• Hesse CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y prior
• Brandenburg CPI +1.9% vs +1.8% y/y prior
• Saxony CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.1% y/y prior

At the balance, the figures aren’t as high as estimated. This points to the national reading later coming in around 2.1%, which is lower than the expected 2.3% for November. But again, the core reading is what will matter more.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The official excuse is that the meeting is moved due to the Gulf Summit taking place in Kuwait on 1 December. But reading between the lines, perhaps some members need more convincing in reaching a common ground to decide what to do next on policy. As things stand, the planned oil output hike will be due to start in January. But we could see that timeline get kicked down the road, with the decision needing to be made in the coming week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.7%
• France CAC 40 +0.5%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX +0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%

After two days of struggles, European stocks are looking to bounce back today in what has been a back and forth last two weeks. And for some indices, it has been the story for the month of November itself. That said, Trump tariffs remain a threat and presents a big challenge to the outlook going into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.8%
• HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• Prior +1.8%

Core annual inflation was seen at 2.4%, marginally lower than the 2.5% reading in October. So, that’s a welcome development and offsets the rise in headline prices which largely has to do with base effects.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Imposing tariffs arbitrarily on trade partners won’t solve the problems that the US have itself

It’s all a war of words for now. But when the time comes, expect some form of tit-for-tat retaliation at the very least. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a resemblance we will get to Trump’s first term as president.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The meeting was supposed to take place on 1 December. It seems that it will still be held online though. The delay here raises further debate on whether the bloc is going to kick the can down the road on its planned output hike – which is due to start in January.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar sold off in trading yesterday, which arguably had more to do with month-end shenanigans more than anything else. The flows look to be rushed this time around as everyone wants to get things settled before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in. And with that, we are seeing major currencies settle down again today with the dollar recouping some light ground early on.

It’s not indicative of much yet but thinner liquidity conditions may not offer much of any direction either before the weekend. So, just be wary of that when reading into the market moves over the next few sessions.

With US out of commission, the focus is going to stay on Europe especially with inflation data on the agenda for today and tomorrow. Looking to the session ahead, we will have inflation numbers from Spain and Germany before moving on to France, Italy, and the overall Eurozone on Friday.

Besides that though, market players will be left to fend for themselves during the holiday period. It’s one of those times where taking a break might be better than trying to read too much into the market moves in the next two days.

0800 GMT – Spain November preliminary CPI figures0900 GMT – Eurozone October M3 money supply1000 GMT – Eurozone November final consumer confidence1000 GMT – Eurozone November economic, industrial, services confidence1300 GMT – Germany November preliminary CPI figures

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany remains a real buzzkill for the ECB at the moment. Europe’s largest economy is putting a real drag on the growth outlook and on the inflation front, price pressures are also looking fairly sticky. And that should once again be the case this month as well.

In terms of headline annual inflation, it did dip below the 2% mark in recent months but is estimated to climb back up to 2.3% in November. That’s not the whole story though.

Core annual inflation actually climbed last month to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in September. And that’s the real issue if it continues to stick that way in the months ahead as well.

For now though, the comfort is that other economies are at least seeing slower price pressures. And the fact that there is a stronger focus towards the economic slowdown in Europe, rather than inflation for the time being.

But at some point if this persists long enough, stagflation fears will start to creep in. And that won’t bode well for Germany, especially with its manufacturing sector already in a recession for the past year.

Here’s the agenda for today:

• 0900 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
• 0900 GMT – Hesse
• 0900 GMT – Bavaria
• 0900 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
• 0900 GMT – Saxony
• 1300 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures

Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.85%, Shanghai Composite down 0.04%, Hang Seng down 1.12% ASX up 0.45%
• Commodities : Gold at $2657.35 (-0.34%), Silver at $30.9 (-0.28%), Brent Oil at $72.24 (-0.16%), WTI Oil at $68.7 (-0.29%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.260, UK 10-year yield at 4.295, Germany 10-year yield at 2.1660

News & Data:

• (USD) Prelim GDP q/q 2.8% vs 2.8% expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims 213K vs 215K expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday as Wall Street’s rally paused and investors evaluated South Korea’s unexpected interest rate cut. The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% annually in October, up from 2.1% in September. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased to 2.8% from 2.7%, aligning with economists’ forecasts.

The Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.0%, defying expectations for a pause after October’s similar reduction. Following the decision, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.15%, while the Kosdaq climbed 0.53%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.24% and recovered to 0.85%, and the Topix remained flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.49%, hitting a fresh intraday high. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.24% after its strongest gain this month on Wednesday, and China’s CSI 300 traded flat.

