Articles

• US stocks close higher on the day
• Reuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27
• Crude oil settles at $70.10
• Is today the day for Bitcoin 100K? Just $1500 away now
• More from Goolsbee: Feels like we are heading to 2% inflation
• Matt Gaetz withdraws name for Attorney General nomination
• Fed’s Goolsbee: It may make sense to slow pace of interest rate cuts
• Major European indices close higher on the day
• Age of AI: Nvidia’s Explosive Earnings
• US leading Index for October -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate
• US existing home sales for October 3.96M versus 3.93M
• BOE Mann: BOE should hold rates longer to evaluate persistence
• Tech rebounds as Nvidia surges, Google stumbles
• ECBs Holzmann says warnings of undershooting 2% are not warranted
• Canada producer price is for October 1 .2% versus -0.8% last month
• Philadelphia Fed Business Index for November -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate
• US initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate
• What technical levels are in play for some of the major currencies vs the USD for Nov 21
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar tentative amid mixed markets
• Zelensky says Russia used new missile in attack on Ukraine today

Markets:

• Gold up $19.76 or 0.75% at $2669.75
• US 10-year yield 4.42%, up 1.6 bps
• US 2-year yield 4.344%, up 3.6 bps
• WTI crude oil up $1.44 or 2.09% at $70.19
• S&P 500 rose 31.59 points ro 0.53% at $5948.70
• NASDAQ rose 6.28 points or 0.03% at 18972.42
• Russell 2000 rose 38.49 points or 1.65% at 2364.01
• Dow rose 461.88 points or 1.06% at 43870.35
• European shares moved higher. The Dax and Italy’s FTSE MIB snapped 4 day losing streaks.

The US dollar was mixed in trading today with a bias to the upside. The USD fell vs the JPY, CAD and AUD.

• EUR, +0.61%
• JPY -0.59%
• GBP, +0.41%
• CHF +0.28%
• CAD -0.03%
• AUD -0.15%
• NZD +0.19%
• DXY +0.32%

Fundamentally, existing home sales increased by 3.4% to an annualized sales pace of 3.96M

Key takeaways from the existing home sales

• Existing-home sales increased by 3.4% in October to 3.96 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

• Sales rose 2.9% compared to October 2023, the first year-over-year gain since July 2021.

• Median existing-home sales price grew 4.0% year-over-year to $407,200.

• This marks the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

• Unsold existing homes inventory rose 0.7% to 1.37 million.

• Inventory represents 4.2 months’ supply at the current sales pace.

The rise comes despite mortgage rates moving higher. The current 30-year mortgage rate is at 6.84% up from 6.00% at lows from September.

US initial jobless claims came in less than expectations at 213K vs 220K estimate. However, continuing claims were higher than expectations and above last week’s levels. Continuing claims came in at 1.908M vs 1.873M est and 1.872M last week. Jobs market still remains strong/solid.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing was mixed with the current business index moving to negative at -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate and 10.3 last month. However, the 6-month index jumped to 56.60 from 36.70 last month. That took that measure to the highest level since the post-covid recovery.

Canada producer price data was higher after a few months of declines. That did give CAD buyers a reason to further correct the USDCAD lower. However, the fall was short lived and that pair is closing near unchanged.

Fed’s Goolsbee spoke today. The Chicago Fed President suggested that it may be prudent for the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as they approach the level where rates will stabilize. He expects rates to be significantly lower within the next year and noted that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, with the labor market near stable full employment. Goolsbee emphasized the importance of forward-looking data, such as inflation expectations, while refraining from speculating on the effects of unimplemented policies. He also highlighted that the neutral rate remains far below current levels.

ECBs Holzmann was less dovish stating that concerns about inflation undershooting the 2% target are unwarranted. He emphasized the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy in light of ongoing price risks. Holzmann noted that while a rate cut in December is the most likely outcome, it is not guaranteed.

Yields moved higher today for the 2nd consecutive day. The 2 year yield is skimming the corrective high from last week at 4.353%.

