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Japan’s Industry Minister says the government will provide up to 100 bln yen support for 8 projects including in
semiconductors, advanced electronic components.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to plunge:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eyes on USD/JPY, as usual, its down towards 150.60 after the solid inflation data earlier:

• Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)
• USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published

The dollar is lower more widely also. EUR/USD is near session highs circa 1.0570, for example.

Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news or data.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Quiet Markets for Thanksgiving Holiday

As expected, it was a quiet trading day across most financial markets yesterday as investors and traders alike reduced activity due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. US markets were closed, but the three major indices futures all pushed higher: the S&P rose by 0.2%, the Nasdaq by 0.3%, and the Dow by 0.2%. The dollar also had a quiet day, with the DXY gaining slightly, moving up 0.07% to 106.16. Oil prices saw some movement as news of ceasefire violations in Israel hit the wires, with Brent gaining 0.5% to reach $73.17 a barrel and WTI rising 0.2% to $68.88 a barrel. Gold also moved higher on the news, as haven buyers entered the market, increasing by 0.2% to close at $2,640.96 an ounce.

Asian Currencies on the Back Foot for Tariff Trades

Asian currencies have been trading on the back foot for the past few weeks following Donald Trump’s US election victory, as investors fear tariffs across the globe will hit the region hard. The CNY has been the most affected in the initial market reaction, but other Far Eastern currencies have also suffered, with the Korean won particularly vulnerable. This comes after a surprise rate cut from the Korean Central Bank earlier this week. Other currencies being targeted by traders include the Malaysian ringgit and the Singapore dollar, with bearish positions on the latter now at a two-year high, as well as the Indonesian rupiah. Given Trump’s recent updates, traders expect further volatility in these currencies in the coming weeks, with most favouring short positions.

US Markets Back Open Today

US markets reopen today, although relatively quiet trading is expected, as many trading desks will operate with reduced numbers, with staff taking advantage of the extra day off to extend the weekend. All other markets are running as normal, and some macroeconomic events may drive movements. In Asia, the initial focus will be on Japanese markets, with the release of key Tokyo CPI data early in the session. A range of updates is expected as Europe opens, starting with Swiss GDP data, followed by Eurozone flash CPI numbers. Later in the day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will address the press on the Financial Stability Report. In North America, Canada’s latest GDP data will be released near the start of the New York trading session.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/11/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Both of these miss.

On output, the outlooks:

• Manufacturers expect November output to be -2.2% m/m
• expect December output to be -0.5% m/m

Earlier from Japan today:

• Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)
• USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Tokyo headline CPI data showed a big jump in November:

• Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)

As I said in that post, this data is a point in favour of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting, and thus yen supportive.

If you were having a break from eating turkey you’d have seen USD/JPY dropping just prior to the data release. Things like this do happen, sure, but things like this can also be suspicious (someone got a leak?).

Information flow from Japan can often be a bit leaky. There is a reason we have a pic like this in the ForexLive archive!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tokyo area November 2024 inflation data has jumped much higher:

USD/JPY has dropped, this data is a solid point in favour of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting.

There won’t be a ‘national/ November CPI data release prior to the December BoJ meeting, but with a jump like this in Tokyo surely its enough for the Bank to get on with?

Japan Tokyo headline CPI 2.6% y/y

• expected 2.2%, prior 1.8%

Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food 2.2% y/y

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.8%

Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy 1.9% y/y

• expected 1.9%, prior 1.8%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a quiet one in US trading so far as FX trade sideways.

Friday will be a tad more lively with stocks and bonds back open but it’s a de facto holiday as well and the US economic calendar is bare. There will be Canadian GDP tomorrow as Canada isn’t on holiday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Still net pessimistic, but much improved. At 99.8 it’s the highest in 3 years.

As part of the survey ANZ question consumer inflation expectations. These moved up to 4.0% from 3.8%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tokyo area inflation data is the focus for the session – this might give us a heads up what the Bank of Japan is thinking about a rate rise at the December 18-19 meeting.

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
• It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
• Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Mexican peso is scarcely lower than where it was when Trump first announced he would be putting a 25% tariff on all exports from the country, including oil & gas.

The market barely believed it at the outset because it would drive up prices for American, badly hurt American companies operating in Mexico and invite retaliation.

Trump started to walk back the threat late yesterday.

That’s optimistic and Sheinbau later said there was “no potential tariff war” and that caravans were being dealt with in Mexico.

My best guess (and it’s always a guess with Trump) is that he’s going to allow free trade in North America while leaning on tariffs abroad to meet his goals. That could mean this is an opportunity to buy the Mexican peso and Mexican assets.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin rebounded strongly on Wednesday but it has given some back today on US Thanksgiving. It’s a quieter market with US equities and bonds closed and that’s spread to crypto, which has been less volatile.

Bitcoin is down 1.1%, or $1,110 to $95,308 today. It fell as low as $90,638 on Tuesday but has rebounded and remains within striking distance of $100,000.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.