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Some of the biggest companies were beaten up on Halloween, with Microsoft and Nvidia falling 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Closing changes:

• S&P 500 -108 points or -1.9%
• Nasdaq Comp -2.8%
• Russell 2000 -1.2%
• DJIA -0.8%
• Toronto TSX Comp -1.3%

Earnings from Amazon, Apple and Intel are coming up after the bell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Crude oil settles at $69.26
• Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike – report
• October non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Hurricane and strike effects in focus
• Mawari Announces Node Sale to Bring Immersive Content to the World
• European indices close lower. German DAX and France’s CAC down 1%
• UK Chancellor Reeves: Tax increases in budget were necessary
• Starmer spokesman: We do not comment on market movements
• BMO now thinks Bank of England likely to hold rates unchanged next week
• Gold prices fall more than $50
• The first look at Q4 from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is 2.7%
• Why you shouldn’t trade based on political polls
• UK bond blow up: A preview of things to come in the US?
• Tony Vejseli, Figure Markets and GXD Labs Address Recent Developments
• Tech downturn: Microsoft plummets as financials gain
• Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct 31 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Canada August GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• US September PCE core inflation +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• US initial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimate
• US, Employment cost for Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimate
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen firms in aftermath of BOJ decision
• US October Challenger layoffs 55.60k vs 72.82k prior

Markets:

• Gold falls -$38 or -1.37% at $2748.99
• Crude oil is trading up close to $2.00 after reports that Iran is preparing for a major retaliatory strike
• Bitcoin is down close to -$2000 at $70,372. The price peaked at $73600 on Tuesday just short of the all time high at $73794 area. The buyers turned to sellers today on the failure to push to new highs.

IN the US debt market, yields are higher but off highs for the day:

• US 2-year yields 4.162%, up 0.8 bps
• US 10 year yield 4.270%, +0.6 bps
• 30 year yield 4.461%, down -1.7 bps

The major stock indices fell sharply led by the Nasdaq as the market reacted to Microsoft and Meta earnings (the weren’t that bad but the market was not hearing it) and are getting scared ahead of the elections next week. The US jobs report will also be released tomorrow and has traders anxious..

• S&P 500 down -1.56%
• Nasdaq -2.46%
• Dow -0.64%

In the forex market, the USD was mixed:

• Japanese Yen: -0.93%
• Swiss Franc: -0.33%
• Australian Dollar: -0.03%
• New Zealand Dollar:+0.03%
• Canadian Dollar: +0.08%
• Euro: -0.16%
• British Pound: +0.61%

The core PCE data today came in as expected month on month but due to revision, the year on year was 0.1% higher at 2.7% That was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE data was lower than last month at 2.1% versus a revised 2.3% (was 2.2%).

Always good on inflation is the employment cost data for the third quarter which came in at 0.8% for the month and 3.9% for 12 months. That’s down from 4.3% in September 2023. Wages and salary also came in at 3.9% compared to 4.6% a year ago.

Initial jobless claims today was stronger at 216K versus 230K estimate. Continuing claims did fall as well to 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M. The employment statistics still seem to be strong. Tomorrow the US jobs report.

Below are the expectations:

• Consensus estimate +113K
• Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank)
• September was +254K
• Private consensus +90K versus +223K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510%
• Prior participation rate 62.7%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.7%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +233K versus +159K prior — best in a year
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment not yet released
• Challenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 prior
• Philly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 prior
• Empire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD stalled out today right at the August high of 1.3946. A break above it would have been the highest since 2022 and not far off the highest since 2020.

The pair is has climbed relentlessly since the final week of September as the Canadian economic outlook darkened and US economic data soundly beat expectations. It’s really been as simple as two neighbours moving in opposite directions with a sprinkling of oil weakness weighing further on the loonie.

Unless it broadens and strengthens, that’s not enough to crack the range. I suspect what we will need to see is some kind election result that is USD bullish and/or negative for trade — something like a red sweep. At the same time, I see risks that disappointment in Chinese stimulus could also undermine the loonie (or maybe Beijing surprises me).

At the moment, a jump in oil prices is helping to cap the pair on a report saying Iraqi militias may strike Israel.

