Dell announced their earnings after the close and beat on the top and bottom lines:

• EPS $1.89 versus $1.71 expected
• Revenues $25.03 billion versus $24.14 billion expected

Dell shares closed at $110.74 and are trading higher by $7.10 or 6.41% at $117.85.

Dell shares traded as high as $114.44 intraday and as low as $108.10. At session lows, the price tested its key 200-day moving average at $108.02 and found willing buyers (it closed at $110.74)

With the price now trading near $118, the price is moving away from that 200 day moving average. On the top side, the 100 day moving average comes in at $127.51.

Going back to July 17, the price gapped below that 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) and stayed below that moving average. Getting back above the moving average is still needed to increase the bullish bias going forward.

In other earnings after the close:

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Q2 2024:

• EPS: $5.30 vs. $5.47 (expected) – MISSED
• Revenue: $2.6 billion vs. $2.61 billion (expected) – MISSED

Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) Q2 2024:

• EPS: $3.15 vs. $2.93 (expected) – BEAT
• Revenue: $2.37 billion vs. $2.41 billion (expected) – MISSED

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) Q2 2024:

• Adj. EPS: $0.30 vs. $0.29 (expected) – BEAT
• Revenue: $1.272 billion vs. $1.25 billion (expected) – BEAT

Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Q2 2024:

• EPS: $2.15 vs. $2.00 (expected) – BEAT
• Revenue: $1.50 billion vs. $1.48 billion (expected) – BEAT

More from Dell: It expects solid topline growth in H2 of the year. It is applying AI and beginning to realize benefits across its own a business.

So the business that provides the computers for AI, are using AI to benefit it’s business in the process.

Shares of Dell are now trading at $119.10 up $8.36 or 2.55%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japan housing starts YY: -0.2% vs -0.1% expected

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan construction orders YY: 62.8% vs -19.7% prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

USD inflows:

• The bank expects rebalancing flows to favor the USD, driven primarily by the need to shift out of overperforming EUR-denominated assets and into USD assets. Despite the broader trend of USD depreciation observed recently, the near-term flows are expected to support the Dollar, potentially mitigating some of the recent downside pressure.

EUR outflows:

• The bank is looking for EUR outflows as rebalancing flows are expected to move out of Eurozone assets, particularly given the relative outperformance of European bonds compared to their US counterparts.

These reports are useful to keep in mind but I never use them as a signal or trigger. The downside in the EUR yesterday was driven by the fall in German CPI, and the bounce in the USD driven by mostly stretched price action and the better-than-expected data. However, since this is the official last day for rebalancing, it’s worth watching the price action with the above in mind at the 4PM London Fix.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are dragging down the broader indexes as they fall 5.4% to the lowest in regular trading. NVDA is down $6.65 to $118.95 as the market (and the options market) continues to digest yesterday’s earnings report.

A host of analysts have boosted price targets since the release but the market hasn’t cooperated. There was some brief buying rigth at the market open but the trend has been lower since and accelerated in the past 30 minutes on a break below $120.

The post-market low yesterday was $115.01.

The drop in Nvidia shares coincides with a decline in the broader market after some strong buys earlier. The S&P 500 is now up 17 poitns to 5609 after rising as high as 5646 early in the US afternoon.

The FX market has largely ignored these latest moves.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance

Pivot: 100.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a strong area where the price might find buying interest.

1st support: 100.54
Supporting reasons: Marked by a multi-swing low support, indicating a significant level where previous declines have halted.

1st resistance: 102.15
Supporting reasons: Noted as a pullback resistance, supported by a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where the price might encounter selling pressure.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1103
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where the price might face selling pressure.

1st support: 1.1007
Supporting reasons: Marked as pullback support, supported by the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant level where the price may find buying interest.

1st resistance: 1.1194
Supporting reasons: Noted as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have encountered resistance.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support level.

1st support: 159.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, aligned with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where price could find support during a decline.

1st resistance: 164.05
Supporting reasons: Marked as an overlap resistance, suggesting a level where the price might face resistance if it attempts to rise.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and head towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price might find support and reverse to the upside.

1st support: 0.8384
Supporting reasons: Marked as pullback support, suggesting a level where the price could stabilize during a downturn.

