406344 October 1, 2024 06:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The major US stock indices are trading mixed to start the weekend and the third quarter.
The snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing:
The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading down -4.93 points or -0.22% at 2219.77
For the third quarter, the major indices are all higher:
For the trading month:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
406343 October 1, 2024 06:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Israeli military says it has begun limited, localized and targeted
raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern
Lebanon
Markets are concerned about escalation in the conflict, especially oil traders.
–
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406342 October 1, 2024 06:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Judo Bank / S&P Global for September 2024
46.7
In summary from the report:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406341 October 1, 2024 05:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Expectations are for improved retail sales data from Australia today:
Commnets from CBA’s preview:
***
0030 GMT is 11.30 am Sydney time and 2130 US Eastern time.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406340 October 1, 2024 04:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
abrdn is an Asset Management firm. Funny spelling, short for ‘a burden’ I think, but could be wrong.
Of course politics isn’t the only input into the yen. Fed developments overnight helped cut the legs out from it:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406339 October 1, 2024 04:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
New Zealand data much improved. Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). Link to more here. In summary:
Business confidence comes in at -1% in Q3
Net 5% expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months
Firms’ own trading activity, net 31% reporting a decline in activity in their own business in Q3, but only net 2% are expecting weaker activity in Q4.
On inflation pressure:
On the employment front:
—
The QSBO is a closely-watched survey:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406338 October 1, 2024 04:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Markets in mainland China are closed today, Tuesday, October 1, 2024. They reopen for trade on Tuesday 8 October.
Hong Kong markets are also closed on Tuesday, October 1, 2024 for the National Day holiday. They reopen on Wednesday, October 2, 2024.
‘Stock Connect’, both directions, will be closed as per the mainland China holidays (i.e. until reopening Teusday October 8).
***
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one:
In addition to the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, there is also the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect
***
South Korea markets are also closed today for Armed Forces Day.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406337 October 1, 2024 04:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The new week was void of economic data with the exception of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index which came in at -9.0 vs -.9.7 last month. However, there was some Fedspeak with Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic and Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee kicking things off.
Bostic expressed openness to a 50 basis point rate cut if the labor market continues to show signs of weakness. His baseline expectation, however, is for an orderly easing process as inflation slows and the job market holds steady. Despite this, Bostic remains cautious due to core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, still being at 2.7%.
Bostic emphasized the importance of closely monitoring job growth. He noted that if employment growth slows below 100,000 jobs, it would raise concerns about potential underlying issues in the labor market. Despite this, his business contacts report that they do not expect layoffs, and recent PCE data shows that disinflation remains on track.
Looking ahead, Bostic’s outlook involves gradual Fed easing over a 15-month period, with a target policy rate of 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2025. The Fed’s dot plot looks for EOY 2025 at 3.40%. He currently supports one additional 25 basis point rate cut this year, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor market data. The Fed penciled in 50 bps additional easing by year end.
Soon after Bostic spoke, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, speaking on FOXBusiness, expressed concern about the potential continuation of a port shutdown. He noted that the Fed’s rate cuts are a response to the normalization of the economy, emphasizing that the labor market remains sustainable despite some cautionary indicators. Goolsbee highlighted that the process of easing interest rates is essential, predicting a significant number of rate cuts ahead. He also stated that inflation is approaching the Fed’s target and stressed that the case for cutting rates is clear and unrelated to political considerations.
After they had spoken, it was the Fed Chair Powells turn. He spoke and answered questions at a National Association of Business Economists meeting (NABE).
Powell indicated that monetary policy will gradually move toward a neutral stance if the economy continues to meet projections. He highlighted that the risks are balanced and that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Importantly, Powell noted that further cooling of the labor market is not necessary to achieve the Fed’s targets, as both the economy and labor market remain in solid shape. He expressed increased confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward 2%, with broad-based disinflation, and expects housing services inflation to continue declining as long as rent growth for new tenants remains low.
The recent 50 basis point rate cut, according to Powell, reflects confidence in maintaining labor market strength while recalibrating policy. He emphasized that the process of rate cuts will be gradual, guided by economic data, with the possibility of two more cuts by the end of the year.
Powell also pointed to an upward revision in Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which showed stronger growth than initially reported, with GDI growing at a 3.4% rate in the recent quarter. This revision suggests consumers may have more spending power, which could help sustain the economy’s strength.
The comments from Powell gave the USD a bid and sent yields higher as the market continued to backtrack on a 50 bp cut in November. The expectation for 50 bps is down to 35% from near 60% last week.
Looking at the yield curve:
US stocks did move lower as Powell spoke, but by the close, the major indices held pushed into positive territory to end the trading month.
The Small-cap Russell 2000 close up 5.26 points or 0.24% of 2229.97.
Mapping the strongest to the weakest of the major currencies, the NZD and the AUD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY was the weakest of the major currencies.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
406336 October 1, 2024 03:30 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Bank of America say that with EUR/USD on approach to their year-end target of 1.12 the pair has limited upside:
(
I’ll just pop in that after Powell spoke on Monday those expectations looked to have been overpriced for the Fed:
)
BoA go on:
—
EUR/USD update:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406335 October 1, 2024 03:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The US market didn’t like what it heard from Powell but that was overwhelmed by late-quarter buying.
See quarterly performance here.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
406334 October 1, 2024 03:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
First off, there are market closures in Asia today for holidays.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene is up soon. Greene spoke last week:
The data agenda that follows is packed.
New Zealand kicks it off with building permits and the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). The QSBO is a closely-watched survey:
NZD/USD may find some support if this survey improves but overall is more subject to global US dollar moves at present.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
406333 October 1, 2024 03:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:.
Thread to post financial markets trading ideas – Post ’em if ya got ’em!
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.