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• Prior month 0.2% (revised from 0.1%)
• Wholesale inventories for September 2024 -0.1%
• Retail inventories X auto +0.1% versus 0.5% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month $-94.22 billion

Advance International Trade in Goods

• International trade deficit was $108.2 billion in September, up $14.0 billion from August

• Exports of goods for September were $174.2 billion, $3.6 billion less than August exports

• Imports of goods for September were $282.4 billion, $10.4 billion more than August imports

This is likely a result of the dock workers strike expecations. Companies imported early in anticipation of the strike. That strike was solved and we might expect lower deficits going forward as a result.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

At the bottom of the hour, the US advance goods trade balance for September will be released with deficit $-95.9 billion expected. That is a larger deficit compared to last months $-94.22 billion.

Wholesale inventories for September will also be released with expectations of +0.1% (was +0.1% last month as well.

Later at 10 AM, the Case Shiller home price data for August is expected to show a 0.2% gain for the month versus 0.3% last month. The year on year is expected that +5.1% versus 5.9% last month.

Also at 10 AM, the jolts job openings are expected to show a near unchanged level of 8.000 million for September versus 8.040 million last month.

This afternoon at 1 PM, the US treasury will auction off 7-year notes. Yesterday they auctioned off two and five year notes with below average demand.

In other markets today

• Bitcoin is trading higher at $71,188
• Futures are implying a lower US stock opening. S&P index is implying decline -8.25 points and the Dow industrial average -137.57 points. The NASDAQ index is also lower by -5.32 points.
• US yields are higher once again with the tenure up 4.0 basis points at 4.318%. The two year yield is up 2.2 basis points 4.162%.

The earnings calendar continues to heat up as the week goes forward. Below is the schedule of releases for the rest of the week

After Close:

• AMD
• Alphabet
• Snap Inc.
• Chipotle
• Visa
• First Solar

WednesdayBefore Open:

• Lilly
• Caterpillar
• Humana

After Close:

• Microsoft
• Meta
• Coinbase
• Robinhood

ThursdayBefore Open:

• Uber
• Peloton
• Merck
• ConocoPhillips
• SiriusXM
• Altria
• Mastercard

After Close:

• Amazon
• Apple
• Intel

FridayBefore Open:

• FuboTV
• Chevron
• ExxonMobil
• Wayfair

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Iranian revolutionary guards threaten Israelis with surprises they have never seen before
• UK September mortgage approvals 65.65k vs 65.00k expected
• China mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next week
• DIHK warns that German economy is set to stagnate in 2025
• European equities hold higher to start the session
• What are the main events for today?
• BlackRock CEO says Fed will cut at least by 25 bps before year-end
• Eurostoxx futures +0.2% in early European trading
• Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -18.3 vs -20.5 expected
• US futures stay more muted so far on the day
• US reportedly have been declining to change language when discussing Taiwan independence
• Another light one on the data docket in Europe today
• FX option expiries for 29 October 10am New York cut
• UK reportedly open to restarting key trade dialogue with China
• Heads up: It’s a big week on the earnings calendar

Markets:

• GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures down -0.12%
• US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.300%
• Gold
  up 0.28% to $2,749
• WTI
  crude up 1.44% to $68.35
• Bitcoin up 2.15% to $71,444

It’s been a slow session in terms of data releases and market moves. The main highlight is the news about China mulling to approve a new fiscal package next week worth over 10
trillion yuan which is expected to be bolstered further if Trump wins the
US election. That gave copper and chinese stocks a boost.

Other than that, we didn’t get anything notable. The playbook in the markets remains the same as we head into the US election with Treasury yields pushing higher and the US Dollar remaining supported. The US stock market continues to display a rangebound price action while gold, and especially bitcoin, keep pushing into new highs.

In the American session, the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence will be the data to watch alhough given the market’s focus on the election, weak data might be faded, while strong data could add more fuel to the Trump trade.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Iranian revolutionary guards threaten Israelis with surprises they have never seen before.
• Threaten to deliver more “crushing” strikes to Israel in coming days.

Crude oil is ticking higher on the news. I have a feeling that the Trump trade we’ve been seeing in other markets have also spilled into the crude oil market on higher supply fears. Nonetheless, the big gap lower we got on Monday open did look like an overreaction, so this news might provide a pullback to fill the gap.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 64.86k; revised to 64.96k
• Net consumer credit £1.2 billion vs £1.3 billion expected
• Prior £1.3 billion

Mortgage approvals rose to the highest level since August 2022 but on net, individual mortgage debt fell by £0.3 billion, to £2.5 billion in September. Meanwhile, annual consumer credit growth dipped slightly to 7.5% – down from 7.7% in August.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is being reported that Beijing is looking to approve next week the issuance of over ¥10 trillion in extra debt over the next few years in order to revive economic conditions. And the package will be expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the US election.

For some context, China’s top legislative body i.e. the National People’s Congress (NPC) is said to be meeting next week with the announcement set to follow on 8 November, according to the sources. More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In their latest forecasts today, DIHK is slashing their outlook on the German economy and anticipating a 0.2% contraction for this year. As for 2025, they are expecting zero growth in the economy in what will be a third year without any real growth in GDP.

“We are not just dealing with a cyclical, but a stubborn structural crisis in Germany. We are greatly concerned about how much Germany is becoming an economic burden for Europe and can no longer fulfil its role as an economic workhorse.”

Their latest survey also shows that 31% of firms are expecting the business situation to worsen in the months ahead, and that figure is up from 26% in the last survey. Pain.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.4%
• Germany DAX +0.4%
• France CAC 40 +0.6%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX -0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.5%

US futures were also up a touch in the past hour but have surrendered that advance to start the session. S&P 500 futures are now flat. For European indices, the optimism holds for now but keep an eye out on the bond market for broader sentiment. 10-year Treasury yields are now up 1.2 bps on the day at the highs of 4.29%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/10/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Fink argues that “it is fair to say the Fed will make at least a 25 bps rate cut by the end of 2024”. And that falls within the forecast made by his firm, arguing for a 25 bps to 50 bps move before the year is done with.

However, Fink warns that “we have greater embedded inflation than we have ever seen”. And given that backdrop, “rates will not be as low as forecast”.

In terms of market pricing, traders are expecting another 25 bps rate cut next week with ~43 bps of rate cuts baked in for that and the December meeting together.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -21.2; revised to -21.0

Despite worries surrounding the economy, Germany’s consumer climate climbs to its highest level since April 2022 in the latest reading here. Looking at the details, both income expectations and the willingness to buy showed an improvement for the second time in a row. But despite a pick up in the headline reading, it is still at a relatively low level historically. GfK notes that:

“The level of Consumer Climate remains very low. The uncertainty caused by crises, wars and rising prices is still very much present and is preventing factors that encourage consumption, e.g. the real income growth, from taking full effect. Reports of a rising number of company insolvencies and plans to cut jobs or relocate production abroad are also preventing a more significant recovery in consumer sentiment.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.