1st resistance: 0.8054
Supporting reasons: Identified as pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where upward movement might encounter selling pressure.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3217
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting a potential area where the price might encounter selling pressure.

1st support: 1.313
Supporting reasons: Marked as pullback support, reinforced by the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a level where the price may find buying interest.

1st resistance: 1.3267
Supporting reasons: Noted as a swing high resistance, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced resistance.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.

1st support: 189.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, which could act as a stabilizing point for the price during a decline.

1st resistance: 193.26
Supporting reasons: Marked as swing high resistance, suggesting a potential area where the price might face selling pressure or reversal if it moves upward.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8443
Supporting reasons: Identified as pullback support, indicating a level where the price has previously found buying interest after a decline.

1st support: 0.8399
Supporting reasons: Marked as swing low support, suggesting a key area where the price has historically reversed upward after reaching a low.

1st resistance: 0.8533
Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap resistance, indicating a significant level where previous upward movements have encountered selling pressure.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 143.45
Supporting reasons: Supported by multi-swing low support and the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a strong area where buyers might step in.

1st support: 141.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a key level where previous declines have stabilized.

1st resistance: 146.66

Supporting reasons: Marked by an overlap resistance, and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a significant level where upward movement may face selling pressure.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall lower towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3486
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the descending trendline add further significance to this resistance zone.

1st support: 1.3433
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.

1st resistance: 1.3561
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this resistance zone.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6813
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6754
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where price has recently found support. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st resistance: 0.6859
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6295
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6192
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where price could find support. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st resistance: 0.6357
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 41,188.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st Support: 40,883.50

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting an area where price has found support recently. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st Resistance: 41,590.34

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 18,933.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, suggesting a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st Support: 18,727.90

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could find support. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st Resistance: 19,229.79

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,561.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of this support zone.

1st support: 5,496.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where price could find support.

1st resistance: 5,669.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a critical area that could halt further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 57,039.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound. 

1st support: 54,351.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement indicating a significant area where price has found support in the past.

1st resistance: 61,687.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2,436.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st Support: 2,289.04

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could find support.

1st Resistance: 2,799.15

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a historical barrier where that could halt further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 77.57

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st Support: 74.79

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price has found support recently.

1st Resistance: 78.50

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.

Pivot: 2529.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a key level where price has previously reversed or encountered significant selling pressure.

1st support: 2473.30
Supporting reasons: Marked as pullback support, suggesting a crucial area where price might find support after a decline.

1st resistance: 2551.41
Supporting reasons: Supported by the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a strong resistance level where the price may struggle to break through

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The post Friday 30th August 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 August 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. economy grew 3.0% YoY in the second quarter of 2024, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 2.8%. Thai upward revision was primarily due to increased consumer spending, private inventory investment and non-residential fixed investment. Along with unemployment claims trending lower for the fourth consecutive week, this was a robust set of macroeconomic data for the world’s largest economy.

The dollar index (DXY) was hovering around 101.20 prior to the release of these data points but it swiftly surged past 101.50 to hit an overnight high of 101.57. Demand for the greenback has returned this week but with the PCE Price Index due for release later during the U.S. session, we could see the gains being limited on the final trading day of the week.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly jumped higher to increase 2.4% YoY in August, exceeding markets forecasts of a 2.2% rise, to mark the fourth consecutive month of accelerating prices. The latest reading was also the highest in six months and will reinforce the Bank of Japan’s hawkish outlook on future monetary policy actions. The yen strengthened following this news release as USD/JPY reversed from 145 to fall and dropped as low as 144.65.

Retail sales have grown steadily over the past three months with sales rising 0.5% MoM in June. July’s estimate of a 0.3%-increase points to a fourth consecutive month of higher sales. Should we see a higher than anticipated increase in consumer spending, it could function as a bullish catalyst for the Aussie this morning.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – has moderated lower since April on an annualised basis with headline and core PCE easing to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively YoY in June. Since headline and core CPI both eased further in July, we can also expect a similar result for July’s PCE price index. Further dissipation of inflationary pressures is likely to weigh on the dollar during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – has moderated lower since April on an annualised basis with headline and core PCE easing to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively YoY in June. Since headline and core CPI both eased further in July, we can also expect a similar result for July’s PCE price index. Further dissipation of inflationary pressures is likely to weigh on the dollar and potentially lift gold prices during the U.S. session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Retail sales have grown steadily over the past three months with sales rising 0.5% MoM in June. July’s estimate of a 0.3%-increase points to a fourth consecutive month of higher sales. Should we see a higher than anticipated increase in consumer spending, it could function as a bullish catalyst for the Aussie this morning.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it still remains above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
• The CPI rose by 3.9% over the year to the June quarter, demonstrating that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters while quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
• The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in late 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought.
• Momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. In addition, there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
• Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range while recent data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and will rely upon the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
• Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Despite stronger-than-anticipated U.S. macroeconomic data, the Kiwi was resilient overnight. This currency pair pulled back slightly before stabilizing around 0.6250 before climbing higher towards 0.6275 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6200

