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A Reuters poll is showing:

• RBNZ is to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27. The current rate is at 4.75%. 27 of 30 economists look for the 50 basis point cut.
• In 2025 the median forecast is for the central bank to cut rates by total of 100 basis points

The NZDUSD move down to test a low of a pretty solid floor level and 0.58488. Having said that that floor was broken last week and earlier this week but failed on the break. Today with the price stolen against the low traders are making a play against the risk defining area with likely stops on a break below or below the lows from last week/this week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude oil is settling up $1.35 or 1.96% and $70.10. The high price today reached $70.38 while the low price was at $68.86.

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • Russia and Ukraine war remains a geopolitical risk for oil traders. Russia allegedly launched an intercontinental missile at Ukraine’s Dnipro following Ukraine’s first attack on Russian territory using foreign-supplied missiles.
  • Heightened geopolitical risks are adding a premium to oil prices.

• Supply and Demand Outlook:

  • Rising U.S. oil inventories, weak Chinese demand, and higher Western Hemisphere production are expected to push supply above demand by 2025.
  • OPEC+ may delay unwinding 2.2 million bpd voluntary supply cuts, originally scheduled to start in January, depending on market conditions.

Technically, the price bounced off the 100 hour MA on the dip yesterday. That gave the buyers the go-ahead to push the price higher.

ON the topside, the $70.55 is the next target followed by the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at $71.09.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing higher on the day. The gains are led by the German DAX which rose by 0.75% and snapped a four day losing streak.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +142.67 points or 0.75% at 19147.46
• France’s CAC, +14.87 points or 0.21% at 7213.33.
• UK’s FTSE 100 +64.20 point toward 0.79% at 8149.28.
• Spain’s Ibex +22.20 points or 0.19% at 11611.71
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +67.26 points or 0.20% at 33294.95.

Looking at the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower

• Germany 2.320%, -3.3 basis points
• France 3.101%, -0.5 basis points
• UK 4.447%, -1.7 basis points
• Spain 3.039%, -4.7 basis points
• Italy 3.575%, -0.3 basis points

as London/European traders exit, US stocks are mixed with the NASDAQ index down. The S&P and Dow industrial average are higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher and leading the way with a gain of 1.47%.

• Industrial average +332 points or 0.76% at 43739.
• S&P index up 9.59 points or 0.17% at 5927
• NASDAQ index down -93 points or -0.49% at 18872.58
• Russell 2000 up 34.15 points or 1.47% at 2359.71

Alphabet is down sharply on antitrust concerns. It shares are down -6.63%. Amazon is lower by -3%. Meta-is down -1.45%.

US yields are higher and trading near highs for the day:

• 2 year 4.333%, +2.6 basis points
• 5 year 4.292%, +2.0 basis points
• 10 year 4.421%, +1.6 basis points
• 30 year 4.609%, +1.7 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.3% revised from -0.5%
• Leading index -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate.

One day the leading index will foreshadow a recession or negative growth.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 3.84M annualized rate revised to 3.83M
• Existing home sales percentage change +3.4% versus -1.3% last month (revisor -1.0%
• Up 2.9% from October last year
• 30 year mortgage 7.05% which is up from 6% at September lows
• Inventories 4.2 months which is still low
• median price $407,200
• All-cash sales 27% which is still historically high
• First-time buyers 27% versus 40% historically

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices opened higher, but are now trading lower as the sellers entered from the bell. The NASDAQ index opened higher by about 90 points but has since found sellers and trades down on the day. HMMMM

Shares of Nvidia and Snowflake are trading higher after announcing earnings after the close. Nvidia shares are trading up $3.60 or 2.56%. Shares of Snowflake are up $34.20 or 26.55%. A snapshot of the market 6 minutes into the open is showing

• Dow industrial average -7.22 points or -0.02% at 43401.25
• S&P index -3.32 points or -0.06% at 5913.79.
• NASDAQ index -35.33 points or -0.19% at 18930.81.
• Russell 2000 up 10.43 points or 0.45% at 2335.97.

A summary of some of the large caps shows:

• Meta, -1.09%
• Amazon -0.84%
• Microsoft -0.15%
• Google -3.87%
• Apple -0.75%
• Tesla -0.32%

Shares of Nvidia are now trading up 0.80%

This is the look of the first 10-15 minutes of Nasdaq index:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US initial jobless claims came in stronger than expectations, but continuing claims were higher. The Philadelphia Fed business index fell more than expected of -5.5 versus 8.0 estimate.

Yields in the US have moved modestly lower with the two year now down -0.8 basis points and the tenure down -1.6 basis points.

In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying a higher opening:

• Dow industrial average +136 points
• S&P index up 22.14 points
• NASDAQ index up 94.65 points

Nvidia shares are up $2.06 or 1.45% in premarket trading after being lower earlier today.

Bitcoin is trading up $3300 at $97,661 after a reaching a new all-time high price at $98,367. The price of bitcoin moved above 90,000 on November 12.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 22/11/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior month Year on year -1.0%
• PPI MoM 1 .2% versus -0.8% last month
• PPI YoY 1.1% versus -1.0% last month
• Raw material price MoM was 3.8% versus -3.2% last month
• Raw material prices YoY -2.8% versus -8.8% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 10.3
• Philly Fed Business index -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate
• 6 month index 56.6 versus 36.7 last month
• Capital expenditures 24.9 versus 23.5 last month
• employment 8.6 versus -2.2 last month.
• Prices paid 26.6 versus 29.7 last month.
• New orders 8.9 versus 14.2 last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior week 217K (revised to 219K)
• Initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate
• 4-week moving average initial jobless claims 217K vs 221K prior
• Continuing Claims 1.908M vs 1.873M estimate
• Prior week of continuing claims 1.873M (revised to 1.872M)
• 4-week moving average of continueing claims 1.879M vs 1.874M prior

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 9 were in California (+5,906), New Jersey (+2,439),
New York (+2,327), Minnesota (+1,889), and Texas (+1,275), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,072),
Kansas (-599), Wisconsin (-436), Ohio (-305), and North Dakota (-284).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.