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The major European indices are closing lower. The German DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB is on a four-day losing streak.

• German DAX, -0.31%
• France’s CAC, -0.43%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.17%
• Spain’s Ibex unchanged
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.29%

Looking at European benchmark 10 year yields:

• Germany 2.345%, unchanged
• France 3.097%, +1.1 basis points
• UK 4.473%, +2.6 basis points
• Spain 3.055%, +0.3 basis points
• Italy 3.575%, +2.2 basis points

As London/European traders head for the exits, US stocks are weak and lower as well:

• Dow industrial average -112 points or -0.26% at 43156
• S&P index -38 points or -0.65% at 5879
• NASDAQ index -149 points or -0.79% at 18837
• Russell 2000 is down -10.26 points or -0.44% and 2314.60.

In other markets:

• Crude oil is trading near unchanged at $69.24
• Gold is trading up $17.20 or 0.65% at $2649.06.
• Silver is trading down $0.12 or -0.38% at $31.05.
• Bitcoin is trading up $1300 at $93,753. The digital currency hit a new record high $94,942.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The weekly EIA inventory data shows:

• Crude oil inventories build of 0.545Mvs build 0.138M estimate. Prior week +2.089 million
• Gasoline inventories build of 2.054M vs build 0.859M estimate. Prior week -4.407M
• Distillate inventories drawdown of -0.114M vs drawdown -0.020M estimate. Prior week -1.394M
• Cushing inventories drawdown of -0.140M vs. drawdown -0.688M last week.

The private inventory data released late yesterday showed:

Crude oil is trading at $69.21. That’s down marginally on the day.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As a heads up the private (API) survey released Tuesday afternoon showed a much bigger build than was exp[ected:

• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs expectations

Coming up at 1030 US Eastern time (1530 GMT) is the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA publishes the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) every Wednesday, providing a comprehensive overview of the nation’s petroleum supply and demand.

• This report includes data on crude oil and refined products such as gasoline and distillates, detailing production, imports, exports, and inventory levels.
• It serves as a crucial indicator for market participants, offering insights into supply dynamics and potential price movements.
• For instance, the report released on November 14, 2024, highlighted a 2.1 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline stocks decreased by 4.4 million barrels, reaching their lowest level since November 2022.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broader US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day:

• S&P index -9.50 points or -0.16% at 5907
• NASDAQ index -45 points or -0.26% at 18937.50
• Dow industrial average up two points or 0.01% at 48274
• Russell 2000 -5.87 points or -0.25% at 2318.91

Shares of Nvidia trading down $1.50 or -1.03% at $145.54 ahead of earnings after the close.

What are the expectations

Earnings Expectations

• Adjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase)

• Revenue: $33.2 billion versus $18.12 billion last year (84% YoY increase)

• Fiscal Q4 sales guidance: $37.7 billion (KeyBanc estimate, down from $40 billion)

• Fiscal Q4 earnings outlook: $0.83 per share (KeyBanc estimate, down from $0.88 per share)

Analyst Sentiment

• 90% of Wall Street analysts recommend buying the stock

• KeyBanc maintains Overweight rating and $180 price target

Last quarter earnings came in at $0.68 versus $0.647 estimate. Revenues were at $30.04 billion versus $28.74 billion. Shares fell -6.38% from $125.61 to a closing level to $117.59 the next day. The price fell -18.14% to its low close on September 6 at $102.83 before starting its rebound to the upside which reached a new record level of $149.77 intraday on November 8.

Shares in 2024 are up 195.5%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are little changed in premarket trading. Earlier higher gains have been eroded ahead of the opening bell in around 14 minutes.

• Dow industrial average up 53 points
• S&P index up 0.77 points
• NASDAQ index +6.5 points

Comcast is to spin off its cable networks. Shares of the company are up $0.28 or 0.66%

Target financed earnings that disappointed. EPS came in at $1.85 versus $2.29. Revenues were $25.67 billion which was less than $25.87 billion expected. Shares are down $-27.38 or -17.55% at $128.97.

Nvidia will announce earnings after the close. Shares are trading up $0.19 or 0.12% at $147.20 in premarket trading.

In the US debt market, yields are higher:

• 2-year yield 4.308%, +3.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.292%, +4.5 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.429%, +5.1 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US Chips Act was a bipartisan supported legislation designed to incentivize the building of chip manufacturing in the US. TSMC and Intel have been some of the key beneficiaries and as such each are building new facilities for manufacturing. The awarding of $1.5 billion to global foundry’s seems to be part of that chips act funding

At risk is the change in administrations and the Trump preference to support tariffs over grants. As a result,

• U.S. officials are rushing to finalize $39B in Chips Act manufacturing grants, primarily for Intel, before President Biden’s term ends.
• $30B remains tied up in complex negotiations, with Intel’s share reaching up to $11.5B for projects in AZ, NM, OH, and OR.
• Commerce highlights 125K jobs and significant domestic investment as key program benefits.