Resistance: 0.6300

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25% in August as inflation converges on target.
• The Committee is confident that inflation is returning to within its 1-3% target band as surveyed inflation expectations, firms’ pricing behaviour, headline inflation, and a variety of core inflation measures are moving consistent with low and stable inflation.
• Economic growth remains below trend and inflation is declining across advanced economies – imported inflation into New Zealand has declined to be more consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
• Services inflation remains elevated but is also expected to continue to decline, both at home and abroad, in line with increased spare economic capacity.
• Consumer price inflation in New Zealand is expected to remain near the target mid-point over the foreseeable future.
• A broad range of high-frequency indicators point to a material weakening in domestic economic activity in recent months – these include various survey measures of business activity, electronic card transactions, vehicle traffic, house sales, filled jobs, and job vacancies; these indicators collectively provide a consistent signal that the economy contracted in recent months.
• The pace of further easing will depend on the Committee’s confidence that pricing behaviour remains consistent with a low inflation environment, and that inflation expectations are anchored around the 2% target.
• Next meeting is on 9 October 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 29th August)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly jumped higher to increase 2.4% YoY in August, exceeding markets forecasts of a 2.2% rise, to mark the fourth consecutive month of accelerating prices. The latest reading was also the highest in six months and will reinforce the Bank of Japan’s hawkish outlook on future monetary policy actions. The yen strengthened following this news release as USD/JPY reversed from 145 to fall and dropped as low as 144.65.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period and decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25% while reducing its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by a unanimous vote.
  2. The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• In the second half of the projection period, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 20 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The flash CPI for the month of August is expected to show prices rising at a slower rate, especially for the headline figure. Headline CPI is expected to ease significantly from 2.6% in July down to 2.2% YoY while the core is expected to edge lower from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY. Should the flash readings indicate a much higher pace of disinflation, we could see the Euro come under pressure during the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
• Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
• While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
• The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
• Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. lifted USD/CHF yesterday as it briefly hit 0.8493 before retreating towards 0.8460 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 0.8470 as Asian markets came online and should grind higher as the day progresses- these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8400

Resistance: 0.8550

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
• The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
• The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
• Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Stronger-than-anticipated U.S. macroeconomic data nudged Cable lower overnight as it hit a low of 1.3145. This currency pair stabilized around 1.3155 before edging higher as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3085

Resistance: 1.3260

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-to-4 to reduce its Official Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 1st August 2024.
• Five members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of two from the previous meeting while four members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June but it is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures. Private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has fallen to 5.6% in the three months to May, and services consumer price inflation has declined to 5.7% in June.
• GDP has picked up quite sharply so far this year, but underlying momentum appears weaker. GDP had grown by 0.7% in 2024 Q1, with that strength appearing to have continued into Q2. Growth in the first half of the year had been stronger than expected at the time of the May Report. 
• Business surveys had continued to point to underlying growth of around 0.3% per quarter, somewhat weaker than headline GDP growth. A margin of slack should emerge in the economy as GDP falls below potential and the labour market eases further.
• The Committee noted that it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• Next meeting is on 19 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