In the U.S., major indices declined amid thin trading. Tech stocks led losses, with Nvidia down over 1% and Meta Platforms sliding 0.8%. Dell and HP plunged more than 12% and 11%, respectively, following weak earnings forecasts. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 5,998.74, ending a seven-day winning streak. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% to 19,060.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 138.25 points, or 0.31%, to close at 44,722.06, reversing earlier gains.

U.S. markets will remain closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Current Account

The post Thursday 28th November 2024: Asia-Pacific Markets React to South Korea’s Rate Cut and Wall Street Slowdown first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

During the Asian session, forex markets reacted to key economic data and central bank actions. 

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakened after the RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%, signaling dovish policy amid subdued economic activity. 

The Japanese yen (JPY) softened as strong U.S. economic data, including 2.8% GDP growth and low unemployment claims, supported the U.S. dollar, pushing USD/JPY higher. 

The Australian dollar (AUD) saw limited movement, with traders awaiting a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock later in the day. 

The euro (EUR) was steady ahead of German CPI data, while the British pound (GBP) traded on external influences without major UK data. 

The Canadian dollar (CAD) was supported by expectations of modest oil price increases, and the Swiss franc (CHF) weakened slightly amid reduced safe-haven demand following positive U.S. data.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The Asia session’s developments set a cautious tone for the Europe and U.S. sessions. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to remain under pressure following the RBNZ’s dovish rate cut to 4.25%, with traders adjusting to lower yield expectations. 

The Japanese yen (JPY) may weaken further against the U.S. dollar if strong U.S. economic data, including the Core PCE Price Index, reinforces dollar strength.

The euro (EUR) will focus on German CPI data during the European session; higher inflation could boost the EUR, while weaker data may weigh on it. 

The British pound (GBP) is likely to trade in response to EUR movements and broader U.S. dollar trends. Oil price movements will influence the Canadian dollar (CAD), while reduced safe-haven demand may keep the Swiss franc (CHF) subdued unless geopolitical risks emerge.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Despite strong U.S. economic data, including 2.8% GDP growth, a seven-month low in unemployment claims, and a rise in the Core PCE Price Index to 2.8%, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has declined. This unexpected drop may result from various factors. First, investors may have anticipated even stronger data, leading to profit-taking after the releases. 

Second, while inflation pressures could keep the Federal Reserve cautious, market participants might believe the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle, prompting expectations of future rate cuts. 

Third, improved global risk sentiment may have driven demand for higher-yielding assets, reducing the appeal of the safe-haven dollar. Lastly, technical factors, such as resistance levels or stop-loss triggers, might have exacerbated selling pressure on the DXY. 

Overall, the decline reflects a mix of market expectations, sentiment, and technical trading dynamics, despite the robust U.S. economic backdrop.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices declined today as strong U.S. economic data supported the dollar. Preliminary GDP growth of 2.8% in Q3, driven by strong consumer spending and exports, highlighted economic resilience. 

Unemployment claims fell to 213,000, a seven-month low, reflecting a robust labor market and boosting dollar strength. 

Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index rose to 2.8% year-over-year, signaling persistent inflationary pressures and reinforcing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. 

These factors combined to strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal as a safe-haven and non-yielding asset, pressuring prices as investors anticipate continued U.S. economic strength and cautious monetary tightening.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Gov Bullock Speaks  (8:55 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s speech at 8:55 AM GMT today could influence the Australian dollar (AUD). Markets will watch for her tone on monetary policy. A hawkish stance, signaling concerns about inflation and potential rate hikes, may strengthen the AUD, while a dovish tone, highlighting economic challenges or prolonged accommodative policy, could weaken it. A neutral stance might have minimal immediate impact but could guide future market expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 5th November, marking the eighth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but the forecasts published in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.
• Headline inflation was 2.8% over the year to the September quarter, down from 3.8% over the year to the June quarter; this was as expected due to declines in fuel and electricity prices in the September quarter.
• However, this decline reflects a temporary cost of living relief; abstracting from these effects, underlying inflation (as represented by the trimmed mean) was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter and is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• Growth in output has been weak as past declines in real disposable incomes and the ongoing effect of restrictive financial conditions continue to weigh on household consumption, particularly discretionary consumption.
• However, growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, has remained more resilient.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, and while conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised.
• Employment grew strongly over the three months to September, by an average of 0.4% per month but the unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, up from the trough of 3.5% in late 2022.
• While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high while the November SMP forecasts suggest that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching the midpoint.
• This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and it will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
• Next meeting is on 10 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25% on November 27, 2024, marking its third cut in 4 months. This move reflects easing inflation pressures and economic challenges, including weak investment, subdued consumer spending, and a soft labor market. The RBNZ hinted at further cuts, targeting a neutral rate of 2.5-3.5% by 2025. The dovish stance is likely to pressure the New Zealand dollar (NZD), reducing its yield appeal. Future OCR decisions will depend on evolving economic conditions, adding potential volatility to the NZD in the near term –  the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5867

