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• Prior month 2.2% YoY. Revised to 2.1%
• PPI final demand YoY 1.7% vs 1.8% estimate
• PPI final demand MoM 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior 0.1% revised to 0.0%
• PPI Ex food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.5% estimate. Prior 2.4% revised to 2.3%
• PPI Ex food and energy MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior 0.00% revised to -0.2%
• PPI food and energy and trade YoY 3.3% vs 3.3% prior (revised to 3.2%). MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% prior.

Final Demand Services:

• Prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.3% decline in July

• 60% of the increase is due to a 0.3% rise in final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing

• Margins for final demand trade services increased 0.6%

• Final demand transportation and warehousing services decreased 0.1%

Product Detail:

• Guestroom rental prices rose 4.8%, a major factor in the August advance

• Other price increases:

• Machinery and vehicle wholesaling

• Automotive fuels and lubricants retailing

• Residential real estate loans (partial)

• Professional and commercial equipment wholesaling

• Furniture retailing

• Price decreases:

• Airline passenger services (0.8%)

• Food and alcohol retailing

• Membership dues, admissions, and recreational facility use fees (partial)

Final Demand Goods:

• Prices were unchanged in August after a 0.6% rise in July

• Breakdown by category:

• Final demand goods less foods and energy: +0.2%

• Final demand foods: +0.1%

• Final demand energy: -0.9%

Product Detail:

• Price increases:

• Non-electronic cigarettes: +2.3%

• Chicken eggs

• Gasoline

• Diesel fuel

• Drugs and pharmaceuticals

• Price decreases:

• Jet fuel: -10.5%

• Meats

• Electric power

• Hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds

• Nonferrous scrap

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 227K; revised to 228K
• 4-week moving average 231K
• Prior 230K
• Continuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expected
• Prior 1.838M; revised to 1.845M

The headline figure continues to keep somewhat steady but at least down from the high of 250K last month. Continuing claims rose slightly in the latest report but the 4-week moving average there continues to point lower (1.852M vs 1.854M in the week before), so that’s a positive takeaway at least.

Looking at the details, the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 31 were in Massachusetts (+2,230), Wisconsin (+820),
Ohio (+806), Pennsylvania (+724), and Washington (+399). Meanwhile, the largest decreases were in Texas (-1,396), New
York (-1,185), North Dakota (-919), California (-833), and Indiana (-796).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Euro remains boxed in ahead of the ECB later
• Gold Technical Analysis – Can’t get out of this range
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• BOJ’s Tamura says pace of rate hikes is likely to be slow
• BOJ’s Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-end
• Spain August final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
• China reportedly to cut interest rates on $5 trillion mortgages as soon as this month
• US housing costs rose last year but rent burden was unchanged – Census

Markets:

• AUD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 3.670%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,516.57
• WTI crude up 1.7% to $68.45
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $58,057

It was a quieter session as markets are lacking any real follow through after the US CPI report yesterday.

The inflation numbers pretty much affirm a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week and that’s keeping things in check so far on the week.

The dollar remains steady on the day, keeping little changed against the rest of the major currencies bloc. USD/JPY did work its way up to clip 143.00 briefly but is now back down to near flat levels around 142.40-50.

Besides that, the euro remains caged in with large option expiries in EUR/USD not allowing much breathing room until we get to the ECB later.

Even then, the 25 bps rate cut that will come from the ECB is already well telegraphed. So, there should not be any major price movements involving euro assets unless Lagarde steps wrongly.

In the equities space, we are seeing a calmer mood as well with US futures mildly higher. European indices are playing a little bit of catch up to Wall Street gains overnight. As for the bond market, things are calmer today as the bid in bonds is subsiding a fair bit. 2-year Treasury yields are now back up to 3.66%, backing off after testing its 2023 lows near 3.55% yesterday.

All eyes now are on the ECB and more US data to come on the day. The latter will feature the weekly initial jobless claims and PPI data. So, that will keep markets interested going into North America trading later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In FX, the changes are light overall with dollar pairs keeping in relatively narrow ranges thus far today. The euro is in focus amid the ECB later but there shouldn’t be any real surprises from the decision itself. EUR/USD is trapped today in a 17 pips range and understandably so. The pair has very large option expiries in play as highlighted here earlier.

The rest of the major currencies bloc is also not up to much. USD/JPY briefly clipped 143.00 earlier in the session but is now up just 0.2% to 142.66 on the day. Besides that, the changes elsewhere are leaving a lot to be desired.