After growing 0.3% and 0.2% MoM in April and May respectively, Canada’s economy is anticipated to rise marginally in July to increase just 0.1% MoM. Economic output appears to be stalling and a weaker reading will likely function as a headwind for the Loonie during the U.S. session – a result that could aid USD/CAD in finding a near-term floor.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
• Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
• CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
• These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
• There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
• The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
• Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
• Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude prices spiked overnight as supply concerns emanating from the Middle East, particularly in Libya, gained further traction. More than half of Libya’s oil production was offline yesterday while exports were halted at several ports due to a standoff between rival political groups in the country. After declining strongly on Tuesday and Wednesday, falling almost 3.8% over this period, WTI oil surged almost 1.6% on Thursday as it briefly jumped above $77.50 per barrel. This benchmark retreated away from this level to trade around $76.50 at the beginning of the Asia session but is expected to remain elevated to notch its first gain in three weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 August 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Gold buyers and sellers continue to battle. Ceiling is stalling the rallies.
• Australia Retail sales for July 0.0% vs 0.3% estimate
• PBOC sets the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1124 vs 7.1116 estimate
• Japan retail sales YoY for July 2.6% vs 2.9% estimate
• Japan Preliminary Industrial production MoM 2.8% vs 3.3% estimate
• Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%)
• Japan Unemployment rate for July 2.7% vs 2.5% estimate
• New Zealand building consents for July +26.2% vs -17.0% last month (revised from -13.8%)
• Geopolitics: SIrens sound in Russia’s Belgorod, Voronezh and Kursk provinces
• Kickstart the FX trading day for Aug. 30 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US second quarter GDP gets an upgrade but USD gains fade
• Dell earnings beat expectations. Price moves away from the 200 day MA.
• US equities finish near flat after a ride
• Bitcoin fails to hold gains above $60,000. Turns negative

The GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF opened the new day – and final -day of the week – between the 100 hour MAs and the 200 hour MAs and stayed within those boundaries for the fisrt 7 or so hours of the new trading day. Technically, that is about as neutral as you can get.

As the day progresses, however, traders will be watching for a break and momentum. German retail sales and GDP along with EU CPI Flash could give the major pairs a shove.

Later, US Core PCE and University of Michigan consumer sentiment will potentially provide some USD fireworks.The core PCE is a faovred inflation measure of the Fed. The Fed is set to start the easing cycle with eyes on economic data between now and the September meeting as potential catalysts for a 50 bp cut. Core PCE and the US jobs report next Friday are two economic releases that will be earmarked as important between now and then.

Nevertheless, be aware that it is the end of week which will lead into the final US and Canada summer holday (Labor Day). So things can quiet down quickly.

How is the greenback doing this week going into the final hours?

• EUR +1.02%
• JPY +0.31%
• GBP +0.33%
• CHF +0.05%
• CAD -0.13%
• AUD, -0.16%
• NZD -0.67%

The USD is mixed with a gain of 1.0% vs the EUR and a -0.67% decline vs the NZD. Recall from yesterday, the ANZ Business confidence surged to 50.2 – the highest level in 10 years.

The EURUSDs decline seemed more of a function of some technical breaks after the pair hit a nice round natural resistance target at 1.1200 on Friday last week, and again on Monday. Getting below the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA and then a swing level nare 1.1097 (call int 1.1100) were key breakss. Unlike the GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF, the EURUSD did break below and through its 100 and 200 hour MAs this week (at 1.1140 and 1.1132 respectively).Ironically (or not), the NZD – which is the strongest currency vs the USD this week – is the strongest of the major currencies today, and the EUR , which is the weakest currency vs the USD this week, is the weakest of the major currencies today. So the story for the week, continues today.

In other markets today:

• Crude oil is trading up $0.10. Prices are up 1.59% this week
• Gold is trading down eight dollars or -0.32% at $2512.49. Gold prices are near unchanged
• Btcoin is down around $300 at $59,073. Bitcoin is down over a%
• US treasury yields are unchanged to one basis point on the curve. The US two year yield is down -2.2 basis points, while the 10 year yield is up 6.2 basis points
• US e-mini S&P up 0.15%

Asian-Pacific stocks are higher:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 of 0.55%. For the week the Nikkei is up 0.54%.
• China’s Shanghai composite index up 1.34%. For the week the index is up 0.23%.
• Hong Kongs Hang Seng index up 1.76%. For the week the index is up 2.77%.
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index, up 0.43%. For the week index is up 0.70%

Looking at the major US indices for the trading week, the Dow is on pace for a positive result for the week while the S&P and NASDAQ are currently lower:

• Dow industrial average closed at a record level yesterday, is up 0.39%
• S&P index is down -0.76%
• NASDAQ index is the worst performer with a decline of -2.02%

In the European equity markets going into the last day of trading for the week, there major indices are higher:

• German DAX, +1.5%
• France’s CAC, +0.84%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.62%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.71%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.61%

Wishing you all good fortune in your trading and a happy and healthy weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sentiment is a bit mixed across markets this morning.

