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• Adjusted EPS $1.64 vs $1.60 est
• EPS of 0.97 hurt by one-time EU charge
• Net sales $94.93B vs $94.58B est (up 6% y/y)
• iPhone net sales $46.22B vs $45.47B est

Shares are down about 1% after hours and fell 2% today.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Another PMI from China is due today. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October.

China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

• The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
• Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey.
• Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector.

Yesterday we had the official PMIs:

• China official PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0)

The manufacturing PMI scraped into expansion at 50.1. The first expansion for six months. Happy days. Expectations are that the Caixin manufacturing PMI will remain in contraction. This is despite stimulus announcements from China hitting from late September, and that continued right through October. Stimulus announcements should continue once the People’s Congress rubber stamps a few more:

• China vice fin min says further stimulus details after National People’s Congress session

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.2%
• Advance Sept GDP +0.3% m/m
• August GDP unchanged (0.0%) vs +0.1% in July
• Manufacturing sector drops 1.2%, biggest drag on growth
• Rail transportation tumbles 7.7% due to lockouts at major carriers
• Finance sector up 0.5% on market volatility and trading activity

The advanced Sept number is a nice improvement and has given a small lift to the Canadian dollar.

For August, the Canadian economy stalled as manufacturing weakness and transportation disruptions offset gains in services. The flat reading followed a modest 0.1% gain in July. Manufacturing was the biggest disappointment, falling 1.2% with both durable and non-durable goods taking hits. Auto plants faced extended maintenance shutdowns while pharmaceutical manufacturing plunged 10.3%.

Rail transportation was another weak spot, diving 7.7% as work stoppages at CN and CP Rail disrupted shipments. A bridge collapse in Ontario’s Thunder Bay port added to logistics headaches.

The reversal of some of those factors is what likely boosted September with finance, construction and retail leading gains. This suggests Q3 GDP growth of around 0.2%.

There are signs of resilience in services but with inflation below target and growth stagnant, the Bank of Canada needs the overnight rate well below 3.75% and shouldn’t hesitate to continue cutting by 50 bps, though right now pricing only suggests a 23% chance of a larger cut.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Coming into today, the main US stock market indexes looked like they would be climbing for the sixth straight month and 11 of the past 12.

Instead, heavy selling hit and erased the monthly gains and more. As a result:

• S&P 500 -1.0%
• Nasdaq Comp -0.5%
• Russell 2000 -1.2%
• DJIA -1.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%

Seasonally, November and December are very strong months, so strap in. That said, it will be dicey until election day.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales and spending numbers have shown a strong US consumer and Amazon backed that up with a strong quarter.

• EPS 1.43 vs 1.14 est
• Net income 15.3B vs 12.24B est
• Sales 158.9B vs 157.2B est
• Sees Q4 net sales 181.5B to 188.5B

Shares have jumped $10 to $198 on the results, which would put it at the highest since July.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Some of the biggest companies were beaten up on Halloween, with Microsoft and Nvidia falling 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Closing changes:

• S&P 500 -108 points or -1.9%
• Nasdaq Comp -2.8%
• Russell 2000 -1.2%
• DJIA -0.8%
• Toronto TSX Comp -1.3%

Earnings from Amazon, Apple and Intel are coming up after the bell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Crude oil settles at $69.26
• Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike – report
• October non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Hurricane and strike effects in focus
• Mawari Announces Node Sale to Bring Immersive Content to the World
• European indices close lower. German DAX and France’s CAC down 1%
• UK Chancellor Reeves: Tax increases in budget were necessary
• Starmer spokesman: We do not comment on market movements
• BMO now thinks Bank of England likely to hold rates unchanged next week
• Gold prices fall more than $50
• The first look at Q4 from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is 2.7%
• Why you shouldn’t trade based on political polls
• UK bond blow up: A preview of things to come in the US?
• Tony Vejseli, Figure Markets and GXD Labs Address Recent Developments
• Tech downturn: Microsoft plummets as financials gain
• Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct 31 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Canada August GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• US September PCE core inflation +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• US initial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimate
• US, Employment cost for Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimate
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen firms in aftermath of BOJ decision
• US October Challenger layoffs 55.60k vs 72.82k prior

Markets:

• Gold falls -$38 or -1.37% at $2748.99
• Crude oil is trading up close to $2.00 after reports that Iran is preparing for a major retaliatory strike
• Bitcoin is down close to -$2000 at $70,372. The price peaked at $73600 on Tuesday just short of the all time high at $73794 area. The buyers turned to sellers today on the failure to push to new highs.

