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Germany September import price index -0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected
Germany September import price index -0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected

Germany September import price index -0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected

407773   October 31, 2024 14:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

  • Prior -0.4%

Weaker energy prices were the main cause for the drag for the month of September. If you strip that out, import prices were actually unchanged compared to August. So, that’s something worth noting.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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US futures not impressed by big tech earnings so far
US futures not impressed by big tech earnings so far

US futures not impressed by big tech earnings so far

407772   October 31, 2024 12:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The losses so far today are largely led by tech, with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% currently. It comes despite Meta and Microsoft reporting earnings beat after the close, with Greg providing a comprehensive rundown of it all here.

Is it a case of month-end timing? Or perhaps investors weren’t all too happy with the surging costs into the AI space? Well, the latter has been a slight ongoing concern but big tech firms have the profits to back that up for now at least.

In the case of Meta, there was one downside stemming from its VR division i.e. Reality Labs. That particular division posted some $270 million in losses in Q3, so that might be part of the reason for concern.

But perhaps warning of a “significant acceleration” in AI-related expenditure is not something that investors would like to hear too.

Microsoft also added to that in saying they won’t be able to address AI capacity constraints until the second half of its fiscal year (which began in July). And they have already been piling on costs into the AI space with capital expenditure rising by another 5% to roughly $20 billion in the quarter.

Besides that, Microsoft is also warning of a slower growth forecast of its cloud business, Azure.

So, the details aren’t quite as rosy as what the numbers might suggest. But as is the case before, investors have the tendency to look past all of this in due time. As long as earnings continue to shine, they might be willing enough to keep turning a blind eye to this in the long haul.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Trade Cable on Non-Farms and the US Election

Trade Cable on Non-Farms and the US Election

407770   October 31, 2024 12:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

Traders are bracing for a lively end to an already busy week in the financial markets. The key Non-Farm Payrolls data is set to be released in the final trading session of the week, and it has the potential to move markets even more than it typically does. Jobs data has been a clear focal point for the Federal Reserve at recent meetings, and this release comes just days ahead of their latest session. Any major surprise from the expected 108k increase could send markets into a fresh rally. Average Hourly Earnings (expected +0.3%) and the Unemployment Rate (expected 4.1%) are due at the same time, but the main focus will be on the headline number, which saw a massive upside surprise last month, leading to a 4%+ rally in the dollar.

Adding a significant twist to this week’s update is the upcoming U.S. election, which could overshadow the impact of key data as investors shift their focus to next week’s results. Currently, markets are pricing in a 62% chance of a Trump victory. Should this forecast prove accurate, especially with control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, we could see further dollar strength as Republican policies would face fewer hurdles. Conversely, if Kamala Harris gains momentum in the polls, expect the dollar to retreat somewhat, though Democratic policies could also introduce inflationary pressures into the U.S. economy over the long term.

Cable has been trading in alignment with the dollar’s performance in recent sessions and sits attractively on the daily charts for traders looking to capitalize on potential dollar moves from both Non-Farm data and longer-term election outcomes. Recently, it has retreated from annual highs in line with a stronger dollar and now rests on strong, long-term support levels. Stronger U.S. job numbers combined with a Trump victory could see the pair break through these levels, pushing it toward annual lows in short order. Conversely, weaker job numbers and/or a Democratic victory could lead to dollar selling, allowing Cable to rally back into recent ranges and potentially push toward the annual high. Many possible scenarios lie ahead, and if key events align, we could see the beginning of fresh trends for longer-term movements.

Resistance 2: 1.3434 – 2024 High

Resistance 1: 1.3396 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.2904 – October Low

Support 2: 1.2807 – 200 Day Moving Average

The post Trade Cable on Non-Farms and the US Election first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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Inflation data remains in focus in Europe today
Inflation data remains in focus in Europe today

Inflation data remains in focus in Europe today

407769   October 31, 2024 11:30   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Major currencies are little changed for the most part with only the Japanese yen being the slight mover in the handover from Asia to Europe. It comes after the BOJ policy decision, in which the central bank left rates unchanged as expected.

