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Reuters is out with some headlines on the OPEC+ meeting, which was scheduled for Sunday but was delayed until December 5.

• OPEC+ is discussing delaying the hike for Q1
• To hold further talks in the coming days
• Scheduled output increase for Jan is among the issues to be addressed

None of this is a surprise. There has been talk of a delay through Q1 for awhile and there is also talk of a delay for all of H1. None of the talk has helped to lift oil.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes in Europe:

• Stoxx 600 +0.5%
• German DAX +0.8%
• France CAC +0.5%
• UK FTSE 100 +0.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.4%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6%

Here is how Deutsche Bank tees up the recent declines in France.

The biggest story yesterday came from France, where there remain serious
concerns about the budget situation and a potential government collapse. That led to
further losses among French equities, and the CAC 40 was down -0.72% yesterday,
underperforming the other European indices. Indeed, that keeps
the CAC 40 on track for the worst performance of the big European indices, having
fallen by -5.30% since the start of the year, which is well behind the STOXX
600 that’s seen a +5.42% gain. Banks were impacted in
particular by the latest declines, with losses for Société Générale (-3.48%),
Crédit Agricole (-1.34%) and BNP Paribas (-1.19%).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/11/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Today I spoke with BNNBloomberg about the Canadian dollar, tariffs and why there could be a black swan looming around the US dollar. The video is below.

Here are five questions:

1) Why is the Canadian dollar struggling?

his week the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since May 2020.
Excluding the pandemic and a brief rout in 2016, it’s the lowest in 21 years.

Now, it’s not entirely fair to say the loonie is struggling in a global
context. It’s right in the middle of the five-year range against the euro,
slightly below the five-year average against the pound and near a 15-year high
against the Japanese yen.

Still, it’s weakened lately and there is one main domestic driver:

• Interest rates are working as intended, slowing
  the economy. If anything, the weakness is falling too hard on real estate
  and that’s elevating risks around housing, with Toronto condos looking
  particularly ripe for a rout. The spring housing market is likely to set
  the tone for the loonie next year.

So what’s coming? More interest rates cuts that will weigh on the loonie.

If you ignore the context of a period of elevated inflation, the
overnight rate at 3.75% is far too high for the momentum in the economy and the
looming challenges. The market is pricing in a 78% chance of a 25 bps cut in
December and a 22% chance of 50 bps. The central bank would be wise be more
aggressive but that invites further CAD weakness.

2) How is the Canadian consumer doing?

Surprisingly good. The September retail sales report showed a 0.4%
monthly rise with the early indicator for October at +0.7%. The better numbers
were backed up by private surveys as well.

It’s a bit of a puzzle why consumers have held up so well despite high
rates. There are two theories:

• The wealth effect. Yes, mortgage rates are higher
  and that’s squeezing over-leveraged Canadians but those with lower
  mortgage balances saw home prices double over five years and that’s
  leading to a spending dividend.
• Population growth. We learned from parliament
  this week that there are 4.9m people on expiring visas in the next 13
  months. We’ve also gotten confused reporting about how many people are
  actually in this country. There is a very real possibility that we’ve
  undercounted and the extra population is helping to keep spending
  elevated.

3) What does the reversal in population growth mean?

The tough question for the loonie is how many people will be leaving the
country from those 4.9 million? I don’t think many analysts in telcos or
banking have a drop of anywhere close to that number in their models. If they
do leave, what does it mean for rents? For housing? For consumption?

To some extent we’re flying blind here but I expect in the next 12
months we will get those answers and some sense of where population is heading
in the future. It’s increasingly clear to me the upcoming election will be
fought over immigration but it’s less clear where it’s headed or what the actual number of immigrants in the country is.

4) What about tariffs?

The Canadian dollar plummeted on Monday after Trump’s tariff threat. But
more telling is how it’s nearly completely recouped that decline, despite
falling oil prices.

A big reason why is that it doesn’t look like a serious threat and even
if it is, it’s not an economic threat. Trump wants Canada and Mexico to stop
illegal immigration and drugs. Canada has already gotten to work on the border,
with illegal crossings down 60% since the summer. That work will continue but
it’s solvable and the economic costs to Canada to solve them are negligible. So
there is an optimistic outcome here where Canada appeases Trump and retains
tariff-free trade while the White House turns his gaze to the rest of the
world. That could result in Canada having a preferential trading position. Even
in 2026, when Trump has threatened to reopen NAFTA (or the USMCA), the main
issue appears to be trans-shipping, which also has a low economic cost for
Canada to fix.

