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The US major stock indices are closing lower and near the lows for the day.

The final numbers are showing :

• Dow industrial Average fell -91.46 points or -0.22% at 42141.60
• S&P Index fell -19.18 or -0.33% at 5813.74
• Nasdaq index is closing down -10.4.82 points ro -0.56% at 18607.93. Yesterday the price closed at a record close.

The small cap Russell 2000 is closing down -5.05 points or -0.23% at 2233.03

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US Q3 advance GDP +2.8% vs +3.0% expected
• Core PCE Advanced for Q3 comes in at 2.2% vs 2.1% estimate
• US October ADP employment +233K vs +114K expected
• US pending home sales for September +7.4% versus 1.0% estimate
• OPEC+ could delay oil production hike scheduled for December by one month or more
• US German prelim HICP 2.4% vs 2.1% expected
• ECB’s Schnabel: Disinflation remains on track, but inflation fight is not yet won
• More from ECBs Schnabel: We expect wage growth remains high this year and rather bumpy

Markets:

• Gold up $12 to record $2786
• US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.28%
• S&P 500 down 0.3%
• WTI crude oil up $1.68 to $68.89
• EUR leads, GBP lags

It was a lively day of news flow but it’s tough to tie it back to price action. The US dollar jumped 35 pips on the ADP numbers and held the gains after GDP, in large part due to strong consumer spending numbers in the GDP data. There were also indications that tomorrow’s PCE report could be a tad hot on inflation, or at least with a slight upward revision to the August number.

The dollar faded later as yields fell and tech stocks sagged, led by a 10% drop in AMD shares that hurt broader chipmakers. That was balanced somewhat by the 3.5% rise in Alphabet shares.

Later in the day, yields rebounded into positive territory and that helped to lift the dollar. That move might have also been helped along by Middle East headlines or a Quinnipiac poll showing Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania, and improving from the prior poll.

Oil jumped on talk of an OPEC delay but it was a choppy move. Ultimately it helped the Canadian dollar though as it rebounded from the lows of the year.

The pound was volatile on the budget measures and crosscurrents with the US dollar. Initially the were was a sigh of relief in GBP as there were no big surprise tax measures but later the mood soured and GBP fell to 1.2969, with EUR/GBP up 60 pips to 0.8374 in a solid rally to a two-week high.

Overall, the lack of conviction on moves following data makes sense as market participants hunker down for the election. There are some moves coming on polls and Trump trades are doing well but given all the election surprises in the past couple decades, it’s not surprising that most want to wait it out, something that will guarantee big moves the day after the vote.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

After the close today the following will announce earnings:

• Microsoft (MSFT)
• Meta (META)
• Coinbase (COIN)
• Robinhood (HOOD)
• Etsy (ETSY)
• Roku (ROKU)
• Carvana (CVNA)
• Starbucks (SBUX)

A look at the expectations for EPS and revenues:

• Microsoft: Estimate EPS $3.10 on revenues of $64.569 billion. That compares to $2.99 on $56.517 billion last year. Shares are trading up $2.70 or 0.63% at $434.66.
• Meta Platforms: EPS $5.22 on revenues of $40.213 billion. That compares to $4.39 on revenues of $34.146 billion last year. Shares are trading up $1.02 or 0.19% at $594.30.
• Coinbase: EPS $0.45 on revenues of $1.261 billion. That compares to -1 cent on revenues of $674.14 million last year. Shares are trading at $214.14 or -2.51%
• Robinhood: EPS $0.18 on revenue of $660.527 million. That compares to -9 cents on revenues of $467.0 million last year. Shares are trading up $0.34 or 1.21% had $28.38.
• Etsy: EPS $0.52 on revenues of $652.47 million. That compares to $0.64 on $636.20M last year. Shares are trading up $0.65 or 1.31% at $48.10.
• Roku: EPS $-0.32 on revenues of $1.016 billion. That compares to $-2.33 on $912.01 million last year. Shares are trading up $1.79 or 2.34% at $78.19.
• Caravana: EPS $0.30 on revenues of $3.47 billion. That compares to $3.60 on revenues of $2.773 billion last year. Shares are trading up $1.48 or 0.69% at $210.19.
• Starbucks: EPS 86 cents on revenues of $9.19 billion. That compares to 196 cents on revenues of $9.374 billion last year. Shares are trading down $0.19 or -0.20% at $97.20

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Israeli public broadcaster Kan has publishes a ceasefire proposal dated Oct 26, and that comes shortly after Lebanon’s PM said there could be a ceasefire in “hours or days”.

• Calls for Israel and Lebanon to implement UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559
• Lebanese armed forces will monitor and enforce the resolution
• Full implementation will be finalized during 60-day ceasefire
• Israel will withdraw forces from Lebanon within 7 days of ceasefire
• Lebanese forces will deploy during ceasefire

This sounds legit.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day across the curve on a small jump in the past 15 minutes. US 10s are now up 1 bps on the day to 4.28% after falling as low as 4.20% earlier.

It’s not clear what the catalyst is because there are conflicting Middle East reports with Lebanon’s PM says they’re hoping for a ceasefire within hours or days and another saying Iran will launch an attack on Israel before the US election.

In any case, there has been a quick move higher in the US dollar in the range of 10-20 pips across the board.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

HSBC anticipates a knee-jerk rally in EUR/USD if Kamala Harris wins the US election, driven by initial USD weakness. However, they expect this rally to be temporary, with the pair likely resuming a downward trajectory as monetary policy differences reassert influence.

