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It’s been a rather lackluster last few sessions in Europe in terms of headlines. But hey, things might take a different turn today. On the agenda, we do have PMI data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone to make up for it. That will at least keep things interesting especially if the data continues to surprise to the downside.

As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut by the ECB for December. The question now is whether we will see a 25 bps move or a 50 bps one. €STR futures are showing ~83% odds of a 25 bps move but personally, I’d pin those odds closer to 65% to 70% at this stage (as per the money market). The remainder are tied to a 50 bps move.

The PMI data will keep the euro in focus in the session ahead. Besides that, the spotlight for broader markets remains on bonds. Higher yields have been keeping investors fairly nervous in the last few days, with stocks taking some off the top. USD/JPY is also staying in focus as such, with the pair down slightly today by 0.3% to 152.25 for now.

0645 GMT – France October business confidence0715 GMT – France October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI0730 GMT – Germany October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI0800 GMT – Eurozone October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI0830 GMT – UK October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI1000 GMT – UK October CBI trends total orders

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The firm’s offer included a 35% pay rise over four years.

IAM union members voted to reject the deal and stay on strike.

Info comes via BBC, ungated. Check out that link for more.

The strike has implications for work at suppliers. Staff layoffs and what have you.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Cleveland President Beth Hammack
• USD/JPY has (eventually) fallen following some verbal intervention from Japanese officials
• European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks again on Thursday
• Japan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX market
• Japan official says watching for speculative FX moves
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Catherine Mann speaking Thursday
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1286 (vs. estimate at 7.1284)
• Heightening chance China now faces the prospect of a Japanese-style lost economic decade
• Bank of Korea official says IT exports slowing, and many uncertainties over exports
• Japan flash PMIs (October): Manufacturing 49.0 (prior 49.7) Services 49.3 (prior 49.6)
• Chinese state media reports that Apple (AAPL) to increase investment in China
• Morgan Stanley not sounding downbeat for S&P 500 in 2025
• UK car output fell for the seventh consecutive month in September
• South Korean Q3 GDP comes in well under estimates: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected)
• USD/JPY is quiet – too quiet?
• UBS maintains its view on the USD: “Unattractive”. Cite 3 reasons to sell rallies
• Australian flash October manufacturing PMI 46.6 (September was 46.7)
• 3 reasons the Bank of Canada cut by 50bp points (ditto for the RBNZ)
• Rabobank analysts see downside risks to Euro forecasts
• US stocks closed lower on the day but off their lows levels
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Oct: Dollar moves higher but Beige Book tempers gains
• BRICS inventor says as a group BRICS has achieved very little over the past 15 years
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 24 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Its
was a subdued sort of session for major FX rates, characterised by a
minor offer for the USD. AUD & NZD both added a few points, as
did EUR and GBP.

After
the USD/JPY surge in H1 of this week, topping above 153.00 on
Wednesday near a 3-month high, the pair drifted a little lower on the
session here.

We
had ineffectual intervention-type remarks from Japan’s Deputy Chief
Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki. These were followed up a little
later by Finance
Minister Katsunobu Kato. Kato’s
efforts were a little more blunt, using language including
“one-sided, rapid” moves. This
language is an escalation of the usual rhetoric and is taken to mean
a bit more seriousness from authorities.

USD/JPY
barely responded, dribbling off a few tics before (eventually)
dropping a little more noticeably. Lows have been just under 152.40,
so far. Not much of a drop really.

News
and data flow otherwise was very slow. We had preliminary October
PMIs from Australia and Japan:

• Australia
  manufacturing PMI 0.1 lower than in September, Services up 0.1
• Japan’s
  manufacturing and non-manufacturing both dropped notably from September

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The remarks from Japan were nearly an hour ago, beginning with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki:

• Japan official says watching for speculative FX moves

Followed by more forthright comments from Kato:

• Japan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX market

USD/JPY did dip towards 152.60 and just beneath but its only just now shown much more of a response. Even this fall is small:

Oil has risen so that could be impacting also.