This comes as the overall market mood is steadier with the bid in bonds earlier this week subsiding. US futures are up slightly still while 10-year Treasury yields are also up 2.5 bps to 3.677% currently.

Besides the ECB, there will be some US data releases to work with later in the day as well. The weekly initial jobless claims and PPI data are ones to watch as well in US trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The IEA kept their forecasts for global oil demand broadly unchanged, seen at 900k bpd this year and 950k bpd for next year. That said, these numbers are way more pessimistic than other forecasters. That especially when you compare to OPEC, as seen here, even with their latest adjustments lower.

In keeping with their forecast, IEA warns that oil demand growth is “slowing sharply” and it owes much to China’s economic growth slowing down. In their report, they highlighted how Chinese demand contracted for a fourth straight month and that Beijing’s oil imports have fallen to the lowest in almost two years.

As such, that will continue to be a downside risk for oil prices looking into the year ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This is mainly to further reduce borrowing costs and to try and bolster consumption activity. Domestic demand conditions in China have suffered greatly ever since the Covid pandemic and there hasn’t been much of a revival in that area despite the world returning back to normal.

The report says that some banks are already making final preparations for the adjustments on mortgage rates. And the change could go into effect as early as some this month. According to one of the sources, some homeowners may enjoy up to 50 bps of immediate rate reduction.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +1.2%
• Germany DAX +1.1%
• France CAC 40 +1.0%
• UK FTSE +1.1%
• Spain IBEX +1.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +1.0%

This comes with US futures also sitting higher on the day, with S&P 500 future up 0.2% currently. After a bit of a setback so far in September, the bounce today is most welcome for European indices. But we’ll see if that can carry through as the attention turns towards key central bank decisions in the coming week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.8%
• HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.9%

Core annual inflation is seen easing slightly again to 2.7% at least. That is down from 2.8% in July but still not quite there yet in terms of solidifying a base closer towards the 2% mark. It’s a slow grind and not just for Spain but most of the other countries in the euro area as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex Dividend 13/09/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• German DAX futures +1.0%
• UK FTSE futures +1.1%

European indices observed a mixed close yesterday but are now having to play catch up a little to the gains in Wall Street. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday, so the gains might not be too prominent in Europe as a whole. But US futures are also sitting a little higher today, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.4%, and Dow futures up 0.2% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• No preset idea on the pace of further rate hikes
• But unlike US and Europe, rate hikes are likely to be slow for Japan
• Exact timing on when rates can reach 1% will depend on economic, price conditions at the time
• Data so far shows economy moving in line with forecast from July meeting

Tamura earlier called to push short-term rates to 1% by the fiscal year 2026 here. But he is toning that down a little, it would seem. Anyway, he is dubbed as the most hawkish among the board members at the BOJ. So, there is that to consider when viewing his policy remarks.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.43%, Shanghai Composite up 0.22%, Hang Seng up 1.18% ASX up 0.98%
• Commodities : Gold at $2545.35 (0.14%), Silver at $29.19 (0.61%), Brent Oil at $71.20 (0.89%), WTI Oil at $67.8 (0.78%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.667, UK 10-year yield at 3.762, Germany 10-year yield at 2.098

News & Data:

• (USD) Core CPI m/m  0.3% vs 0.2% expected
• (USD) CPI m/m  0.2% vs 0.2% expected
• (USD) CPI y/y  2.5%  vs 2.5% expected

Markets Update:

.Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Thursday, following Wall Street’s tech-driven rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 3.41%, and Taiwan’s Weighted Index rose 3%. Semiconductor-related stocks led the charge, with Tokyo Electron up 4.8%, Advantest up 9%, and Renesas Electronics climbing 3.47%. SoftBank Group, which holds a stake in chip designer Arm, jumped 8.4%.

In South Korea, the Kospi rose 1.67% while the Kosdaq gained 3%. Major chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics soared over 8% and 1.85%, respectively. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company advanced 5.13%, and Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) gained 4.13%.These gains came after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted strong demand for AI chips. Shares of Seven & i Holdings surged 7.3% after Bloomberg reported that Alimentation Couche-Tard may increase its bid for the Japanese retailer. However, Couche-Tard has yet to finalize its decision.

On the economic front, Japan’s producer price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s producer price index and India’s August consumer price index are expected later today.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged up 1%. Overnight, the S&P 500 gained 1.07%, the Nasdaq rose 2.17%, and the Dow Jones inched up 0.31%. Investors are now eyeing the U.S. producer price index release.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 12th September 2024: Asia-Pacific Markets Surge Amid Tech Rally and Economic Data Releases first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.