USD/JPY caught a whipsaw on the decision but is looking to settle slightly lower now. The pair is down 0.4% to 152.85 and starting to creep below its 100-hour moving average of 152.97 currently. That will see buyers lose near-term control if the break below the key level holds. In the bigger picture, it seems that buyers are running into some exhaustion in testing a key Fib retracement level:

That said, price is still comfortably holding above the 200-day moving average (blue line) of 151.50 for now.

Looking to European trading, the euro will remain in focus as we will have more inflation data on the cards. In case you missed the ones yesterday:

The general undertone is that there is an upside tick to price pressures in October. And that should be reflected in the French and Italian readings as well.

The key spot to watch though will be the Eurozone core annual inflation reading. While headline prices are seen nudging higher, the estimate here is that core prices will ease further to 2.6% – down from 2.7% in September.

I would warn though that personally, I’m not too convinced by the estimate. The Spanish and German figures yesterday both showed an uptick in core prices as well and that is something to be wary about. It may be one month’s worth of reading for now but it is evident that there is a bump in the road on the disinflation process.

Traders are now pricing in ~91% odds of a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB for December and that is down from being fully priced in before yesterday. So, that might offer some upside risks for the euro in the sessions ahead.

0700 GMT – Germany September retail sales data0700 GMT – Germany September import price index0745 GMT – France October preliminary CPI figures1000 GMT – Italy October preliminary CPI figures1000 GMT – Eurozone October preliminary CPI figures1130 GMT – US October Challenger job cuts, layoffs

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expected

407768   October 31, 2024 11:00   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Major
FX rates once again tracked subdued ranges in Asia. USD/JPY popped to
above 153.50 for a time but there was no follow through. Traders
awaited the Bank of Japan policy statement (I’ll come back to
this).

News
flow was light, but we did have data from Japan, New Zealand,
Australia, and China.

On
the central bank front, apart from the BoJ, were comments from Bank
of Canada Governor Macklem, who spoke to a Commons committee with the
same message he delivered to a Senate committee on Tuesday. Macklem
says the Bank is retaining optionality on hefty rate cuts if needed:

  • “We’ve
    demonstrated we’re prepared to do a 50-basis-points cut if we think
    that’s appropriate. And if we think it’s appropriate to do it
    again, we’ll do it again.”

From
Japan were:

  • September
    preliminary industrial production data, better than expected, and
  • September
    retail sales, which disappointingly missed estimates

New
Zealand October business data (confidence and activity) improved a
little from September

From
Australia we had plenty of data, which didn’t move AUD too much at
all:

  • private
    sector credit rose by 0.5% in September, in-line with expectations,
    and in a broad-based way
  • retail
    sales came in weaker than expected in September
  • building
    approvals continued to gain

From
China we had National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official PMIs, both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing improved, albeit a small increase
only. The manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row and into
expansion for the first time in six months.

The
Bank of Japan maintained its short term interest rate target at
0.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. In its report the Bank
made specific mention of FX.

USD/JPY
dribbled a little lower in the immediate aftermath but soon dropped
away more quickly down towards 153.00.

North Korea test fired an ICBM, setting new records:

  • it flew at an altitude over 7,000km, covered a range of 1,000km and had the longest flight time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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North Korea says its ICBM test set new records
North Korea says its ICBM test set new records

North Korea says its ICBM test set new records

407767   October 31, 2024 10:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Yen seems to be drawing strength from this ….

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected
Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

407766   October 31, 2024 10:00   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Bank of Japan statement, October 31 2024.

more to come

Background to this is here:

Still to come is Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference at 0630 GMT, 0230 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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China’s six major national banks will start to implement a new mortgage pricing mechanism.
China’s six major national banks will start to implement a new mortgage pricing mechanism.

