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The dollar cooled off alongside bond yields yesterday and that’s setting for a mixed mood towards the end of the week. Tech shares led gains in Wall Street but stock futures are looking more muted in the new day. As a whole this week though, equities are still down with a watchful eye on bond market developments.

In FX, we are seeing light changes on the day thus far. EUR/USD not even breaking a 8 pips range underscores the lack of appetite ahead of European trading. The antipodeans are slightly lower and that is bringing some attention to the charts at least. AUD/USD is taking a peek below its 200-day moving average of 0.6628, so that’s one to watch out for.

Looking to the session ahead, there won’t be much on the agenda to shake things up. The German Ifo business survey is the main highlight but it should just reaffirm more sluggish conditions in the economy to start Q4. As much as the outlook reading might show an improvement, it hasn’t been followed up by hard data over the last four to five months. So, take any beats there with a pinch of salt.

This just means we might be in for a quieter one with some light extensions to the daily ranges. As yields cool, the dollar is also taking a breather but we’ll see if there is appetite to chase anything again but only later in US trading.

0645 GMT – France October consumer confidence0800 GMT – Eurozone September M3 money supply0800 GMT – Germany October Ifo business climate index

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Many Chinese banks have cut mortgage rates today (cuts were announced earlier this month)
• Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaking on Friday
• US Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on Joe Rogan’s program
• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on Friday – Q&A
• Japan’s economy minister says the weak yen has various impacts on the economy
• PBOC conducts a 1 year MLF for 700bn yuan, rate unchanged at 2%
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1090 (vs. estimate at 7.1087)
• WSJ: Elon Musk has secretly been in regular contact with Russia’s Putin since late 2022
• Post US election relief rally for stocks is coming (Citi)
• Wall Street Journal poll puts Trump ahead of Harris, 47 to 45
• Japanese Inflation Data Impact on USD/JPY; BoJ Meeting Outlook
• Japan September PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.6% y/y (expected 2.7%)
• Tokyo area October inflation data: Headline 1.8% y/y (prior 2.2%)
• Japan election this weekend, LDP might lose out, need support from other parties to govern
• UK October consumer confidence -21.0 (expected -21.0)
• Yen intervention official Mimura says fin min Kato met with US TreasSec Yellen on Thursday
• Weekend speech coming up from Bank of England Governor Bailey – Saturday US time
• RBC analysts anticipate another 50bp rate cut in December from the Bank of Canada
• Bank of Canada is out of touch, “didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy”
• 4 reasons US equites are nervous
• UK PM Starmer: Brits who get income from shares, property don’t count as ‘working people’
• New Zealand October consumer confidence -4.1% m/m to 91.2 (prior 95.1)
• Potential impact of Japan and US Elections on BoJ intervention, and monetary policy stance
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Initial jobless claims surprise to the downside
• Japan election weekend – if the yen weakens after, the BOJ could step in with intervention
• US stock indices close next for the fourth consecutive day
• The EURUSD buyers are taking back some control from the sellers.
• Trade ideas thread – Friday, 25 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Late
in the US afternoon (really late) Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice
Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura crossed the
newswires indicating that finance minister Kato met US Treasury
Secretary Yellen on Thursday. FX was one topic of discussion. I noted
at the time that earlier this year, when USD/JPY was surging up
towards 160 Yellen met with the prior set of officials from the
Ministry of Finance. Yellen was very cold on the idea of any US
participation to support the yen.

Mimiura added some ‘hot button’
intervention remarks (see bullet above), in brief:

• have
  recently seen one-sided, sharp fx moves
• vigilant
  to FX moves including those driven by speculation

USD/JPY
barely moved on all this.

Tokyo
area inflation data was published a little later, with all three main
measures coming in under the Bank of Japan 2% target:

• Headline
  1.8% (down from 2.2% in September), under
  2% for the first time in 5 months.
• Core
  (i.e. excluding food) 1.8% (from 2.0% in September)
• Core-core
  (i.e. excluding food and energy, this is closest to the US ‘core’
  inflation definition) 1.8% (from 1.6% in September)

A
little later we had ‘services PPI’ for September, in at 2.6%
(from 2.7% in the prior month).

I’m
not convinced that lower CPI will stop the Bank of Japan from hiking
rates, they seem to be intent on doing so. The Bank meet next week
(30th
and 31st)
but are expected to remain on hold with a rate hike viewed as more
likely at the December or January meeting. Having said this, the yen
was sold a little on the data. USD/JPY popped to around 152.10 before
slipping back down to lows back under 151.80. Its around 151.85 or so
as I write.