5) Why is the US dollar slipping this week?

Trump has a series of goals: 1) Stronger US growth, 2) The fiscal
deficit falling to 3% from 7% of GDP 3) A much-improved trade deficit 4) A
rising stock market.

Tariffs won’t accomplish these but here’s what could (at least in
nominal terms): A weaker dollar.

Incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has alluded to using tariffs
as a threat to trigger a revaluation, particularly against the Chinese yuan.
Given the broad strength of the dollar, there are other parts of the world that
would also welcome measures to weaken the dollar, including Japan and possibly
Europe.

It would be something out of left field but Bessent was making monthly
trips to Japan during the Abenomics period of major yen weakening and it left
an impression on him.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Victory against inflation is in sight.
• The inflation target may be reached in early 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• If Ukraine becomes a nuclear power, Russia will use all means of destruction.
• Damage from ATACMS strikes on Russia was minimal.
• Choice of response weapon depends on damage.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 4.6% (revised to 4.9%)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -8.5 billion (revised to -4.7 billion)

This is not a market moving release

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.0%
• HICP +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expected
• Prior +2.4%

Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation crept a little higher but less than estimated, as per the state readings earlier. That owes more to base effects, with monthly inflation seen down 0.2%. The EU-harmonised reading was the same as October though for the year-on-year estimate. I’ll update the details for the core reading in a bit as the Destatis website is facing technical issues at the moment. Update: Core annual inflation is estimated to be at 3.0%, up from 2.9% in October. Yikes. Not good news for the ECB. Stagflation incoming for Germany?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• RBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cut
• RBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respond
• RBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administration
• ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in the long-term
• Bavaria November CPI +2.6% vs +2.4% y/y prior
• Spain November preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• Eurozone November final consumer confidence -13.7 vs -13.7 prelim
• Eurozone October M3 money supply 3.4% vs 3.4% y/y expected
• OPEC+ meeting confirmed to be rescheduled to 5 December
• China reaffirms stance of opposing unilateral tariff increases

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher, DAX up 0.6%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,645.54
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $69.10
• Bitcoin down 0.9% to $95,583

It was a relatively quiet session with broader markets looking to take a bit of a breather amid the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. This should continue into the weekend, as typically the festive period extends through to tomorrow as well.

The dollar was sold off yesterday, arguably due to month-end flows. But today, the greenback is finding steadier footing as it sits just a little higher on the day. It’s more or less the dollar just recovering some light ground as the rushed flows abate.

USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 151.68 with the high earlier touching 151.98 while the other major currencies are just marginally lower against the dollar so far on the day. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0550 while GBP/USD is down 0.1% to 1.2665 only.

In the equities space, European indices are looking to bounce back today after a sluggish showing in the past two days. On the month itself, it has been a struggle for most regional indices outside of the DAX.

Besides that, gold is sitting a little higher but still caught within near-term levels pointed out yesterday here. Price is up 0.4% to $2,645, just under its 100-hour moving average of around $2,652 currently.

Meanwhile, oil is up slightly as the OPEC+ online meeting gets delayed to next week. Is the bloc taking more time to contemplate their decision to kick the can down the road on their planned output hike in January? WTI crude is up 0.6% to just above $69 for now.

To those celebrating, I wish you a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the holiday festivities.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -12.5
• Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.1 expected
• Prior 95.6; revised to 95.7
• Industrial confidence -11.1 vs -13.2 expected
• Prior -13.0; revised to -12.6
• Services confidence 5.3 vs 6.2 expected
• Prior 7.1; revised to 6.8

Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area actually improved on the month but the devil is in the details. It was to do with better sentiment in the industrial sector, though keeping in negative territory. As for services sentiment, that deteriorated again on the month. As such, the outlook remains more challenging for the Eurozone especially with the prospect of Trump tariffs on the horizon.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• M3 Money Supply Y/Y 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected and 3.2% prior.
• Loans to Households Y/Y 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.
• Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.2% vs. 1.1% prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.