• 2-year yield 4.347%, +3.9 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.299%, +2.7 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.423%, +1.6 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.609%, +1.7 basis points
• 2-10 year spread is down -2.0 bps at 7.5 bps
• 2-30 year spread is also down -2.0 bps at 26 bps

Bitcoin reached another record level with the price pushing BITCOIN 100K. The high price today reached $99,121 but backed off and trades at $98,182.

Technically speaking:

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a new 2024 low taking out the low from last week at 1.04956. The 2023 low price from remains the next target at 1.0448. Move below that and the 50% of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high comes in at 1.0405. A bounce higher could see more upside momentum on a move above the high of a swing area at 1.05316. Get and stay above that and the 100 hour MA at 1.0555 (and moving lower would be targeted.

USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower in the early Asian session and bounced off the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 153.88 currently. The price bounced up toward the falling 100 hour MA at 154.72 and the 200 hour MA at 154.89. A move above those levels would tilt the bias more to the upside once again as the ups-and-down for the week continue into the last day of the week. Stay below the hourly MAs, and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart will be eyed as key support.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since May with a break of the low from last week at 1.2596. The low reached 1.2575 and bounced back to the 1.2596 low from last week. Buyers and sellers are battling around that level. IN the new day, watch a move above 1.26137. If there is momentum, it could tilt the sellers to buyers with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2649 as the target. That MA did a good job of stalling the rallies today. in the Asian and US morning session.

AUDUSD: For the AUDUSD the last three trading days had found support near the pairs 100 hour MA. That rising moving average currently comes in and 0.6501 which is just below the 200 hour moving average at 0.6504. That area will be a key barometer for the pair today and going forward. Stay above and more upside probing can be expected. Move below and the bias shifts more to the downside technically.

Thank you for your support. Good fortune with your trading.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Citadel founder Griffin spoke in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the Economic Club of New York:

In brief:

• have to put the fiscal house in order, warns on growth of national debt
• US doesn’t have room for tax cuts, “There’s a real question about where do we need to raise taxes to start to put our house in order.”
• got to get productivity growing
• need to look at cutting spending as well

On tariff policy, (Trump has pledged to impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imported goods, and 60% or higher on those from China):

• “I am gravely concerned that that rise of tariffs puts us on a slippery slope towards crony capitalism”
• tariffs a short-term benefit for domestic companies
• in the long term harm productivity
• tariffs will ultimately hurt the US economy
• “Now you’re going to find the halls of Washington really filled with the special interest groups and the lobbyists as people look for continued higher and higher tariffs to keep away foreign competition, and to protect inefficient American businesses that have failed to meet the needs of the American consumer”

Here’s a quick vid for more

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices moved higher today with the Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 1.65%. The NASDAQ index lags with a small 0.03% rise for the day.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +461.88 points or 1.06% at 43870.35.
• S&P index up 31.6 points or 0.53% at 5948.71.
• NASDAQ index up 6.28 points or 0.03% at 18972.42.
• Russell 2000 up 38.48 points or 1.65% at 2364.01.

Shares of Nvidia rose by $0.78 to $146.67 (gain of 0.53%) after a day of up-and-down price action. Yesterday after the close, Nvidia announced earnings that be expectations.

Snowflake also announced earnings after the close and posted its best day ever with a gain of $42.23 or +32.71% to $171.35.

Alphabet did not have a good day as antitrust probes wait on shares. The price fell $-8.35 or -4.74% to $167.63.

Some other movers today:

• Dell, +3.7%
• Shopify, +2.44%
• Microsoft, -0.63%.
• Meta -0.43%
• Oracle +0.88%
• Apple -0.21%
• Home Depot +2.61%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18-19. Today’s CPI data from Japan is the final national reading ahead of that meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke yesterday, he didn’t give too much away on the ‘hike or no hike’ question at that meetings:

• BOJ governor Ueda: We don’t make comments on short-term FX moves
• BOJ governor Ueda: We have seen how technology has diversified financial intermediation

The Tokyo inflation data for October showed headline and core dipping from September but core-core (ex-food and energy) higher.

Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A Reuters poll is showing:

• RBNZ is to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27. The current rate is at 4.75%. 27 of 30 economists look for the 50 basis point cut.
• In 2025 the median forecast is for the central bank to cut rates by total of 100 basis points

The NZDUSD move down to test a low of a pretty solid floor level and 0.58488. Having said that that floor was broken last week and earlier this week but failed on the break. Today with the price stolen against the low traders are making a play against the risk defining area with likely stops on a break below or below the lows from last week/this week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude oil is settling up $1.35 or 1.96% and $70.10. The high price today reached $70.38 while the low price was at $68.86.

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • Russia and Ukraine war remains a geopolitical risk for oil traders. Russia allegedly launched an intercontinental missile at Ukraine’s Dnipro following Ukraine’s first attack on Russian territory using foreign-supplied missiles.
  • Heightened geopolitical risks are adding a premium to oil prices.

• Supply and Demand Outlook:

  • Rising U.S. oil inventories, weak Chinese demand, and higher Western Hemisphere production are expected to push supply above demand by 2025.
  • OPEC+ may delay unwinding 2.2 million bpd voluntary supply cuts, originally scheduled to start in January, depending on market conditions.

Technically, the price bounced off the 100 hour MA on the dip yesterday. That gave the buyers the go-ahead to push the price higher.

ON the topside, the $70.55 is the next target followed by the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at $71.09.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing higher on the day. The gains are led by the German DAX which rose by 0.75% and snapped a four day losing streak.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +142.67 points or 0.75% at 19147.46
• France’s CAC, +14.87 points or 0.21% at 7213.33.
• UK’s FTSE 100 +64.20 point toward 0.79% at 8149.28.
• Spain’s Ibex +22.20 points or 0.19% at 11611.71
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +67.26 points or 0.20% at 33294.95.

Looking at the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower

• Germany 2.320%, -3.3 basis points
• France 3.101%, -0.5 basis points
• UK 4.447%, -1.7 basis points
• Spain 3.039%, -4.7 basis points
• Italy 3.575%, -0.3 basis points

as London/European traders exit, US stocks are mixed with the NASDAQ index down. The S&P and Dow industrial average are higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher and leading the way with a gain of 1.47%.

• Industrial average +332 points or 0.76% at 43739.
• S&P index up 9.59 points or 0.17% at 5927
• NASDAQ index down -93 points or -0.49% at 18872.58
• Russell 2000 up 34.15 points or 1.47% at 2359.71

Alphabet is down sharply on antitrust concerns. It shares are down -6.63%. Amazon is lower by -3%. Meta-is down -1.45%.

US yields are higher and trading near highs for the day:

• 2 year 4.333%, +2.6 basis points
• 5 year 4.292%, +2.0 basis points
• 10 year 4.421%, +1.6 basis points
• 30 year 4.609%, +1.7 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.3% revised from -0.5%
• Leading index -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate.

One day the leading index will foreshadow a recession or negative growth.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 3.84M annualized rate revised to 3.83M
• Existing home sales percentage change +3.4% versus -1.3% last month (revisor -1.0%
• Up 2.9% from October last year
• 30 year mortgage 7.05% which is up from 6% at September lows
• Inventories 4.2 months which is still low
• median price $407,200
• All-cash sales 27% which is still historically high
• First-time buyers 27% versus 40% historically

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices opened higher, but are now trading lower as the sellers entered from the bell. The NASDAQ index opened higher by about 90 points but has since found sellers and trades down on the day. HMMMM

Shares of Nvidia and Snowflake are trading higher after announcing earnings after the close. Nvidia shares are trading up $3.60 or 2.56%. Shares of Snowflake are up $34.20 or 26.55%. A snapshot of the market 6 minutes into the open is showing

• Dow industrial average -7.22 points or -0.02% at 43401.25
• S&P index -3.32 points or -0.06% at 5913.79.
• NASDAQ index -35.33 points or -0.19% at 18930.81.
• Russell 2000 up 10.43 points or 0.45% at 2335.97.

A summary of some of the large caps shows:

• Meta, -1.09%
• Amazon -0.84%
• Microsoft -0.15%
• Google -3.87%
• Apple -0.75%
• Tesla -0.32%

Shares of Nvidia are now trading up 0.80%

This is the look of the first 10-15 minutes of Nasdaq index:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.