Articles

None of these releases are likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. JPY will swing around regardless, its what it does. Yesterday we had a BoJ official driving yen buying:

• ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments

While it isn’t shown on the schedule below I am expecting a speech from another BoJ official today. Bank of Japan policy board member Tamura, at 0100 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major US stock indices had a snapback day, and what a snapback day it was.

• The Dow industrial average was lower by 743.89 points, but is closing up 124.75 points or 0.31% at 40861.71. At one point today all the Dow stocks were trading lower.
• The S&P was down -88.56 points but is closing higher by 58.60 points or 1.07% at 5554.12
• The NASDAQ index was down -238.04 points, and is closing up 369.65 points or 2.17% at 17395.53.

The Russell 2000 is closing up 6.41 points or 0.31% at 2103.84, but was down over -38.75 points at session lows.

Nvidia moved sharply higher after CEO Jensen Huang spoke positively at a Communicopia conference today. It’s shares are closing up $8.68 or 8.03% at 116.78.

SMCI is taking off it’s recent problems and rose $32.44 or 7.86% to $445.16

IBM hit a record high for the first time in a decade up 2.13% on the day at $209.

• Broadcom rose $10 or 6.75% to $158.21
• Micron rose $3.80 or 4.38% to $90.65.
• AMD rose 7 dollars or 4.90% to $149.84
• Intel is up $0.68 or 3.56% at $19.66
• Arm Holding is closing up $13.10 or 10.30% at $140.32.

A solid snapback day for the major stocks

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil prices have been very volatile today with the price first moving higher to a high of $67.58, then moving lower to a low at $65.63 before rotating back to the upside and making new high price up to $67.97. The high price today got within $0.16 of the falling 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at $68.13).

Note on Tuesday, the high price got within a similar distance on two separate occasions only to find willing sellers against that moving average level. It will take a move above the 100-hour moving average to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective at least in the short term.

The last time the price traded above its 100-hour moving average was back on August 30.

Despite a smaller-than-expected inventory build and the rebound, oil prices remain near their lowest point since May 2023 due to concerns over weakening demand, particularly in China. OPEC’s decision to lower its demand growth forecast and slowing crude oil imports from China contributed to the decline.

The EIA has reduced its oil price projections for Q4 and 2025, and the threat of Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico poses a risk to refinery operations.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Close to 40% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut due to Hurricane Francine. The storm is a category 1 with when so 90 mph and looking to make landfall on the Louisiana coast.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US mortgage rates have moved to their lowest level in 20 months.

The rate today moved to 6.11%. That is down from a high of 7.8% back on October 25, 2023.

Today the weekly mortgage data was reported with the 30 year mortgage rate at 6.29% for the week. When applications rose 1.4% with the refinancing index going to 757.8 from 751.4 last week

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is a report that the US is closer to allowing Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia.

Nvidia shares are trading up $4.72 or 4.3% at $112.80.

Moreover shares are back above its 100 day moving average at $111.57.

Shares of SMC are also rebounding strongly today with a gain of $20.85 or 5.02% to $432.96. Shares were hit hard on reports of accounting irregularities which SMCI denied after their own investigation. Shares moved to a low of $382.80 last week. That is down from $1229 back on March 8. And more recently at $963.30 on July 15.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

High Yield: 3.648%

Previous: 3.96%

Six-auction average: 4.314%

WI level at the time of the Auction: 3.662%

Tail: -1.4 basis points

Previous: 3.1bps

Six-auction average: 0.8bps

Bid-to-Cover: 2.64X

Previous: 2.32x

Six-auction average: 2.48x

Dealers: 10.25%

Previous: 17.9%

Six-auction average: 16.3%

Directs: 13.7%

Previous: 16.0%

Six-auction average: 17.0%

Indirects: 76.1%

Previous: 66.2%

Six-auction average: 66.7%

AUCTION GRADE: A-

For the second auction in a road the international demand was stellar at 76.1% versus a six month average of 66.7%. They crowded out the domestic buyers who could only get 13.7% which was below their average of 17.0%. Dealers demand was also light at 10.25% versus 16.3% average.

The tail was -1.4 basis points which was well below the +0.8 basis point average over the last six auctions. The bid to cover was also higher at 2.64X vs 2.48X

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion a 10 year notes at the top of the hour. Recall from last month this auction was not all that great with a tail of 3.1 basis points and a bid to cover below the six-month average.

Yesterday, the 3-year note auction was solid (I gave it a Grade of “A”). The tail was negative at -1.7 basis points the bid to cover was higher than average, and the support from international buyers was huge.

The component 6-month averages for the 10-year auctions, along with the previous results are outlined below:

High Yield:

Previous: 3.96%

Six-auction average: 4.314%

Tail:

Previous: 3.1bps

Six-auction average: 0.8bps

Bid-to-Cover:

Previous: 2.32x

Six-auction average: 2.48x

Dealers:

Previous: 17.9%

Six-auction average: 16.3%

Directs:

Previous: 16.0%

Six-auction average: 17.0%

Indirects:

Previous: 66.2%

Six-auction average: 66.7%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Environment is actually okay for bank activity
• there are places where it’s exhilarating
• the economy is still in great shape
• The likely scenario is that the Fed navigates with a soft landing
• COnsumer is still healthy especially in the service sector.
• I found the CEO sect at consumer seminar is quite positive on the economy
• See 2 maybe 3 cuts into the fall
• My view has always been very data dependent.
• The consensus is in the soft landing camp
• There is a case to be made for 50 basis points based on softer labor market
• My expectation is for 25 basis point cut.
• We have made real progress on inflation

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The European indices are closing with mixed results for September 11.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.34%
• France’s CAC, -0.14%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.15%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.67%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.12%

As London/European traders look to exit, the Dow leads the decline. The NASDAQ is now marginally higher in up and down trading.

• Dow industrial average is down -450 points ( it was down -700 points at lows) or -1.08% at 40,300
• S&P index is down -34 points or -0.61%
• NASDAQ index is now up 17 points or 0.10% at 17042

Meanwhile yields in the US have now turned positive ahead of the 10 year note auction at 1 PM:

• 2 year yield 3.637%, +2 point basis points.
• 5-year yield 3.448%, +2.1 basis points.
• 10 year yield 3.659%, +1.5 basis points.
• 30 year yield 3.966%, +1.3 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.