Other details on the chips act

• The White House vowed to implement the Chips Act “with speed and efficiency” citing its national-security and economic importance.
• Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has championed U.S. chip manufacturing to address geopolitical competition with China.
• Rising chip plant costs, exceeding $20B for cutting-edge factories, and overseas incentives have reduced U.S. production to 10% of global output.
• Taiwan Semiconductor received the first major grant of up to $6.6B for Arizona projects, while lengthy negotiations have frustrated companies and business groups.
• Intel, despite delays, remains committed to working with both the Biden and Trump administrations to restore U.S. chip-making leadership.

Pres. Trump announced Howard Lutnick as the new head of the Commerce Department. The Chips Act will be a key barometer for gauging the preferences of the new administration. It was not long ago that supply chain shocks including chip shortages for automobiles, sent prices sharply to the upside. Having domestic production would have eased that pain. Also the threat to Taiwan from China is a key geopolitical risk that would impact chip supply for vital industries in the US (and elsewhere too).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar holds firmer in European morning trade
• USDJPY Technical Analysis – The JPY remains the weakest among the majors
• S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside
• ECB’s de Guindos: Current low growth environment has more to do with structural policy
• ECB sounds warning on “bubble” in AI stocks in latest financial stability review
• UK October CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y expected
• Eurozone negotiated wage growth seen accelerating in Q3
• Germany October PPI +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 November +1.7% vs +0.5% prior
• Economists see Trump tariffs to cut China GDP by around 0.5% to 0.9% next year
• Xi calls on Scholz to reconcile issue of EU tariffs on Chinese EVs

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 5.1 bps to 4.429%
• Gold down 0.1% to $2,628.43
• WTI crude up 0.5% to $69.76
• Bitcoin up 1.4% to $93,583

The dollar is starting to perk up again in trading today, following a bit of a breather in the past two days.

There wasn’t much to trigger the dollar gains as traders just fell back to the post-election mood in the European morning session. USD/JPY was an early mover, gaining to around 155.20 in the handover from Asia before extending gains to around 155.80 currently.

That comes as bond yields are also tracking higher on the day. And it wasn’t long before the dollar caught stronger bids across the board.

EUR/USD moved down from 1.0580 to 1.0550 while GBP/USD is pulled lower from 1.2700 after a hotter UK CPI report to 1.2665 currently.

Elsewhere, USD/CAD is back up by 0.3% to near 1.4000 while AUD/USD is down 0.5% to test the 0.6500 mark once more.

Looking to broader markets, equities are cautiously higher with watchful eyes on Nvidia’s earnings after the close. Meanwhile, gold is marginally lower as the dollar and higher yields are keeping the rebound this week in check for a bit.

Besides that, Bitcoin is also seeing renewed bids amid the return to the post-election mood, at least for now. The cryptocurrency is seen up over 1% above $93,500.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.5%
• Market index 195.6 vs 192.4 prior
• Purchase index 136.0 vs 133.3 prior
• Refinance index 514.9 vs 506.0 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 6.86% prior

Despite a continued rise in the average home loan rate, mortgage applications steadied in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity showing a bounce. It’s only a bit of a light comfort though, after having seen a sharp plunge in the first week of November.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 21/11/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next year. But we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After a bit of a pause in the last few days, the dollar is starting to flex its muscles once again. The greenback is sitting atop the major currencies bloc, now extending gains across the board on the day. USD/JPY already traded a little higher earlier but now other dollar pairs are catching up. EUR/USD is currently seen down by 0.4% to 1.0556:

The pair did break below its 100-hour moving average (red line) yesterday but it owed to risk-off flows, arguably driven by geopolitical headlines. That reversed course later in the day but now, we’re seeing steady flows to nudge the pair back below the key near-term level again.

Hold below that and sellers will reestablish a more bearish near-term bias in the pair. So, that’s a key technical development to be mindful of.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is now up 0.7% to 155.80 while AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6510 on the day. The dollar is seen firming here as bond yields are also pushing higher. 10-year Treasury yields are now up over 4 bps on the day to 4.42% on the session.

Are we starting to swing back to the post-election momentum after catching a breather?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• China 2024 GDP growth seen at 4.8%, 2025 GDP growth seen at 4.5% (unchanged from Oct poll)
• Trump expected to impose 38% tariffs on Chinese goods early next year
• Proposed tariffs may cut China’s 2025 GDP growth by around 0.5% to 0.9%
• China likely to roll out more stimulus measures to counter Trump tariffs

On the final point, roughly 83% of economists are of the view that China’s recent fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have had “very little impact on the economy”. That goes to show the sort of disappointment from the hype from the announcements leading up to the Golden Week, before the lack of follow through.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.