Earlier this week I appeared on BNNBloomberg and talked about the longer-term outlook for the loonie, as well as the election.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil is settling at $69.26. That is up $0.65 or 0.95%.

Looking at the daily chart, the price yesterday moved to a swing area between $66.76 and $67.69 and stalled

Soon after the settlement, there has been a report that Iran is pairing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq.

The price is now trading at $70.39 up over one dollar from the settlement amount. There is a top-side resistance now between $71.44 and $72.43. Move above that and trad

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US election, according to two sources cited by Axios.

Oil has spiked higher on the report. There was a similar report yesterday but from a less-credible source.

The latest report is the first to highlight that the strike could come from Iraq and says that “carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.”

It’s expected to use a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 touched a session low, down 96 points or 1.6%. The Nasdaq is hurting worse, down 2.6%.

Worryingly, some of the highest flyers are being hit hardest today:

• MSFT -5.6%
• NVDA -4.7%
• META -4.6%$
• AMD -3% (after a 10% decline yesterday)
• SOXX semiconductor ETF -4.4%
• TSLA -2.6%
• GOOG -1.7% and has nearly closed yesterday’s earnings gap up

There are some bright spots out there but it’s not a great look for the Nasdaq chart. The question is: Are we looking at election angst or a retracement in the AI trade?

Earnings from Apple, Amazon and Intel are due after the bell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Consensus estimate +113K
• Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank)
• September was +254K
• Private consensus +90K versus +223K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510%
• Prior participation rate 62.7%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.7%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +233K versus +159K prior — best in a year
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment not yet released
• Challenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 prior
• Philly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 prior
• Empire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior

Of these numbers, BMO highlights initial jobless claims noting that the directional miss of that report compared to expectations is often mirrored by non-farm payrolls.

Seasonally, the October jobs headlines misses and beats 50% of the time but the average beat is 71K and average miss is 38K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate tends to be lower 42% of the time, higher 23% of the time and matching the consensus in the remainder.

The kicker in these numbers is that they are assumed to be highly distorted by hurricanes, the Boeing strike and potentially the longshoreman strike. That has shaved around 50K off the consensus, though it’s drifted back up since ADP. Because of that, I don’t think the market will punish a poor reading, though we might see bonds bid.

A strong reading would get some attention and help lift the US dollar but I can’t see any reasonable number impacting the Fed decision next week, which is 94% priced for a cut, though maybe we would see less-dovish guidance for the Dec 18 meeting? Or at least a stronger commitment to data dependence.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Societe Generale highlights 151.30 as a crucial support for USD/JPY, as the pair’s recent gains suggest strong upward momentum. While signals of a pullback are beginning to appear, maintaining above 151.30 could extend USD/JPY’s targets to higher levels.

Key Points:

• USD/JPY has climbed steadily after breaking above its 50-DMA and crossing a previous descending trend line, indicating continued upward strength.
• Immediate resistance projections are set at 155.20/156.00 and further at 157.20.
• The 200-DMA at 151.30 serves as near-term support, with a break below this level potentially triggering a short-term pullback.

Conclusion:

SocGen views 151.30 as a make-or-break level for USD/JPY, as holding above this support could sustain the pair’s upward trajectory. However, a breach may prompt a pullback, tempering momentum for the near term.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major European stock indices are closing lower on the day. The declines outlined by the German DAX and France’s CAC with each declining by 1%.

The final numbers are showing:

• German DAX, -1.03%
• France’s CAC -1.05%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.61%
• Spain’s Ibex, -0.36%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.64%

For the month, also the indices are closing lower with the exception of Italy’s FTSE MIB:

• German DAX -1.38%
• France’s CAC, -3.74%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -1.54%
• Spain’s Ibex -1.72%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.46%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Tax increases in the budget were necessary
• Tax increases were necessary, and have put UK finances on a stable trajectory.
• Vows fiscal stability.

The review of the budget now that the dust has settled

The UK’s 2024 budget analysis raises concerns about lower growth and higher interest rates. Labour’s plan include significant borrowing and spending. It includes £70 billion in annual spending, exceeding expectations, but leaving only a £10 billion buffer for deficit reduction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.