We
had mild verbal intervention remarks from Japan’s economy minister.

From
China today was a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) injection that
did not fully offset the maturing amount. The rate on the new funds
made available was unchanged at 2%. China’s
mortgage rate cuts also came into effect today. More in the points
above.

Over
this coming weekend Japan goes to the polls for its general election.
The ruling LDP is expected to lose seats, but still be able to form
coalition government. Again, more in the points above.

Major
FX traded very small ranges, as did oil. Gold lost a little ground

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 October 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

After spiking higher over the last couple of weeks due to hurricane-related incidents in the Gulf of Mexico, unemployment claims eased from 242K to 227K, lower than the estimate of 243K, while the 4-week average now stands at 239K. This drop in claims seems to suggest that the worse from the above-mentioned incidents have been contained thus far.

Meanwhile, the flash readings for the U.S. Composite PMI showed business activity edging high in October, rising marginally from 54.0 to 54.3 in October. Robust output and sales growth were reported while selling prices rose at the slowest pace since May 2020. Once again, growth was driven solely by the service sector as manufacturing output contracted for a third successive month. 

The dollar index (DXY) hovered around 104.20 following the data releases at the beginning of the U.S. trading hours before selling pressures increased overnight causing it to drop towards the 104-level by the end of this session. After hitting a high of 104.57 on Wednesday, the dollar bulls are taking a breather.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Tokyo Core CPI eased from 2.0% in the previous month to 1.8% YoY in October. Although the result was slightly higher than the forecast of 1.7%, it marked the lowest reading since April. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in Japan, it could cause the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move cautiously with regards to another rate hike. This softer core reading lifted USD/JPY above 152 as Asian markets came online.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Following a surge of 9.8% in orders in July, new orders for durable goods were flat in August pointing to weak conditions surrounding manufacturing activity. September’s forecast of a 1.1% decline highlights the ongoing weakness for this sector and a deeper contraction could stem the current appreciation of the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range was reduced by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00% on 18th September in an 11 to 1 vote with Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, preferring to cut rates by a smaller amount.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 6 to 7 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Durable Goods Orders (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Following a surge of 9.8% in orders in July, new orders for durable goods were flat in August pointing to weak conditions surrounding manufacturing activity. September’s forecast of a 1.1% decline highlights the ongoing weakness for this sector and a deeper contraction could stem the current appreciation of the dollar later today – a result that would lift gold prices even higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie fell to an overnight low of 0.6621 before retracing higher by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was floating around 0.6630 as Asian markets came online but it could slide lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6590

Resistance: 0.6660

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 24th September, marking the seventh consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it is still some way above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
• The trimmed-mean CPI was 3.9% YoY in the June quarter, broadly as forecast in the May Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) while headline inflation declined in July as measured by the monthly CPI indicator.
• Headline inflation is expected to fall further temporarily but current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026.
• GDP data for the June quarter have confirmed that growth has been weak but growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, remained more resilient.
• Broader indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, despite some signs of gradual easing while wage pressures have eased somewhat.
• Data since then have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out while agreeing that policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi is one of the weakest currencies this week as it dropped to an overnight low of 0.6001. Overhead pressures remain for this currency pair and it hovered around the 0.6000-threshold at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5980

Resistance: 0.6030

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.75% in October as inflation converges to target.
• The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation is within its 1 to 3% inflation target range and converging on the 2% midpoint.
• Economic activity in New Zealand is subdued, in part due to restrictive monetary policy while business investment and consumer spending have been weak, and employment conditions continue to soften.
• The economy is now in a position of excess capacity, encouraging price- and wage-setting to adjust to a low-inflation economy; lower import prices have assisted the disinflation.
• High-frequency indicators point to continued subdued growth in the near term, mostly due to weak consumer spending and business investment while labour market conditions are expected to ease further, with filled jobs and advertised vacancy rates continuing to decline.
• The Committee confirmed that future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy.
• Next meeting is on 27 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 24th October)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Tokyo Core CPI eased from 2.0% in the previous month to 1.8% YoY in October. Although the result was slightly higher than the forecast of 1.7%, it marked the lowest reading since April. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further in Japan, it could cause the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move cautiously with regards to another rate hike. This softer core reading lifted USD/JPY above 152 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.5 to 3.0% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a passthrough to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• In the second half of the projection period of the July 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, but it is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 31 October 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany ifo Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Germany’s ifo Business Climate index has declined for five consecutive months as sentiment has deteriorated in this once economic powerhouse of Europe. However, yesterday’s flash PMI readings for Germany showed marginal improvement in both manufacturing and services activity which suggests sentiment holding up in October. Should the ifo survey exceed market consensus, the Euro could receive a much-needed near-term boost before the start of the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council today decided to reduce the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
• The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

