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China’s top legislature, the 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8.

The vice finance minister says further details will be announced after this.

• China to step up counter-cyclical fiscal policy
• China confident in achieving around 5% growth target
• Details of fiscal stimulus will undergo a legal process
• Will be announced after the National People’s Congress session

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mixed End to the Week in US Markets – Nasdaq up 0.5%

US stock markets closed out the week on Friday with mixed results as investors braced for what could be a pivotal few weeks for global markets. Tech stocks outperformed once again, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.56% by the close. In contrast, the other two major indices fared worse, with the S&P dipping slightly by 0.03% and the Dow dropping 0.61%. US Treasury yields continued their upward trend, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.8 basis points to 4.094% and the 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points to 4.226%. Meanwhile, the dollar regained strength in the foreign exchange markets, with the DXY index closing Friday up 0.18% following a drop the previous day. Oil prices saw notable movement as traders priced in the possibility of increased conflict in the Middle East. Brent rose 2.25% to $76.05 and WTI climbed 2.27% to $71.78, although the limited military action taken by Israel over the weekend led oil to open lower this morning. Gold prices also rose on Friday, gaining 0.44%, but have since opened lower in the Asian markets today.

Traders Anticipate Increased Volatility Ahead

Investors are preparing for an active trading period ahead, with numerous economic data releases and central bank meetings on the horizon. Nonetheless, many view geopolitical events as the primary drivers of volatility. This morning, significant price gaps from Friday’s closing levels have already been observed, with oil and gold prices beginning the day substantially lower than last week’s close. Brent oil, for instance, opened in Asia with a nearly 5% drop, while WTI fell close to 4%, and gold started the day over 0.5% down. Concerns that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities over the weekend had prompted a spike in prices on Friday, but the limited strikes on military installations have been interpreted positively by markets, both for oil prices and as an indication of potential ceasefire talks. Traders expect such fluctuations to continue, especially with the US election on the horizon and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

A Crucial Week Ahead for Traders

While the macroeconomic calendar for today is sparse, traders are bracing for a volatile start, especially given the price gaps on the Asian open following unexpected geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Japan. Oil and gold have taken a hit due to milder-than-expected military action by Israel over the weekend, and the yen has weakened following a surprising election result in Japan that saw the Liberal Democratic Party lose its parliamentary majority. There is little else scheduled for the day until later, when Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is due to speak. However, many anticipate further market turbulence as traders react to geopolitical updates and prepare for an eventful calendar in the weeks to come.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/10/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Wow Nellie. We have a horse race.

The final CNN poll has Trump and Harris deadlocked at 47%.

Earlier today NYTimes/Siena College poll in its final poll also showed a dead heat as well.

Other polls show similar close results:

Election Day: November 5.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The South Korean finance minister says will swiftly respond to any excessive forex market volatilities.

I’m guessing we’ll hear some sort of similar comments out of Japan today given the slump in the yen:

• Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week

Earlier:

• USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plunge

• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October 2024 – YEN slammed lower

USD/JPY update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY highs circa 153.30 (EBS).

The yen has dropped after the Japanese election, latest is here:

• Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week

Earlier:

• USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plunge

• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October 2024 – YEN slammed lower

Update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It looks set to be a significant week ahead for financial markets, with a wealth of US economic data, critical tech earnings updates, and further developments in the run-up to the US election all likely to make an impact.

Last week now seems to have been the calm before what could be a pivotal fortnight for both the US economy and global markets. Key employment figures are due, which traders will scrutinise closely after last month’s strong results led to a notable shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Adding to the mix, we have earnings updates from five of the ‘Magnificent 7’, alongside a close race for the White House, key economic data from other major regions, and an interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan, leaving no room for complacency in the coming days and weeks.

Here is our day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Monday appears to be a calmer day with limited scheduled events likely to impact markets. The main geopolitical updates are Japan’s Lower House elections and a statement from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem later in the day. Overall, smoother trading conditions are expected to start the week.

Activity on the calendar picks up later on Tuesday. During the London session, we’ll have the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings, though the main focus will shift to the US later in the day. The CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data are due soon after the New York open, while stock markets will also react to Alphabet’s earnings report.

In the Asian session, attention turns to Australia with the latest CPI data out during the Sydney morning. In Europe, inflation data from Germany (CPI) and Spain (Flash CPI) will be released early on. The US market will have another ‘double play’ of data, with GDP figures and ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers both out simultaneously. The day will end with earnings reports from Facebook and Microsoft.

Australian Retail Sales data will kick off the Asian session, though this may soon be eclipsed by Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. Later in the day, we expect significant movements in the Yen with a major rate decision from the Bank of Japan. Although the European session is lighter, the US session promises volatility with a ‘triple header’ of updates: the PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, and weekly Unemployment Claims. Additionally, the Chicago PMI numbers will be out, and Amazon and Apple are set to release earnings after hours.

If the week hasn’t delivered enough potential for market shifts, Friday closes with the all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls. There’s little scheduled for the Asian session, but Swiss Franc traders will be focused on Switzerland’s CPI update early in the London session. The US employment data, including a forecasted 111k increase for the headline figure, a 0.3% rise in Average Hourly Earnings, and an anticipated steady Unemployment Rate at 4.1%, is expected to add extra volatility to the final hours of the week.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 28 October 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The Israeli attack on Iran seems designed to minimise the chance of an all-out war:

• Israel strikes on Iran look designed to minimize the chance of retaliation

Oil prices getting slammed lower on futures markets to open the new week.

• Brent down nearly $4 to circa $72
• WTI down over $4 to under $68

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election over the weekend, which leaves the world’s fourth-largest economy facing the prospect of minority government, or minor parties acting as linchpins in coalition.

• USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plunge

• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October 2024 – YEN slammed lower

Where we’re at:

• Japan’s lower house has 465 seats
• 233 are required to form a majority
• Going into the election the ruling LDP combined with its coalition partner (which gave the two a majority in the upper house) held 288 seats in the lower house
• Current counting has LDP 191, K 24 … so 215, well short of 233 required.
• Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is the largest opposition party, they have increased their seats to 148 (91 prior)
• Two smaller opposition parties, Nippon Ishin no Kai (has 38 seats, from 43 prior) or the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) (has 28 seats, from 7 prior) looks likely to be the partner for LDP/Komeito to get over the 233 seat line

There are still some seats to be decided.

USD/JPY gapped higher (see earlier posts for a better picture of the moves up to now) update:

10 minute candles shown.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This’ll thin out trade in the kiwi somewhat.

• Australia
• Japan
• Hong Kong
• Singapore
• China

are all in as normal.

This little guy lives in the UK, daylight saving there ended on the weekend.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) slip[ped these out over the weekend:

• industrial profits September, -27.1% y/y

prior -17.8% in August

earnings -3.5% in the January – September period

• prior +0.5% (January-August period)

according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

That plunge for industrial profits in September is the biggest monthly decline all year.

NBS says the collapse in industrial profits in September was due to:

• insufficient demand
• sharper decline in producer prices
• higher base of comparison since August

NBS finished on an upbeat note (which is almost obligatory in communist politburo-ruled China):

• recently unveiled policy measures will “foster a favourable environment for the production and operation of industrial enterprises, supporting the recovery and improvement of their profits”

The recent policy announcement will dull the impact of these figures somewhat.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Clocks in Europe the UK went back an hour on Sunday October 27 for the end of daylight saving.

US clocks will change next weekend, Sunday November 3.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.