China’s six major national banks will start to implement a new mortgage pricing mechanism.

407765   October 31, 2024 09:00   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Starting Friday, China’s six largest national banks will introduce a new pricing system for existing mortgage rates.

Previously, mortgage rate adjustments could only occur once a year, but now homebuyers have more flexibility. They can ask banks to adjust the repricing period to either three or six months whenever they choose or stick with the one-year option.

At the margin this is another boost for the housing sector. At the margin.

Earlier in the month mortgage rates were cut:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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China official PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0)
China official PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0)

China official PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0)

407764   October 31, 2024 08:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, October 2024 PMIs

Manufacturing 50.1, first time in expansion for six months

  • expected 50.0, prior 49.8

Non manufacturing 50.2

  • expected 50.4, prior 50.0

Composite is 50.8

  • prior 50.4

Stimulus announcements from China hit from late September and continued right through October. Stimulus announcement should continue once the People’s Congress rubber stamps a few more:

-*//*-

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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General Market Analysis – 31/10/24
General Market Analysis – 31/10/24

General Market Analysis – 31/10/24

407763   October 31, 2024 08:00   ICMarkets   Market News  

US Stocks Drift Lower After Strong Data – Nasdaq Down 0.5%

US stock markets edged lower from record highs yesterday as investors digested a robust jobs report, fresh earnings updates from the tech sector, and looked ahead to the approaching US election. The Nasdaq slid 0.52% on the day, followed by the S&P and Dow, which closed down 0.27% and 0.15% respectively. US Treasury yields showed mixed movement, but remained near multi-month highs, with the 2-year yield up 3.5 basis points at 4.154% and the 10-year down 1 basis point to 4.264%. The dollar softened, aided by stronger-than-expected German CPI data, which pushed the Euro higher; the DXY edged down 0.16% to 104.07. Meanwhile, oil prices surged over 2% following an unexpected drop in US stockpiles, with Brent rising 2.01% to $72.55 and WTI climbing 2.08% to $68.61. Gold hit another record high, gaining 0.5% on the day to close at $2,788.36.

Dollar in Focus Ahead of Key Data and US Election

The US dollar has experienced a striking recovery over the past few weeks, with the DXY gaining over 4%. Traders are now evaluating how much further the dollar could rise, with pivotal data due in the coming days, alongside an imminent election result and an expected Fed rate decision next week. While all these factors will influence the dollar, the election result may have the most significant impact in the longer term. Betting markets currently price a Trump victory at 62%, with a “clean sweep” potentially accelerating the dollar’s upward trend. However, if Kamala Harris starts to make up ground, we may see the DXY retreat to recent ranges, with short-term support around 103.85, marked by the 200-day moving average.

Another Busy Day for Traders Ahead

Traders face a packed schedule today as the macroeconomic event calendar goes into overdrive. The Asian session has its busiest day of the week, with Australian retail sales data, Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI updates, and the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting later in the day. The European session remains relatively quiet, but the US session promises a burst of activity. Key indicators include the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, along with the Employment Cost Index and weekly unemployment claims. Any surprises could lead to substantial market moves, with the Chicago PMI data and earnings reports from tech giants Amazon and Apple to follow later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 31/10/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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Australia retail sales (September) +0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) & +0.5% q/q (prior -0.3%)
Australia retail sales (September) +0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) & +0.5% q/q (prior -0.3%)

Australia retail sales (September) +0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) & +0.5% q/q (prior -0.3%)

407762   October 31, 2024 07:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Australia retail sales data for both September and Q3, 2024.

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Australian September building permits +4.4% m/m (prior -6.1%)
Australian September building permits +4.4% m/m (prior -6.1%)

Australian September building permits +4.4% m/m (prior -6.1%)

407761   October 31, 2024 07:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Australian building permits, September 2024

Building Approvals +4.4%

  • expected +2.1%, prior –6.1%

*-*-*-*

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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