As demand for the greenback eased overnight, USD/CHF pulled back towards 0.8650. This currency pair stabilized around this level as Asian markets came online and should remain elevated as the final trading day of the week comes to a close – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8635

Resistance: 0.8710

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
• Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
• The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
• However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
• Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Monetary Policy Report Hearings (Tentative)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his fellow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members will be testifying on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few hours in length and could create market volatility for the Pound during this event. After falling to an overnight low of 1.2948, Cable was edging higher towards 1.2980 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.0% while one member preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, on 19th September 2024.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation had been 2.2% in August and July, slightly lower than August Report expectations. Consumer core goods and food price inflation had remained subdued as the cost pressures from previous global shocks had unwound further, and producer price levels had been broadly flat while energy prices had continued to drag on CPI inflation.
• Services price inflation had increased to 5.6% in August compared to 5.2% in July and 5.7% in June. This was slightly lower in August than had been expected at the time of the August Report. There had been volatility in a number of services sub-components in the July and August outturns, including accommodation and catering prices and airfares.
• GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q2, 0.1 percentage points lower than had been expected in the August Monetary Policy Report. That had followed 0.7% growth in Q1, but Bank staff judged that the underlying pace of growth had been somewhat weaker during the first half of the year. 
• Headline GDP growth was expected to return to its underlying pace of around 0.3% per quarter in the second half of the year. Based on a broad set of indicators, the MPC judged that the labour market continued to loosen but that it remained tight by historical standards.
• Monetary policy decisions have been guided by the need to squeeze persistent inflationary pressures out of the system so as to return CPI inflation to the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis; policy has been acting to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored.
• In the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate while monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• Next meeting is on 7 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Consumer spending in Canada has been relatively weak for most of this year but it rebounded strongly in July as sales jumped 0.9% MoM to mark the highest gains since April 2023. Categories such as motor vehicles and parts dealers; food and beverage retailers; general merchandise retailers and health and personal care retailers led the sharp increase in sales. The estimate of a 0.5%-increase for the month of August points to a second consecutive month of higher sales and could provide a much-needed lift for the Loonie later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd September; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
• The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
• The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
• With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
• If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• Next meeting is on 11 December 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Persistent high volatility for crude oil has kept traders on their toes over the past few months. After reversing sharply from $72.20 to dive as low as $69.73 per barrel on Thursday, prices for WTI oil stabilized to retrace higher as Asian markets came online. This benchmark was edging higher towards $70.50 and looks set to close in the green following last week’s sharp fall of 8.5%.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 October 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Chinese media outlet Global Times with a summary of cuts that came into effect today:

• many Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have cut some of their existing mortgage rates
• Mortgage rates that currently exceed loan prime rate (LPR)-30 basis points (BP) will be reduced uniformly to LPR-30BP
• After the adjustment, the average reduction in mortgage rates for existing home loans is around 0.5 percentage points.
• The move is expected to benefit 50 million households, or a population of 150 million, and reduce the total interest expenses for households by approximately 150 billion yuan ($21.05 billion) per year on average.

That is not ‘flood like’ stimulus by any means – and we’ve been told over and over that the prospect of that again is basically zero. But, these cuts, for so many households, are significant.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on podcaster Joe Rogan’s program

• scheduling did not line up, spokesperson Ian Sams said on MSNBC

Rogan is popular with young men, a demographic I thought Harris might be keen to speak with. Not this time though.

Joe, if you are reading this, and you have a spare slot now, just get David Goggins back on. TIA.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa:

• Won’t comment on forex levels
• Important for
  currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Weak yen has various
  impact on economy

Meek comments these.

USD/JPY is around 151.92 or so.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal with the article,:

• Musk has forged deep business ties with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, giving him unique visibility into some of America’s most sensitive space programs. SpaceX, which operates the Starlink service, won a $1.8 billion classified contract in 2021 and is the primary rocket launcher for the Pentagon and NASA. Musk has a security clearance that allows him access to certain classified information.

