US debt market:

• 2 year yield was at 4.2258%. It is currently at 4.252%.
• Five year yield was at 4.355%. It is currently at 4.390%.
• 10 year yield was at 4.556%. It is currently at 4.587%.
• 30 year yield was at 4.794%. It is currently at 4.814%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The market has reacted in a hawkish way across the board after the FOMC decision.

The statement removed a line saying ‘inflation has made progress’ and that’s given it more of a neutral message than the 46 bps priced into the market.

The reaction has been a roughly 25 pip rally in the US dollar, 15 points lower in the S&P 500 and 2 bps higher in yields.

That could easily be erased (or run further) on comments from Powell starting at the bottom of the hour. Watch live here:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The biggest company in the world (or at least it was on Friday) is bouncing around like a small-cap stock. It rebounded huge yesterday but is under pressure again today. Perhaps the tell yesterday was that it rallied far more than other beaten-up semiconductor stocks.

Also weighing on Tesla is a report that the Trump admin is considering further tightening US export restrictions on Nvidia chips.

The Nasdaq is down 1.2% but chart is looking better. There big risks later today with earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. The trio are all lower today led by a 3% decline in TSLA.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US must be able to sell American autos in Europe

There is big difference between this and what Trump has been saying about Mexico/Canada, at least lately.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More from Lutnick:

• CHina’s DeepSeek, was able to create a dirt cheap, by leveraging what company had taken from the United States.
• He will pursue restrictions to keep United States and lead over China on AI.
• Export controls without tariffs are a whack a mole model on China.
• China DeepSeek misused American technology. They stole things. They broke in. They’ve taken our intellectual property.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.