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An incredible attack occurred in Lebanon today with 2800 members of Hezbollah and other Iranian-linked individuals wounded and 200 in critical condition.

The pagers they were using exploded at the same time in what was surely some kind of long-planned attack.

Hezbollah had been using cell phones to coordinate but evidently switched to pagers due to phone security risks. However the pagers must have been intercepted with small explosives placed inside.

It’s perhaps the greatest-ever example of a technological, targeted attack. It’s also some Black Mirror-level stuff.

Lebanon’s heath authority said so far 8 people are confirmed dead.

Here is a video of one of the explosions.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A miss for the data – but do note this is a choppy data series.

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The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series

• its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan trade data for August 2024 … dreadful misses for both exports and imports.

The ‘adjusted’ trade balance (not shown in the screen shot above) is -0.6tln yen

• expected -0.96tln
• prior -0.76tln yen

Exports to:

• China +5.2% y/y
• the EU -8.1% y/y
• the US -0.7% y/y

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a Hong Kong public holiday for the day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival

• Hong Kong Market is closed
• Both Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect trading is closed

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China / Hong Kong Stock Connect is a mutual market access program that allows investors in mainland China and Hong Kong to trade and invest in each other’s stock markets. This initiative aims to facilitate cross-border trading, broadening market access for international investors and providing more liquidity to both markets. Here’s a breakdown:

1. Two Main Programs:

   • Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (launched in 2014): Connects the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).
   • Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (launched in 2016): Connects the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) with HKEX.

2. Northbound Trading: Allows international and Hong Kong investors to buy eligible shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges through the HKEX.

3. Southbound Trading: Enables mainland Chinese investors to trade eligible shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through the SSE or SZSE.

4. Quota Systems: The program initially had daily and aggregate quotas for trading to ensure controlled market access, though the aggregate quota was later removed in 2018. Daily quotas still limit the amount of money that can flow in and out each day.

   In summary:

   • Provides foreign investors access to China’s A-share market.
   • Allows mainland Chinese investors to diversify their portfolio with Hong Kong-listed stocks.
   • Promotes market integration and opens up new opportunities for both retail and institutional investors.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD not showing much response. Currently up a few wee tics around 0.6189.

The data focus for the week is Q2 GDP due Thursday local NZ time.

The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like overseas aid and remittances.

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More on the “current account”

• refers to a component of a country’s balance of payments that measures the flow of goods, services, investment income, and unilateral transfers (such as remittances and foreign aid) between the country and the rest of the world.
• The current account is divided into several categories:
• Trade Balance: The value of exported goods minus the value of imported goods.
• Net Exports/Imports of Services: Such as tourism, software services, etc.
• Net Investment Income: Includes income from assets held overseas, such as dividends and interest, minus similar payments made to foreign investors who own assets in the country.
• Unilateral Transfers: Transfers that don’t involve a quid pro quo, such as remittances, foreign aid, grants, etc.
• A positive current account balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, effectively lending to the rest of the world. Conversely, a negative current account balance means that a country is importing more than it is exporting and is thus borrowing from other countries. The current account, together with the capital and financial accounts, make up a country’s balance of payments, providing a comprehensive view of a country’s economic transactions with the rest of the world.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese Coast Guard give an alert to North Korea firing what could be a ballistic missile.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters citing an unnamed source:

• US administration will seek up to 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• will announce the solicitation as soon as Wednesday to buy oil for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana
• for delivery in the first few months of 2025
• Department of Energy target price is $79.99 per barrel, oil is currently trading below this

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This data point tends not to shift NZD/USD around much at all upon release.

More data yet to come from NZ:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US August retail sales control group +0.3% versus +0.3% expected
• Canada August CPI 2.0% vs 2.1% expected
• US September NAHB home builder sentiment 41 vs 40 expected
• US July business inventories 0.4% versus 0.3% expected
• US August industrial production +0.8% vs +0.2% expected
• US treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.039%
• Canada August housing starts 217.4K vs 252.5K expected
• ECB’s Villeroy: French goal to cut deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027 is not realistic
• WSJ: JPMorgan in talks with Apple for credit card business
• Goldman Sachs raises its estimate for Q3 growth to 2.8%
• Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow 3.0% vs 2.5% prior
• Lebanese says about 2,800 injured, including 200 in critical condition, in pager bombings
• Israel preparing for a war with Hezbollah
• New Zealand GDT price index +0.8%
• Timiraos: Fed faces a finely-balanced choice over whether to cut
• FOMC preview: Why the dot plot isn’t helping anyone

Markets:

• Gold down $14 to $2568
• US 10-year yields up 2.6 bps to 3.65%
• WTI crude up $1.26 to $71.37
• S&P 500 up 0.1% in 7th straight day of gains
• AUD and USD lead, JPY lags

The US dollar was modestly bid on most fronts on Tuesday as we near the FOMC decision. The catalyst was a slightly stronger retail sales report that further clouds the 50 vs 25 basis point debate. Pricing is at 65% for 50 bps, which was stable today but yields rose and so did the dollar.

The euro fell to 1.1120 from 1.1140 while the pound fell to 1.3160 from 1.3200. The antipodeans also lost ground but some of that was compounded by a retracement in stock markets. S&P 500 futures had been higher but the index ultimately fell flat and briefly traded with decent losses.

The big move on the day was in USD/JPY, which continues to be the main event in 2024. That pair jumped to 142.27 from 140.50 in the second day of strong US bids. It looks to be closing on the highs and tracing out a three-candle reversal as traders settle dollar shorts ahead of the Fed decision.

USD/CAD briefly jumped on lower Canadian CPI and the prospect of a 50 bps cut in October. That is now closer to a 50/50 proposition but after a brief surge the pair retraced to nearly unchanged on the day. Macklem put most of the onus on growth numbers to support faster easing and good US numbers could be raising the idea that Canada will muddle along.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices are closing with mixed but modest changes.

The S&P did trade to a new record intraday high level, above 5669,. but stalled just above that level at 5670.81. The buyers turned to sellers. After trading negative into the last hour of trading, buying at the close pushed the index higher. The index closed in positive territory for the 7th consecutive day but it was only by 0.03%.

The Dow- also traded to a new intraday all time high – but closed lower on the day.

The Nasdaq was up 189 points at session highs but is closing up by 35.93 points.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell as 15.90 points or -0.04% at 41606.18
• S&P index rose 1.49 points or 0.03% at 5634.58
• NASDAQ index rose 38.93 points or 0.20% at 17628.06

The small-cap Russell 2000 did the best. It rose 16.30 points or 0.74% at 2205.47.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is plenty top come on the data agenda but none of it is higher-tier. Note that mainland Chinese markets reopen today after holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Hong Kong is closed today.

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.