Journal is gated, link here if you can access it.

I’m not sure how bullish this is for TSLA?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports its latest national survey, finding that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. The journal caveats with:

• within the polls’ margins of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead

I haven’t seen many polls, apart from the ‘betting markets’ that show a much larger Trump lead. Not sure these are reliable so I’m sticking with regular old polling.

From the Journal article on this national pol vs. swing state polling conducted earlier in October:

• the Journal’s poll earlier this month of the seven battleground states likely to determine the Electoral College winner found them all essentially tied, with Trump building a meaningful advantage only in Nevada, which like the others was within the poll’s margin of error. “All signs point to a race that’s very much up in the air, and the last two weeks will determine who votes and who wins in a close race,”

‘Earlier this month’ is probably not too helpful, it’s a fluid contest and very tight. I think the winner will be which one of the two can motivate their voters to get out the door to the polling place on the day.

The WSJ is gated, but here is the link if you can access it.

***

The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters from Oct. 19 to 22. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headline CPI 1.8% y/y, down from September

• expected 1.9%, prior 2.2%

Core 1.8% y/y, and ditto, down from September

• expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%
• this is ex-food

Core-core 1.8% y/y, underlying inflation up from September

• expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%
• ex-food and energy __________

****

Tokyo area inflation data:

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
• It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
• Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

****

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tech Stocks Surge Higher – Nasdaq Up 0.75%

US tech stocks rallied yesterday, with Tesla leading the charge, soaring 22% after an impressive earnings report. The Nasdaq ended the day up 0.76%, while the S&P 500 trailed behind with a modest gain of 0.21%. In contrast, the Dow Jones fell 0.33%. US Treasury yields retreated from recent multi-month highs, with the 2-year yield dropping 1.6 basis points to 4.071% and the 10-year yield falling 4.2 basis points to 4.199%. The US dollar also weakened, with the DXY falling 0.39% to close at 104.02. Oil prices declined amid news of potential ceasefire talks, with Brent down 0.56% to $74.54 and WTI falling 0.82% to $70.19. Gold rose in line with the weaker dollar, gaining 0.71%, closing the New York session at $2,748.90, edging closer to record levels.

Oil Prices Remain Volatile in an Uncertain World

Oil prices have experienced significant volatility in recent months, with traders anticipating more of the same as the year progresses. Price movements have been heavily influenced by updates on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impact on supply from the region. Yesterday’s trading session was no exception, as renewed ceasefire discussions led to a pullback following a recent rally. Additional geopolitical factors are influencing the market, including the upcoming US election, with many traders now pricing in a negative impact on ‘Black Gold’ if Trump appears likely to win. Support for WTI is currently around $68 per barrel, with resistance near $78, though some market participants believe these ranges could be broken sooner rather than later, especially if one of the aforementioned geopolitical issues escalates.

Another Busy Trading Day to Close Out the Week

Traders are anticipating another active trading day to end the week, with a relatively light calendar set to combine with ongoing geopolitical developments. The Asian session will initially focus on Japanese markets, with Tokyo CPI data due for release early in the day. In the European session, the German IFO Business Climate numbers are expected, although their impact has diminished in recent years, Euro traders will still be attentive to any surprises away from the expected print of 85.6. The US session is expected to remain lively, with attention turning to Canada as retail sales data is released, following the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut. Additionally, secondary US data, including Durable Goods numbers and revised University of Michigan figures, will add to the day’s trading activity.

The post General Market Analysis – 25/10/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The latest I’ve seen re polling is from Asahi earlier this week, showing that

• the ruling LDP could lose up to 50 of its 247 seats in the lower house
• LDP coalition party Komeito could see its seats fall under 30
• 233 is needed to govern, the incumbent LDP may fall short of this if polling is accurate and need support from Komeito (LDP is in coalition with K in the upper house) and other parties
• opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan could win 140 seats

We have some traders reading ForexLive in Japan who are better informed than me on Japanese politics. I’m sure they’ll rake me over the coals with corrections 😉

While we wait for them to stumble out of all-night sake-drinking parties here is a link to a Reuters preview for more:

• Japan election to test ruling party, may bring uncertainty

Japan PM

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK GfK October consumer confidence -21.0

• expected -21.0, prior -20.0

GBP little changed, around 1.2972

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.