Articles

• The AUD and NZD continues to lead the majors on the upside
• US sees limited scope for nuclear talks with China
• Equity futures putting in a solid run so far today
• Eurozone economic sentiment 96.6 vs 95.8 expected
• China’s Xi says committed to stable relationship with US based on win-win cooperation
• Rate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the German statewide CPI data
• EURUSD trades back below 1.11 after German statewide CPI
• German Bayern YY 2.1% vs 2.5% prior
• Remy Cointreau Pernod Ricard shares surge 8% after China skips brandy tariffs
• China’s Commerce Ministry opts against anti-dumping measures on EU brandy
• Riksbank’s Bunge says economy is in a mild recession
• Spanish flash HICP YY 2.4% vs 2.5% expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• Swedish GDP YY 0.5% vs 0.0% expected
• Ukraine strikes oil and artillery depots in Rostov Kirov and Voronezh regions
• Japan consumer confidence index 36.7 vs 36.7 prior
• Risk sentiment leaning slightly positive head of the cash open
• NZDUSD tests close to 0.63 after earlier NZ data
• Finally a day with a bit more excitement on the calendar

Markets:

• NZD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.18%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.829%
• Gold up 0.75% to $2,522
• WTI
  crude up 0.32% to $74.76
• Bitcoin
  up 1.63% to $60,005

It was a more lively session today with some notable moves in the FX and equity markets. The EUR has been the most notable mover in the FX space as the single currency fell on soft German statewide CPI figures. Note though, that the market’s pricing for ECB rates was unchanged.

In the equity space, we’ve seen the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq erasing most of yesterday’s weakness although the lack of catalysts will likely keep the price action rangebound until next week.

Overall though, there wasn’t any notable news release or development in the macro or geopolitical space and we keep waiting for next week where we will get many top-tier economic data including the NFP report.

The attention will now switch to the US jobless claims figures where we will likely need initial claims to spike above the 260K level to trigger a big market reaction.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD and AUD continues to be the best performers so far today.

For the NZD the upside was sparked by the solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook which printed at the highest since 2014. For the AUD the strength looks more driven by overall risk sentiment with the upside in equities likely offering some support.

In terms of the underperformers, the EUR was pressured following a decent deceleration in German statewide CPI data, with 5 of the 6 states printing new cycle lows for CPI.

Looking ahead attention will turn to US data with the release of Q2 GDP 2nd estimate as well as the weekly jobless claims data.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• Exclusive-U.S. sees a ‘limited opportunity’ to restart nuclear policy dialogue with China -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-U.S. seeks arms talks with China focused on nuclear doctrine, strategic warning, risk reduction -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-Asked about missile deployment, U.S. official says any decision to deploy new capabilities to support Philippines will be informed by actions they see from China.
• Exclusive-U.S. officials have privately told China that interference in U.S. elections ‘would be intolerable’ -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-On China tariffs, U.S. official says they expect to ‘follow through on our intentions’

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Equity futures have continued to grind higher throughout the session, with the NQ and ES both up around half a percent, despite the push lower last night after Nvidia earnings.

The best performers so far has been the Hang Seng, EU50 and Nikkei who are all up over 1% on the session so far.

News flow has been very light and catalysts are thin at the moment.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/08/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/08/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Eurozone economic sentiment: 96 vs 95.8 expected

Eurozone industrial sentiment: vs -10.6 expected

Eurozone services sentiment: vs 5.2 expected

Eurozone consumer confidence final: vs -13.4 expected

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• China’s Xi meets with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan in Beijing.
• China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: In this changing and turbulent world countries need solidarity and coordination, not exclusion or regress.
• China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: China is committed to a stable relationship based on win-win cooperation.
• China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: In my statements on various occasions and my meetings with successive U.S. presidents, I have always expressed this view.
• China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: We hope that the US will work in the same direction as China.
• China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Hope U.S. will see Chinese development as ‘possibility not a challenge’ and work to get along.
• Beijing- U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, in meeting with China’s Xi: President Biden is committed to managing this relationship and to make sure competition does not lead to conflict.
• Beijing- U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, in meeting with China’s Xi: We are committed to maintaining high-level diplomacy.
• Beijing- U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, in meeting with China’s Xi: Biden looks forward to engaging with you in the coming weeks.

• China’s Xi in meeting with US National Security Advisor: Hope U.S. will move in the same direction as China, look at China and its development in a positive and rational manner.
• China’s Xi in meeting with US National Security Advisor: As two major countries, China and the US should be responsible to history, people, and the world.
• China’s Xi in meeting with US National Security Advisor: China and US should become a source of stability for world peace and a propeller for common development.
• China’s Xi in meeting with US National Security Advisor: Hope China and U.S. can regard each other’s development as an opportunity rather than a challenge.
• China’s Xi in meeting with US National Security Advisor: China’s commitment to the stable, sound, and sustainable development of China-US relations remains unchanged

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Probability of a September ECB cut has increased to 100% from 99.4% prior to the data, while the odds of an October cut has only moved to 64% from 61% prior to the data. I think that deceleration should have seen a bigger bet on an October cut as well, but money markets have had a relatively mild response to the data for now.

Using a very simple composite measure it should put the total German CPI YY print close to 1.9%(ish). market expectations were for a print of 2.1%.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD trades back below the 1.11 handle after a big deceleration in German statewide CPI data.

Out of the 6 statewide releases, 5 of them printed new cycle lows, the only one that didn’t print with a new cycle low was Sachsen.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Q2

• EPS: $0.68 versus $0.64 estimate. Last year $0.27 last year.
• Revenue: $30.04 billion vs $28.5 billion estimate. Last year $13.51 billion
• Data center: $26.3 billion versus $25.08 billion estimate
• Adjusted gross margins and 75.7% versus 75.5% expected
• R&D expenses $3.09 billion versus $3.08 billion expected
• Adjusted operating expenses $2.79 billion versus expected $2.81 billion
• Adjusted operating income $19.94 billion versus $18.85 billion expected

October-Quarter Forecast:

• Revenue Pre-release guidance estimate $31.7 billion (about 77% annual growth) The actual forward guidance estimate comes in higher at $32.5 billion
• The gross margin next quarter is expected at 75.5%.. The company says that gross margins expected to be in the mid 70% range.
• Company says that fiscal year operating expenses expected to grow in the mid to upper 40% range

Nvidia announced a $50 billion repurchase of shares.

In other details:

• Blackwell samples are shipping to partners and customers.
• Hopper demands remain strong
• Anticipation for Blackwell is “incredible”.
• Blackwell is scheduled to begin in Q4 and continue into fiscal year 2026

Shares have traded down as much as 7– 8%, and also higher by 2% -3%.

Nvidia closed at $125.61 with a trading range of $122.64 up to $128.33.

The trading range since peaking at $140.76 on June 20, reached a low price on August 5 of $90.69. The high price on Monday reached $131.26. The high close on the run higher from August 5 low reached $130 on August 19.

All seems good except perhaps some concerns on the ramp up of the Blackwell chip. Focus turns to the earnings call which is scheduled to begin at 5 PM ET.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Germany Sachsen state CPI YY: vs 3.1% expected

Germany Bayern state CPI YY: 2.1% vs 2.5% expected

Germany Brandenburg state CPI YY: vs 2.6% expected

German Hessen state CPI YY: vs 1.8% expected

German Baden-Wuerttemberg state CPI MYY: vs 2.1% expected

German Nordrhine state CPI YY: vs 2.3% expected

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.