Resistance: 0.5935

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.75% in October as inflation converges to target.
• The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation is within its 1 to 3% inflation target range and converging on the 2% midpoint.
• Economic activity in New Zealand is subdued, in part due to restrictive monetary policy while business investment and consumer spending have been weak, and employment conditions continue to soften.
• The economy is now in a position of excess capacity, encouraging price- and wage-setting to adjust to a low-inflation economy; lower import prices have assisted the disinflation.
• High-frequency indicators point to continued subdued growth in the near term, mostly due to weak consumer spending and business investment while labour market conditions are expected to ease further, with filled jobs and advertised vacancy rates continuing to decline.
• The Committee confirmed that future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy.
• Next meeting is on 27 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

JPY is expected to trade within 149.42 – 151.42 today, influenced by key economic events that strengthen USD/JPY – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 150.26

Resistance: 152.42

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German Prelim CPI m/m ( All Day)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Germany’s preliminary CPI data for November, released today, will influence the euro (EUR). A higher-than-expected CPI could signal rising inflationary pressures, raising expectations of tighter European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and strengthening the EUR. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI may indicate subdued inflation, prompting expectations of prolonged accommodative policies, potentially weakening the EUR. As Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, this data is closely watched for its implications on regional inflation trends and ECB decisions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

With no major Swiss economic releases today, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is influenced by external factors, particularly U.S. economic data from November 27. Strong U.S. GDP growth (2.8%) and a decline in unemployment claims (213,000) highlight a resilient U.S. economy, supporting the dollar and pressuring the CHF. Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index rose to 2.8%, reinforcing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, which may further weaken the CHF against the USD – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8765

Resistance: 0.8855

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

The release of Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) can indirectly influence the British Pound (GBP) through its impact on the Euro (EUR). As Germany is the Eurozone’s largest economy, significant deviations in its CPI can affect EUR value. A higher-than-expected German CPI may strengthen the EUR, potentially leading to a weaker GBP against the EUR. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI could weaken the EUR, possibly resulting in a stronger GBP relative to the EUR. However, the direct impact on GBP/USD is likely to be limited, as this pair is more directly influenced by UK and U.S. economic data – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2615

Resistance: 1.2834

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
• CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
• The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
• GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
• The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
• Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
• Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• Next meeting is on 19 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no major Canadian economic data releases scheduled for today, the Canadian dollar (CAD) is likely to be influenced by external factors, particularly developments in the U.S. economy and global commodity markets. Recent U.S. economic indicators, such as robust GDP growth and a strong labor market, have bolstered the U.S. dollar, which may exert downward pressure on the CAD. Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices, a key Canadian export, can significantly impact the CAD’s value – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.4013

Resistance: 1.4088

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• Next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major events today, oil prices are influenced by ongoing market dynamics. Analysts note oil is undervalued by around $5 per barrel, with factors like global reserve restocking, OPEC+ production cuts, and risks to Iran’s supply providing support. Brent crude is projected to peak at $78 per barrel by mid-2025 before easing. OPEC+ compliance has improved, with production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia declining by 0.5 million barrels per day in November, reducing market oversupply – the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 67.59

Resistance: 69.09

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 106.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 105.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that algins with the 61.8% Fibonacci retrtacement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.0516
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 1.0335

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.0646
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 162.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 158.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 164.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.8376

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8266

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8452
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.26151
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 1.2510

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance:  1.2735
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 162.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 190.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support close to 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 195.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 0.8855

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8765
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support close to 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 0.8917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 151.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 149.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 153.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 1.4088
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3955
Supporting reasons: Identified as pullback support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 1.4178
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6484

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6440
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a key support area where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.6557
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5867

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5816
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a key support area where price could find support.

1st resistance: 0.5935
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 44,524.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 43,330.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 45,536.44

Supporting reasons: Aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 119,233.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 18,910.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a key level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 19,680.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,965.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,872,10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support again.

1st resistance: 6,143.88
Supporting reasons: Aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish breakout off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 95,809.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 89,047.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 99,462.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support 

Pivot: 3,740.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3,486.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once aga893.83
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 68.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 66.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 70.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2607.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound

1st support: 2546,12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support.

1st resistance: 2656.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 28th November 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.