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Australian terms of trade data for Q3 2024

Australia Import Price Index Q3 -1.4% q/q

• expected -0.3%, prior +1.0%

& Export Price Index -4.3% q/q

• expected –4.0%, prior –5.9%

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand October 2024 Business Survey, showing improvement.

Business confidence 65.7%

• prior 60.9

Activity outlook 45.9%

• prior 45.3

The table below is from the ANZ report. Mixed results but not as bleak as it was just a few months ago. Retailing showing weak results.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Not shown in the screenshot,

• large retailer sales +2% vs. +5% prior
• m/m retail sales -2.3% vs. prior +0.8%

Disappointing results vs. the more encouraging industrial output data.

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Still to come today:

• Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a Hike
• Preview – Bank of Japan meeting this week – no change to policy expected
• Japanese Inflation Data Impact on USD/JPY; BoJ Meeting Outlook

The Bank of Japan don’t have a set time for publishing their decision. Its usually in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window:

• 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will follow with a press conference, and for that we do have a time, 0630 GMT

• 0230 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Better than expected, a welcome development for Japanese industry.

Japanese manufacturers’ outlooks:

• see October output +8.3% m/m (prior forecast +6.1%)
• see November -3.7% m/m

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Still to come today:

• Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a Hike
• Preview – Bank of Japan meeting this week – no change to policy expected
• Japanese Inflation Data Impact on USD/JPY; BoJ Meeting Outlook

The Bank of Japan don’t have a set time for publishing their decision. Its usually in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window:

• 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will follow with a press conference, and for that we do have a time, 0630 GMT

• 0230 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Barclays: What We Expect from the US October Jobs Report on Friday

Synopsis:

Barclays forecasts a deceleration in October’s nonfarm payrolls to 125k, down from September’s 254k, with employment impacted by the Boeing strike and recent hurricanes. Wage growth is expected to remain steady, while the unemployment rate may tick up due to temporary disruptions.

Key Points:

• Nonfarm payrolls projected to rise by 125k, with private payrolls increasing by 100k as labor disruptions impact the data.
• Average hourly earnings growth anticipated at 0.4% m/m (4.1% y/y), with the workweek expected to decline slightly to 34.1 hours.
• Unemployment rate forecasted to increase to 4.2%, partly due to temporary effects from strikes and hurricanes.

Conclusion:

Barclays expects October’s jobs report to reflect temporary slowdowns from external factors, with a moderate payroll increase and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. Despite these impacts, wage growth remains steady, indicating underlying resilience in the labor market.

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Coming up on Friday:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile.

Reports via Yonhap and the Japanese Coast Guard.

NK normally sent these into the East Sea (Sea of Japan).

Stay tuned for more info as it comes in

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This table is via a tweet from the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos – great stuff!

The data point is due on Thursday morning 8.30 am US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A heads up via a Goldman Sachs derivatives research note.

Citing options markets, GS says it’ll be a volatile election day (November 5):

• SPX options pricing implies a plus/minus 2.1% move on the day
• options on the top 25 macro ETFs which imply an average move of +/- 5.3% for U.S. elections when compared to the past realized moves of ~+/-2.8% during the 2016 and 2020 elections
• options market implies a move of more than 7% for ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO)

Two of the funds with the highest implied volatility are linked to China:

• both Dems and Reps have an aggressive posture toward China
• but Trump’s tariff proposal could pose a more sizeable threat

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Yeah, like the sub heading says, wait until after Tuesday’s close and then it’s a 6 hour wait until Tokyo opens (US changes off daylight saving this weekend so maybe its 5 or 7 hours, whatever – strap in for wild moves!)

I’m ready!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Starbucks Corp (SBUX)

  • EPS: $0.80 (missed expectations of $1.03)
  • Revenue: $9.07 billion (missed expectations of $9.38 billion)
  • FY25 guidance suspended due to CEO transition and current state of business.
  • Shares are trading down -1.28%
• Coinbase Global (COIN) Q3 2024
  • EPS: Reported $0.43 (met expectations of $0.43)
  • Revenue: $1.20 billion (missed expectations of $1.25 billion)
  • Shares are trading down -6.0%

• Aflac Inc (AFL)

  • EPS: $2.16 (beat expectations of $1.68)
  • Revenue: $2.90 billion (missed expectations of $4.42 billion)
  • Shares are trading down -1.54%

• eBay Inc (EBAY)

  • EPS: $1.19 (met expectations of $1.18)
  • Revenue: $2.6 billion (beat expectations of $2.55 billion)
  • Shares are trading down -9.66%

• Meta Platforms Inc (META)

  • EPS: $6.03 (beat expectations of $5.24)
  • Revenue: $40.5 billion (beat expectations of $40.27 billion)
  • Key details:
    • Advertising revenue: $39.89 billion (expected $39.71 billion)
    • Family of Apps revenue: $40.32 billion (expected $39.98 billion)
    • Expects Q4 total revenue between $45 billion and $48 billion.
    • Shares are trading down -2.92%

• Amgen Inc (AMGN)

  • EPS: $5.58 (beat expectations of $5.11)
  • Revenue: $8.50 billion (beat expectations of $8.52 billion)
  • Shares are trading down -0.29%

• Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)

  • EPS: $83.89 (beat expectations of $77.35)
  • Revenue: $7.99 billion (beat expectations of $7.63 billion)
  • Shares area trading up 4.62%

• Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

  • EPS: $3.30 (beat expectations of $3.10)
  • Revenue: $65.6 billion (beat expectations of $64.51 billion)
  • Key details:
    • Microsoft Cloud revenue: $38 billion (expected $37.89 billion)
    • Intelligent Cloud revenue: $24.1 billion (expected $23.68 billion)
    • Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-FX: +34%
  • Shares are trading up 0.71%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• EPS $6.03 versus expected $5.24
• Revenues: $40.59B versus $40.279B estimate
• Capital expenditures estimate $38 billion – $40 billion
• Advertising revenue $39.89 billion versus expected $39.71 billion

Guidance:

• Estimate $45 billion – $48 billion

shares of meta are trading down 1.80% at $581.02

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Microsoft earnings for the quarter are better than expectations:

• EPS $3.30 versus $3.10 expected
• Revenues 65.6 pain dollars explained dollars versus $64.519
• Microsoft cloud revenues $38.9 million versus expected $38.19
• Azure and other cloud services up 34%

Microsoft shares are trading up 2.18% at $442.51.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.