Key Points:

• A Harris victory is likely to cause a short-term EUR/USD rally, reflecting initial market relief and USD retreat.
• The rally may lack durability, as a Harris presidency, especially with a divided Congress, would be seen as maintaining the status quo.
• HSBC expects that after the initial rally, factors like relative growth and monetary policy divergence will favor the USD, resuming downward pressure on EUR/USD.
• Following October’s sharp drop in EUR/USD, any post-election decline would likely be gradual rather than steep.

Conclusion:

HSBC foresees a temporary boost in EUR/USD on a Harris win, but with limited long-term impact. After an initial spike, they expect relative monetary policies and growth outlooks to favor the USD, leading to a slow and steady decline in EUR/USD rather than an abrupt fall.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today was a busy day of economic data that featured a strong ADP jobs report and a softer-than-expected GDP report that contained some very strong details. We also got a blockbuster pending home sales report.

Normally that combination would lead to some US dollar strength but that hasn’t been the case today. Instead, we’re seeing a backup in the dollar against the euro and a mixed picture elsewhere. Part of that was a hotter German CPI report and decent European growth data but the moves also reflect a market that’s hesitant to trade on economic data.

I mean, what’s the rush to buy on a GDP, inflation or jobs report when Tuesday’s election could upend the economy’s trajectory. Certainly, the market has been leaning towards Trump but given the series of US election surprises this century, I’d hardly imagine that real money is wading in.

So we wait and take these moves in stride as the ebb and flow of markets.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America forecasts a 100k increase in October nonfarm payrolls, affected by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike, with average hourly earnings growth rising to 0.5% m/m. Despite potential data distortions, BofA expects the Fed to proceed with a 25bps cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Key Points:

• Nonfarm payrolls projected to increase by 100k, down from 254k in September; hurricane and strike effects likely reduced job gains and hours worked.
• Average hourly earnings growth is expected to rise to 0.5% m/m, partly due to fewer hours worked from weather-related disruptions.
• Unemployment rate forecasted to tick up to 4.2%, partly reflecting hurricane impacts.
• BofA maintains a base case of a 25bps Fed cut in November, with recent Fed communication and market pricing (90%+ chance) supporting this outlook.
• Even with a potential upside surprise in jobs data, BofA believes the Fed will proceed with the rate cut due to the high policy rate level near 5%.

Conclusion:

BofA anticipates a “noisy” October jobs report, with payroll gains tempered by temporary factors. However, the Fed appears set for a 25bps cut next week, aligning with market expectations and recent Fed guidance, regardless of minor fluctuations in labor data.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US posted another impressive GDP report today, though slightly less than expected. Growth of 2.8% fell short of the 3.0% consensus but the details in this report were impressive, with consumer spending offsetting a drag from net trade.

The important takeaway from CIBC is that the economy isn’t overheating – they say “3% is the new 2%,” suggesting the economy’s potential growth rate has improved on better productivity. They point to cooling inflation and labor markets despite strong growth for the past two years as evidence.

The bank notes that wealthy millennials are helping drive consumption, with their net worth more than doubling since late 2019. Equipment investment was strong across the board, likely helped by lower long-term rates.

“Even with the labor market continuing to cool, consumption growth may not necessarily tail off dramatically. The
role of asset income and spend-happy Millennials are a structural tailwind to consumer spending,” CIBC writes, noting that could be offset by a crackdown on immigration and on net that should lead to slightly slower consumption.

The bottom line here is that GDP growth is very healthy and economy is operating not far from its newly expanded
capacity. The Fed’s attention will still be on the labor market and we expect some gap between GDP and the jobs
market to continue opening up. The strong improvement in productivity mean firms don’t need to expand their
workforces as much, and output can grow at a healthy pace with the help of past investments in technologies that
continue to pay-off. That dynamic will continue to boost consumption indirectly through the optimism in the equity
market. It’s a complicated and messy, but overall very nice problem to have for the Fed. While the diagnosis of the
economy has changed with upward surprises and revisions, the recipe for the Fed is the about the same. Gradual rate
reductions are expected to keep the music going while trying to figure out where the neutral rate really is

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

After the UK budget and OBR assessment:

• Markets reflect and 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November versus 92% chance earlier
• Markets national and 48% chance of a further 25 basis point cut in December versus 63% earlier today

10 year yields are now up 3.6 basis points at 4.353%. The two year yield is up 6.3 basis points after 4.322%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the best trading experience to our clients, we want to inform you there will be an adjustment in the trading schedule due to the US entering Daylight Saving on Sunday, 03 November 2024.

While trading, most products will remain unaffected; however, there will be a change in the trading hours of some products.

MT4/5:

Fx & Precious Metals:

Indices:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Bonds:

Shares:

cTrader:

For any further assistance, please contact our Support Team.

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post US Daylight Saving: Trading Schedule 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The weekly inventory data from the EIA shows:

• crude oil inventories -0.515M vs. 2.300M estimate
• Gasoline inventories -2.707M vs 0.600M estimate
• Distillates inventories -0.977M vs -1.595M estimate
• Cushing 0.681M vs -0.346M last week
• Crude production 13.5 million barrels versus 13.5 million barrels previously.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

Crude oil is trading at $68.19 ahead of the release.

The current prices trading at $68.32 after the report

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.