FX: In FX we have the JPY (safe haven) leading the pack after a better-than-expected Tokyo CPI number, with the AUD and NZD (high betas) second and third strongest. The EUR is leading the pack on the downside, most likely still due to the big deceleration we saw in German CPI yesterday.

Equities: Chinese equity benchmarks are living their best lives with the CN50 (+2.2%) and Hang Seng (+1.7%) up by a huge margin this morning. Not really seeing much in terms of catalysts for the moves though.

Commodities: Mixed for the most part with oil and copper trading in the green, while silver, gold and natgas is in the red.

Bonds: Very marginal flows with treasury yields still close to their highs for the week. Will be interesting to see how they react out of the US PCE data later on.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Another busy day on the calendar today:

EU session:

For the European session the market will be keeping a close eye on the French inflation data after the downside surprise we saw in both the Spanish and German inflation data yesterday. The EUR got a nudge lower on the data, and if the French data should show a similar drop it could spark some additional volatility for the EUR and rates markets.

US session:

For the US session, the focus will be on the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation US Core PCE.

However, we know that in the current context the Fed’s focus has shifted towards the labour side of their mandate and is less focused on inflation. So, unless we see a truly magnificent deviation I’m not sure whether today’s PCE will offer much volatility for the risk event traders like me.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Hits New Record High – Up 0.6% to 41,335

US markets experienced a mixed trading day yesterday as investors digested the latest updates from market powerhouse Nvidia. However, surprisingly strong GDP data helped propel the Dow Jones to new record levels. The Dow closed up 0.59% at a record 41,335, while tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the indices closing flat and down 0.23% respectively.

Treasury yields edged higher ahead of tonight’s key inflation number, with the 2-year yield adding 2.9 basis points to reach 3.896%, and the 10-year yield gaining 2.4 basis points, climbing to 3.862%. The dollar strengthened as well, rising 0.36% against a basket of currencies. Oil prices continued to gain ground amid ongoing supply concerns out of Libya, with Brent up 1.64% to $79.94 and WTI up 1.87% to $75.91 a barrel. Gold also saw a rise, closing the day at $2,522 an ounce.

Dollar in Focus Ahead of PCE Data

The dollar regained some ground in trading yesterday as the FX market turned its attention to today’s crucial PCE Price Index data release. This is the first of three key updates ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, where the FOMC is expected to begin cutting rates. These data points will heavily influence the extent of the Fed’s easing. The market currently favours a 25-basis point cut, but weaker data in the coming weeks could bring a 50-basis point cut back into consideration. Expectations are for a 0.2% month-on-month increase, and anything below that could see the Fed take more aggressive action, potentially pushing the dollar into lower ranges.

Busy Trading Day Ahead into the Weekend

Today is set to be a busy day for traders, with a packed macroeconomic calendar, particularly focused on inflation data. CPI figures are due from both Tokyo and the Eurozone, with the highlight being the PCE Price Index data, scheduled for release early in the New York session.

Asian markets will be closely watching the Tokyo Core CPI number, which will be released at the start of the Tokyo session, followed by Australian Retail Sales data. The European session will see the release of the key Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate before the New York market opens, with traders then turning their attention to the Core PCE Price Index. Canadian GDP figures are also due early in the day, and US data continues to flow throughout the session, with the Chicago PMI and Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports scheduled before the market close.

The post General Market Analysis – 30/08/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior 0.5%
• Retail Sales (Final) 0.0% vs 0.3% estimate

Details:

• Clothing, footwear, and personal accessories: -0.5% (largest fall)

• Department stores: -0.4%

• Cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food: -0.2%

• Household goods retailing: 0.0% (unchanged)

• Other retailing: 0.0% (unchanged)

• Food retailing: 0.2% (only industry with a rise)

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “After rises in the past two months (both by 0.5%) boosted by mid-year sales activity, the higher level of retail turnover was maintained in July.”

The AUDUSD is dipping to a new low with the rising 100 hour MA at 0.6786

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.