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The data is here from earlier:

• Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)
• Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%)

A Japanese government says output will get better aehaed:

• Fall in motor vehicle production contributed to the decline in August
• Chip-making
  equipment output also decreased due to weaker overseas demand
• Chip-making
  machinery exports to Taiwan dropped significantly in August
• September output to
  get a lift from automakers’ making up production suspension during the typhoon in August

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The yen rocketed higher on Friday on political news:

• Japanese yen sureges as Ishiba wins PM contest

When I say rocketed, I am not exagerrating. USD/JPY was above 146.00 and ended Frdiay down near 142.00.

We’ve had a bit of a rebound/retracement in early Monday trade.

News and data:

• Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)
• Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%)
• Talk of a Japanese election October 27

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ Business Outlook survey September 2024

Business Confidence 60.9%

• prior 50.6%

Activity 45.3%

• prior 37.1%

ANZ comment:

• first signs of improvement in current activity
• A sharper rebound in economic activity than generally anticipated would of
  course be great news – as long as inflation still returns sustainably to target.
• The proportion of firms intending to raise their
  prices in the next three months lifted for a third consecutive month. It’s the
  highest since April and well above pre-COVID levels.
• But in good news from the RBNZ’s point of view, reported wage growth
  has dropped from 4% in April to 3% six months later, and no doubt relatedly,
  cost expectations have dropped steadily from 3.2% in April to 2.4% now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese industrial output for August 2024

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Earlier re Japan:

• Talk of a Japanese election October 27

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan August Retail Sales surprise to the topside.

Industrial output balanced it out by surprising to the downside.

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Earlier re Japan:

• Talk of a Japanese election October 27

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The 2024 class of university graduates in China is the largest ever, at 11.8mn. They are entering a labour market showing record youth unemployment.

Media reports, in summary, outline the cornering situation facing the oldies clinging on to power in the Politburo.

• Youth unemployment (16-24) hit 18.8% in August, near all-time high
• Less than 30% of firms hiring as many new grads as last year due to cost-cutting
• Key sectors for youth employment struggling:
  • Property sector in crisis
  • Tech and internet industry facing regulatory pressures
  • Tutoring industry hit by crackdowns
• Government temporarily paused reporting youth unemployment data in 2023
• Resumed with new calculation method, excluding current students
• Rate climbed back up despite methodological changes
• Recent stimulus measures announced, but effectiveness questioned by some
• President Xi promises support for workers and poor families, details lacking
• Some estimates put real youth unemployment much higher, potentially up to 46.5%
• Employed youth facing gruelling work conditions due to employer leverage

Its not only in China where ageing politicians are out of touch with conditions facing younger people.

But China’s stimulus is in the news, now you know why the rush.

ps. China is in Monday, but from tomorrow its week-long holiday time:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Global markets experienced another strong week as traders continued to price in a soft landing for the world’s largest economy, alongside expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Asian markets were also buoyed by a significant stimulus package from China. In the US, stock markets finished the week on a positive note, with the Dow reaching a fresh high on Friday.

Looking ahead, traders are anticipating another volatile week, which could begin as early as the market open on Monday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. A heavy data calendar is also expected, with a focus on US jobs figures and several central bank members scheduled to speak throughout the week.

Here’s a day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events in the coming days:

The week kicks off with a busy session as haven assets could see gapping on the open following increased tensions in the Middle East over the weekend. Early in the day, attention will shift to Chinese markets with the release of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. During the European session, inflation data takes centre stage, with Germany’s CPI numbers being updated throughout the day as individual states release their figures. In the US session, central bank activity will be in focus, with several key officials set to speak, culminating in an update from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

On Tuesday, markets in New Zealand and Australia will be in the spotlight, with the NZIER Business Confidence data due in early trading, followed by Australian Retail Sales figures. Chinese markets will close for the remainder of the week from Tuesday onwards, which could lead to lower liquidity. In Europe, attention will be on inflation once more, with the Eurozone Flash CPI Estimates due. In the US, the first significant jobs data of the week will be released, with the JOLTS Job Openings report and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures scheduled.

Wednesday appears to be relatively quiet in the early trading sessions, with little of note scheduled. However, once the New York session opens, there will be important data to watch, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment figures and the weekly Crude Oil inventory update.

The Asian session is expected to remain relatively subdued, but attention will shift to Switzerland at the European open, with the latest CPI data due. In the US, more jobs data will be released, starting with the weekly Unemployment Claims figures, followed by the ISM Services PMI midway through the session.

Friday has the potential to be the busiest day of the week, with key US employment data, including the Non-Farm Payrolls, released early in the US session. Although there is little scheduled in Asia, and only UK Construction data is due in the London session, the US employment numbers are likely to dominate market sentiment. Later in the day, the Canadian Ivey PMI figures will be released, but traders expect the focus to remain on the US data.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 30 September 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Kristofferson wrote many hits in the 1970s.

RIP.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan election October 27 rumoured, NHK

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In May the Australian Treasury forecast a budget suplus of A$9.8bn.

The final outcome though is way above, at A$15.8bn, which is more than A$6bn better than forecast.

Revenue dropped but spending was slashed.

It’s the first consecutive year surplus in nearly 20 years. Strong commodity prices were a solid contributing factor.

At the margin, less fiscal stimulus (represented by the larger surplus) will ease inflation pressure somewhat (like I said, at the margin) and will bring forward an RBA rate cut (let me repeat, at the margin, this is not a call for an imminent RBA rate cut).

More here.

AUd update, benefitting from Fed rate cut and China stimulus

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Rachel Reeves is the UK government’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. She’ll be attending a meeting of European Union finance ministers according to the Financial Times:

Reeves is on record as pushing for an ambitious deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

FT is gated.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters carried the report over the weekend:

• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday it was on alert after missiles firing deep in inland China
• detected “multiple waves of firing” by China’s Rocket Force and army in the provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, which all lie at least 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Taiwan

Reuters report is here if you’d like more info.

Mischievous AI seen on the internet somewhere

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.