Still, a small yen move only. So far at least.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato

• Rapid moves seen in recent FX market
• No comment on FX levels intervention
• Desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals
• Closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgency
• there was no discussion on FX at today’s G20 meeting and I don’t expect any tomorrow

The reference to ‘rapid moves’ is a sign of escalating the rhetoric

—

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki has not shifted USD/JPY much at all with his comments:

• No comment on FX levels
• Desirable for
  currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals
• Closely watching FX
  moves with a sense of urgency
• Govt watching forex
  moves closely including for speculative moves

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I’m just reading through a piece from the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right/right-wing think tank based in Washington, D.C., that researches government, politics, economics, etc.

Its titled Gathering Clouds over the Chinese Economy (link is to the piece).

Not everyone is going to like it. Especially China. But, it’s a good summary of where we are at.

• Troubles are coming to the Chinese economy … now casting a dark cloud over the economic growth prospects for the world’s second largest economy and until recently the world’s main engine of economic growth.

AEI does add, on a brighter note:

• On the positive side, China’s economic woes could provide much needed inflation relief to the world economy especially in the form of lower international commodity prices in general and oil prices in particular.

I have to say, I’m not sure China throwing itself under the bus really has a bright side but I guess lower inflation will be helpful.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data from earlier is here:

• South Korean Q3 GDP comes in well under estimates: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected)

A Bank of Korea official with remarks:

• Growth in IT exports slowing
• Will need to examine
  whether there is change in growth trend for next economic forecasts
  in November
• There are many
  factors raising uncertainty over exports
• This year’s economic
  growth likely to be lower than 2.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Stock Markets Plunge – Nasdaq Drops 1.60%

All three major US indices fell in yesterday’s trading as uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election weighed heavily on the markets, with investors also looking ahead to key updates and a less dovish Federal Reserve. The Dow dropped by 0.95%, the S&P 500 by 0.92%, while declines in big tech stocks saw the Nasdaq tumble 1.60%. Treasury yields continued their upward trend, reaching levels not seen in three months, with the 2-year yield rising by 4.7 basis points to 4.084%, and the 10-year by 3.6 basis points to 4.242%. Oil prices fell in response to a stronger-than-expected US inventory report, with Brent down by 1.42% to $74.96, and WTI dropping 1.35% to $70.77. Gold, after its relentless rise, saw a 1.2% decline on the day, closing at $2,714.55 by the New York session’s end.

Stock Market Volatility Expected to Increase Ahead of US Election

Equity traders are preparing for heightened volatility in the lead-up to the US election, which is now only 12 days away. Investors are considering a variety of possible outcomes as the race tightens, with many expecting significant market movements depending on shifts in the political landscape. With all three major US indices currently trading near record highs, the stage is set for potential dramatic moves and headlines in the coming weeks. A clear Trump victory is widely anticipated to apply pressure on the US market, while a Harris win is seen as more favourable. However, post-election political manoeuvring adds complexity, and many agree this could only increase market volatility.

PMI Day Hits the Markets Today

A wave of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI figures is due across various trading sessions today, with investors closely watching the data for fresh insights into the health of global economies. Updates are expected from Australia, Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US, with particular attention on Eurozone figures after poor data last month weighed heavily on the currency. The US session will also feature the usual weekly unemployment claims, alongside New Home Sales data. Meanwhile, emerging markets players will be keeping an eye on the news wires for any final updates from the closing day of the BRICS summit.

The post General Market Analysis – 24/10/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for October 2024 for Japan

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Xinhua with the report:

• Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook says the firm to increase investment in China
• Keen to seize opportunities, contribute to high quality developments of industrial, supply chains

–

Xinhua is a Chinese Communist Party state media outlet.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Info comes via Reuters

UK car output fell for the seventh
consecutive month in September

• 20.6% decline y/y
• EV production fell 37% in September

Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) cite:

• factories wound down
  production of current models to retool for new zero-emission
  vehicles (ZEV)
• drop also
  partly due to last year’s strong performance, which was the best
  since 2020

• “As UK Automotive undergoes its most radical transformation
  in more than a century, short-term production declines were
  always anticipated, and they represent a temporary adjustment in
  exchange for long-term growth”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.