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The day might be spent digesting the European Central Bank decision and spitballing the FOMC one.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nick Timiraos from the WSJ has tweeted that economists who map the CPI and PPI to the core PCE, are forecasting a rise of 0.13% to 0.17% for the August PCE. A reading of 0.13% would round to 0.1%, while 0.17% would round up to 0.2%.

In either case (0.1% or 0.2%), it extends a streak of mild/target consistent readings.

As a point of comparison, the core CPI released earlier this week came in at 0.3% (0.281% unrounded).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Financial Times has published a fascinating article about Gary Stevenson, a former Citibank trader who boldly claims to have been the best trader in the world. The piece, titled “Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree”, is available to read in full without a paywall – click HERE to access it.

Stevenson asserts that he made $35 million in a single year, earning him the self-anointed title of Citibank’s most profitable trader globally. His unapologetic and colorful language, reminiscent of a true East Ender, has contributed to the success of his bestselling book “The Trading Game”. With his rags-to-riches story, which involves high-stakes drama and hubris on the trading floor, a movie adaptation à la “Liar’s Poker” or “The Wolf of Wall Street” doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Stevenson’s story is one of unbridled ambition but also controversy especially among his peers at Citibank, making for a captivating read. As the son of a postal worker from East London, his journey to becoming a trading sensation is a true tale of grit and determination, and also brashness.

But what led him to walk away from it all?

The article offers a glimpse into the life of the self described trading legend. The book likely goes much deeper. Both are likely definitely worth a read.

The back story problem from his book comes from his self-annoited title as the best trader in the world?

$35M is a nice sum but it is not really a lot in the trading world. Making $35M on the trading floor can mean different things dependent on the job, and what are the “natural flows” from the natural business. That is, what is made by just turning on the lights each day and having the flows from the market making to the banks vast customer base. .

The story outlines views from some who worked with Mr. Stevenson and who question his “best trader in the world” title. According to those collegues, he wasn’t even one of the top traders at Citibank let alone in the world.

The article has added interest to me as I also worked for Citigroup, London but a number of decades earlier (from 1990 to 1994 to be exact). I was also part of the same STIRT desk (Short Term Interest Rate Trading desk). i could be wrong – just as this article seems to suggest Mr. Stevenson has lapses in his memory from just a few years ago – but I am pretty sure the STIRT acronym was “born” when I was there.

Back then, the stakes seemed to be a little less on the STIRT trading desk, especially in relation to the action on the spot foreign exchange trading desk. However, so was the size and scope of the bank. I googled Citigroup’s 1990 revenue and they came in at $5.182 billion for 1990. The 2023 full-year revenue was $78.5B .

Recalling my time there I made $3 – $5 million. I traded and quoted prices in Short term interest rate derivatives which was comprised of Forward Rate Agreements (or FRA’s) and short term interest rate swaps (less than 1 year).

Comparing my $3 to $5 to his $35M seems quite a spread, but total revenues was also much lower in 1990 vs 2023 as well . As time goes by, numbers go higher.and higher and higher.

Anyway, when I was there, the big money was made on the forex spot desk. They also had “the flows”. It was the most interesting place I worked and was made of the best management. It was a well oiled machine under the leadership of Julian SImmonds (seen on the spot forex desk below), Guy Whittaker,, Nick Beecroft and a slew of top-notch traders.

I am intrigued to read the book and if the movie is made, will be interested in seeing it as well, even if it is more fiction vs non-fiction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A Reuters/IPSOS poll after the debate shows:

• Harris 47% . Trump 42%
• Among registered voters who heard at least something about Tuesday’s presidential debate, 53% said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won
• Asked which of the two stumbled and it didn’t appear sharp, Trump was the pick of 52% percent of voters familiar with the debate compared to 21% who said Harris

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury auctioned off $58 billion of the 30 year bonds.

High yield: 4.015%

• Previous 4.314%
• six-month average 4.460%

WI level at the time of the auction: 4.001%

Tail: 1.4 bps

• Previous: 3.1 basis points
• 6-month average: 0.3 basis points

Bid to Cover: 2.38X

• Previous: 2.31X
• 6-month average: 2.39X

Dealers: 15.7%

• Previous: 19.2%
• 6-month average: 15.9%

Directs: 15.7%

• Previous: 15.5%
• 6-month average: 18.6%

Indirects: 68.68%

• Previous: 65.3%
• 6-month average: 65.5%

AUCTION GRADE: D+

The 30 year bond auction was not as successful as the three and 10 year coupon auctions earlier this week.

• There was a positive tail of 1.4 basis points. The only good about that is last month it was a 3.1 basis points
• The bid to cover was on par with the 6 month average
• The Dealers were saddled with the average as well.
• Domestic demand was less than the average
• International demand was above the average providing some positive.

The grade is below average but last month was much worse.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing higher in the day led by Spain’s Ibex which is higher by 1.08% today:

• German DAX, +0.97%
• France’s CAC +0.52%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.57%
• Spain’s Ibex +1.08%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.84%

As London/European traders head for the exits, US indices are mixed:

• The Dow industrial average is down -42.3 points or -0.10% and 40818.02
• S&P index +1.91 points or 0.04% at 5556.86
• NASDAQ index up 40.73 points or 0.24% in 17437.43

The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 18.41 points or 0.88% at 2122.28.

Gold is surging by $42.80 or 1.71% at $2554.13. Early today, the price moved above a ceiling area between $2526 in $2531. That area is now close risk for buyers as the price breaks to all-time record highs.

Crude oil is rebounding to the upside trading up $2.15 or 3.19% at $69.47.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The August US budget deficit data was released early. It was expected later this afternoon.

• US August 2024 budget deficit $-380 billion versus $-317.3 billion estimate
• August 2023 surplus was $89 billion
• Fiscal 2024 year-to-date deficit $1.897 trillion versus comparable fiscal 2023 of $1.525 billion deficit.
• US August budget outlays $687 billion versus $194 billion in August 2023. Big increase in outlays.
• Receipt came in at $307 billion versus $283 billion in August 2023. Modest increases.
• Interest costs on public that top $1 trillion for the first time for 2024 fiscal year to date.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading modestly higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow industrial average is up 32.49 points or 0.08% at 40894.20
• S&P index is up 1.49 points or 0.03% at 5555.62
• NASDAQ index is up 30 points or 0.10% at 17425

The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 11.22 points or 0.53% at 2115.07

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Dow industrial average futures implying a gain of 28.25
• S&P futures implying a gain of +3.62 points
• NASDAQ futures implying a decline of -12.1 points.

Yesterday the NASDAQ index led the gains with a rise of 2.17%. The S&P index rose 1.07%.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are up by about 1 to 2 basis points across the curve:

• 2 year yield 3.660%, +1.4 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.460%, +1.4 basis points.
• 10 year yield 3.670%, +1.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 3.985%, +2.3 basis points

In other markets:

• crude oil is trading up $1.10 at $68.41, and
• bitcoin is up $356 and $57,698
• Gold is trading to a new record high reaching a level of $2542.45. The current price is up $27 at $2537.98.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -13.9% revised to -13.0%
• Building permits 22.1% vs +7.1% estimate

Building permits can swing back and forth. It is hard to make judgments when the changes are double digit one way and the other. The good news is that there does need to be more housing in Canada (Adam harps on that). So the increase is welcomed.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.