405865 September 18, 2024 19:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Starts hit a post-pandemic low last month but rebounded nicely here. They’re still far too low for population growth but rate
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
405864 September 18, 2024 19:30 Forexlive Latest News Market News
US housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and forecast to rebound to 1.310m after falling to a post-pandemic low last month.
The long-term chart highlights the problem: US housing starts are significantly lower than they were in 1980 despite a 47% increase in US population.
The housing crash led to a bust in home building that was just turning around when the pandemic dawned. Low interest rates briefly spurred more building but that was quickly undone by high rates.
A healthy rate for US home construction is upwards of 1.6m units and I could argue it’s significantly higher than that. Fortunately, as rates begin turning, it should tick towards that.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
405863 September 18, 2024 19:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Headlines:
Markets:
It’s all about the countdown to the Fed and we’re seeing some mixed moves in markets ahead of the main event later.
The dollar is weaker across the board and that despite Treasury yields holding up on the session. USD/JPY remains pinned down since Asia trading, keeping around 141.60-80 levels mostly during the session.
UK inflation data was the main highlight and that helped to prop up sterling a little bit. Services inflation remains a problem for the BOE and that increased odds of the central bank standing pat tomorrow. GBP/USD moved up from 1.3160 to just above 1.3200 currently.
Besides that, the greenback held slightly softer across the board with the antipodeans gaining some modest traction. AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6785 while NZD/USD is up 0.7% to 0.6225 on the day.
That comes even as US futures are keeping more pensive, while European indices are looking rather sluggish. On the latter, perhaps investors are taking on a more cautious approach as the Fed decision will come after the European close.
Tick tock, tick tock. The end of the FOMC meeting can’t come soon enough.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405859 September 18, 2024 18:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
A further drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan sparked a big jump in refinancing activity in the past week. And that led to the surge in mortgage applications, also helped by a slight bump in purchases activity. Recovery time?
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405858 September 18, 2024 17:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Fed has a very, very big decision to make today. A rate cut is all but confirmed but the major question is by how much? They’ve been suggesting a likelihood of moving by 25 bps since Jackson Hole but market players aren’t listening all too intently. Even if that is what is “expected” according to estimates from economists, traders are still pricing in considerable odds of a 50 bps move.
So, what will the Fed do later today?
Either way, someone, somewhere is bound to get disappointed. And as is the case when such emotion seeps into markets, expect there to be plenty in the reaction and some significant moves in the aftermath.
The case for moving by 25 bps has been one that Fed policymakers have been outlining since Jackson Hole. The disinflation process is starting to take hold but still moving rather gradually. And there is some softening in labour market conditions but it still largely fits with their soft landing narrative.
So, why the need to push for a 50 bps move?
Well, this is very much markets trying to signal to the Fed they are behind the curve and get policymakers to do their bidding. They tried kicking and screaming in early August and that didn’t work. So, there is a tail risk the carry trade unwind episode could reemerge if the Fed does disappoint certain quarters in the market.
Fed watcher Timiraos contributed to the indecisiveness in markets with his piece last week here. And he added more colour to things yesterday here.
The case in point for a 50 bps move is that the Fed might feel more comfortable in starting off with a bit of a bigger move.
For one, it’ll alleviate suggestions that they are behind the curve and need to do more. Secondly, if economic data is to worsen in the weeks ahead, they’ve at least shown that they are trying to address that in a prompter manner. That as opposed to moving by 25 bps and then not providing much hints about the next move in November.
Nonetheless, the Fed has plenty of ammunition still in the tank. So, to say that they’ve missed the boat in not moving by 50 bps today and that it is all doom and gloom would be misplaced.
I mean, let’s be real. Labour market conditions in the US have shown signs of cooling with some noticeable hiccups or two recently. But other economic data are not screaming out for a significant downturn or recession. As such, a soft landing scenario is still very much valid by all accounts.
If the Fed does stick to its guns, I reckon there will be plenty of kicking and screaming before the week is over. But even if they do make a decision to try and pacify markets, there will be discontent but perhaps not as much given the current pricing. If anything, it’ll be dollar bulls that will be cursing their luck in thinking that the Fed has the cojones to step up when it matters.
But we’ll see what they do later on in the day. Either way, there will be disappointment no matter what the outcome is.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405857 September 18, 2024 16:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
No changes to the initial estimates for the August readings. It just reaffirms the slow path of the disinflation process in recent months, keeping the ECB on their toes. The central bank has said that they will pause rate cuts in October, while gauging the anticipated bump in price pressures due to base effects in Q4.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405856 September 18, 2024 16:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
A couple of details from the report for September:
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405855 September 18, 2024 15:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The pair was trading around 1.3160 prior to the UK CPI report here. But it is trading to fresh session highs of 1.3205 currently. Looking at the near-term chart above, it’s still not indicative of much. Buyers are in near-term control but there is some daily resistance around 1.3200 with the August high at 1.3266 limiting further upside as well.
For trading today, the pound side of the equation has been filled. It’s now down to the dollar side of the equation and that will rely on the Fed.
In the meantime, I wouldn’t expect cable to run away with gains all too much. That being said, traders have just pared back odds for a rate cut tomorrow down from ~37% previously to ~26% now. Given that argument, there might be scope for the pound to gain a little more as the BOE does look poised to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.