IN the US debt market, yields are higher but off highs for the day:

• US 2-year yields 4.162%, up 0.8 bps
• US 10 year yield 4.270%, +0.6 bps
• 30 year yield 4.461%, down -1.7 bps

The major stock indices fell sharply led by the Nasdaq as the market reacted to Microsoft and Meta earnings (the weren’t that bad but the market was not hearing it) and are getting scared ahead of the elections next week. The US jobs report will also be released tomorrow and has traders anxious..

• S&P 500 down -1.56%
• Nasdaq -2.46%
• Dow -0.64%

In the forex market, the USD was mixed:

• Japanese Yen: -0.93%
• Swiss Franc: -0.33%
• Australian Dollar: -0.03%
• New Zealand Dollar:+0.03%
• Canadian Dollar: +0.08%
• Euro: -0.16%
• British Pound: +0.61%

The core PCE data today came in as expected month on month but due to revision, the year on year was 0.1% higher at 2.7% That was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE data was lower than last month at 2.1% versus a revised 2.3% (was 2.2%).

Always good on inflation is the employment cost data for the third quarter which came in at 0.8% for the month and 3.9% for 12 months. That’s down from 4.3% in September 2023. Wages and salary also came in at 3.9% compared to 4.6% a year ago.

Initial jobless claims today was stronger at 216K versus 230K estimate. Continuing claims did fall as well to 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M. The employment statistics still seem to be strong. Tomorrow the US jobs report.

Below are the expectations:

• Consensus estimate +113K
• Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank)
• September was +254K
• Private consensus +90K versus +223K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510%
• Prior participation rate 62.7%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.7%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +233K versus +159K prior — best in a year
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment not yet released
• Challenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 prior
• Philly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 prior
• Empire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD stalled out today right at the August high of 1.3946. A break above it would have been the highest since 2022 and not far off the highest since 2020.

The pair is has climbed relentlessly since the final week of September as the Canadian economic outlook darkened and US economic data soundly beat expectations. It’s really been as simple as two neighbours moving in opposite directions with a sprinkling of oil weakness weighing further on the loonie.

Unless it broadens and strengthens, that’s not enough to crack the range. I suspect what we will need to see is some kind election result that is USD bullish and/or negative for trade — something like a red sweep. At the same time, I see risks that disappointment in Chinese stimulus could also undermine the loonie (or maybe Beijing surprises me).

At the moment, a jump in oil prices is helping to cap the pair on a report saying Iraqi militias may strike Israel.

Earlier this week I appeared on BNNBloomberg and talked about the longer-term outlook for the loonie, as well as the election.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil is settling at $69.26. That is up $0.65 or 0.95%.

Looking at the daily chart, the price yesterday moved to a swing area between $66.76 and $67.69 and stalled

Soon after the settlement, there has been a report that Iran is pairing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq.

The price is now trading at $70.39 up over one dollar from the settlement amount. There is a top-side resistance now between $71.44 and $72.43. Move above that and trad

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US election, according to two sources cited by Axios.

Oil has spiked higher on the report. There was a similar report yesterday but from a less-credible source.

The latest report is the first to highlight that the strike could come from Iraq and says that “carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.”

It’s expected to use a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 touched a session low, down 96 points or 1.6%. The Nasdaq is hurting worse, down 2.6%.

Worryingly, some of the highest flyers are being hit hardest today:

• MSFT -5.6%
• NVDA -4.7%
• META -4.6%$
• AMD -3% (after a 10% decline yesterday)
• SOXX semiconductor ETF -4.4%
• TSLA -2.6%
• GOOG -1.7% and has nearly closed yesterday’s earnings gap up

There are some bright spots out there but it’s not a great look for the Nasdaq chart. The question is: Are we looking at election angst or a retracement in the AI trade?

Earnings from Apple, Amazon and Intel are due after the bell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.