As for the levels to watch in case that upside extends, it will be the ones highlighted above – at least for the time being. That until we get the dollar side of the equation to sort itself out later.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405854 September 18, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 September 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
The dollar index (DXY) was relatively unchanged as it hovered around 100.80 by Asia midday and markets could tread cautiously for most parts of today before springing into high gear as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes centre stage later on. Prior to that, inflation data for the Euro Area and the U.K. is also scheduled to be released and higher volatility could be expected for these currencies too.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The final CPI reading for the month of August is expected to show headline CPI ease to 2.2% YoY while the core reading moderates to 2.8% YoY. Inflationary pressures have dissipated strongly in the Euro Area over the past 12 months and another round of cooler prices could limit the Euro’s recent gains in the interim.
Inflation in the U.K. has moderated significantly lower in 2024 as headline and core CPI both slowed to 2.2% and 3.3% respectively YoY in July. However, the estimate for August points to an unchanged reading of 2.2% for headline CPI and suggests a temporary stall in progress towards the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Should inflationary pressures pick up unexpectedly, it could boost the Cable before the start of the European trading session.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After beginning its rate hike cycle in March of 2022, the Federal Reserve is finally gearing up for its first interest rate cut since July of 2019. The Fed Funds rate currently stands at 5.25 to 5.5% and market estimates point to a 25-basis points (bps) cut. However, the CME FedWatch Tool has a target rate probability of 65% for a 50-bps cut as of 17th September. The market appears to be split on the size of this first cut and traders should proceed with caution as the countdown to the release of the statement inches closer while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference is bound to inject extreme volatility into the markets.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After beginning its rate hike cycle in March of 2022, the Federal Reserve is finally gearing up for its first interest rate cut since July of 2019. The Fed Funds rate currently stands at 5.25 to 5.5% and market estimates point to a 25-basis points (bps) cut. However, the CME FedWatch Tool has a target rate probability of 65% for a 50-bps cut as of 17th September. The market appears to be split on the size of this first cut and traders should proceed with caution as the countdown to the release of the statement inches closer while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference is bound to inject extreme volatility into the markets.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
Despite somewhat uplifting sales data from the U.S. overnight, the Aussie remained elevated. This currency pair was trading around 0.6770 as Asian markets came online – this morning and these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6650
Resistance: 0.6800
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi climbed above the 0.6200-level momentarily yesterday before retreating towards 0.6180 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was rising once more towards 0.6200 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6120
Resistance: 0.6235
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Higher demand for the greenback lifted USD/JPY overnight as it came within a whisker of 142.50. This currency pair dipped under 142 as Asian markets came online and could edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 139.80
Resistance: 143.70
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
CPI (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The final CPI reading for the month of August is expected to show headline CPI ease to 2.2% YoY while the core reading moderates to 2.8% YoY. Inflationary pressures have dissipated strongly in the Euro Area over the past 12 months and another round of cooler prices could limit the Euro’s recent gains in the interim.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
With demand for the dollar picking up overnight, USD/CHF hit an overnight high of 0.8476. This currency pulled back towards 0.8450 as Asian markets came online and could edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8500
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
CPI (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
Inflation in the U.K. has moderated significantly lower in 2024 as headline and core CPI both slowed to 2.2% and 3.3% respectively YoY in July. However, the estimate for August points to an unchanged reading of 2.2% for headline CPI and suggests a temporary stall in progress towards the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Should inflationary pressures pick up unexpectedly, it could boost the Cable before the start of the European trading session.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Demand for the Loonie has waned since the beginning of September causing USD/CAD to retrace higher and reach the threshold of 1.3600. This currency pair was floating around 1.3580 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3630
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
After declining for three consecutive weeks, the API stockpiles surprised markets with a build of 1.96M barrels of crude oil. However, this latest inventory update did not prevent prices from climbing higher. WTI oil rose within a whisker of $72 per barrel as geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated on Tuesday. However, this benchmark tumbled under $70 as Asian markets came online but higher volatility for this commodity continues to prevail.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 September 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
405853 September 18, 2024 14:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
US futures are also only up slightly around 0.1%, so it’s really not indicative of much. In FX, the pound is up slightly after the UK CPI report earlier here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping thereabouts at 141.70 since Asia trading mostly but down 0.5% on the day. There isn’t too much else happening with traders having to wait on the Fed policy decision later.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405852 September 18, 2024 13:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
That is down from ~37% previously coming into today. That means traders are seeing some ~74% odds of the BOE keeping rates unchanged tomorrow. And that is pretty much the consensus expectation in any case. From earlier: UK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
405851 September 18, 2024 13:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Coming into today, traders had been pricing in ~63% odds of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged tomorrow. And the inflation numbers here pretty much solidifies the notion that they will keep rates unchanged in September. That especially since services inflation ticked back higher from 5.2% in July to 5.6% in August.
The BOE has pointed to services inflation being stubborn and a key one they’re watching. So, with this report, it shouldn’t change the view that they are looking for more evidence of less sticky inflation before further loosening the restrictiveness of monetary policy.
GBP/USD is nudging just a little higher on the day to 1.3175 currently, up from around 1.3160 earlier.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.