Articles

• July final was 66.4
• Current conditions 60.9 vs 62.7 prior
• Expectations 72.1 vs 68.8 prior
• 1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.9% prior
• 5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prior
• Overall, expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the
  five-year economic outlook (highest reading in four
  months)

Yesterday’s retail sales report was strong and Walmart executives repeatedly described a stable and resilient consumer so I have a hard time putting any weight on this survey, which is more about politics and gasoline prices than consumer spending. Along those lines, the survey noted:

With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment
for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the
Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in
the opposite direction, falling 5% this month.

The inflation numbers are stable, though still above pre-pandemic norms.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced a trip to Israel earlier this week, then postponed it, raising some questions about what was happening with ceasefire negotiations.

Now an Axios reporter reveals he will visit Israel on Sunday as part of a regional visit that will include Egypt and Qatar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It could be a big day for gold as it nears the July record high of $2483.

It just crossed through the July high of $2484 in a strong rebound from yesterday’s decline.

The next level to watch is $2500.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I’m hosting a special free webinar on Monday at 9 am ET (1300 GMT) on ‘7 Common Trading Traps and How to Avoid Them’

It’s an especially notable topic right now given the moves in the yen and equities this month. The best way to make it in markets is to stay in markets.

I’m also looking forward to a Q&A as it’s always great to touch base our community.

Register here as space is limited.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.4%
• Sales at $69.6 billion in June on declines in 17 of 21 subsectors
• Declines led by the transportation equipment (-2.9%), chemical product (-5.8%) and primary metal (-2.7%) subsectors
• Total sales fell 0.3% in the second quarter of 2024 in third consecutive quarterly decline
• Sales down 1.8% y/y
• Total inventory levels +0.1%
• Unfilled orders -0.8%

Retooling at auto factories made this look worse than it is but the longer-term numbers show a recession in that sector.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 1.353M
• Starts -6.8% vs +3.0% prior
• Building permits +1.396M vs 1.429M expected
• Permits -4.0% vs +3.9% prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 19/08/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior was 241.7K (revised to 241.6K)

This is a strong reading as the inventory of pre-sold homes and condos continues to be worked through. The problem is that the front of the pipeline has completely dried up.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY eases lower alongside bond yields on the day
• Gold takes aim at key resistance as the weekend approaches
• What are the main events for today?
• Fed’s Goolsbee: You don’t want to tighten any longer than you have to
• UK July retail sales +0.5% vs +0.5% m/m expected
• Eurozone June trade balance €22.3 billion vs €13.9 billion prior
• Never underestimate the power of US the consumer

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD and CAD lag on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 5.9 bps to 3.867%
• Gold up 0.6% to $2,469.79
• WTI crude down 2.9% to $75.86
• Bitcoin up 2.9% to $58,287

There wasn’t any major headline catalysts on the session but the dollar is giving back quite a decent chunk of its gains following the US retail sales data yesterday.

USD/JPY in particular is down over 120 pips to near the 148.00 mark, with lower bond yields weighing. 10-year Treasury yields are down nearly 6 bps to 3.867% and that is keeping the yen more bid during the session.

In the last three days, traders could look to US data for some sense of reprieve on the economic calendar. But today, they have to look to themselves to pull things back up now. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% early on but are now down 0.2% as we look to North America trading.

Going back to major currencies, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to just under 1.1000 with large option expiries keeping a lid on things there. GBP/USD is up 0.4% to 1.2905 while USD/CHF is down 0.6% to 0.8675 currently.

The dollar is struggling alongside the loonie, which is perhaps weighed down by weaker oil prices on the day. WTI crude is down nearly 3% as the rejection from $80 continues to stay the course this week.

In other commodities, gold is once again closing in on the key resistance region of $2,475-80 as buyers are teasing a breakout before the weekend comes.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is now ceding quite a bit of ground in trading today, reversing the nudge higher after the US retail sales yesterday. It comes alongside a shove lower in Treasury yields. 10-year yields are now down 5.5 bps to 3.871% and that is weighing on the greenback. At the same time, US futures are also looking shaky as S&P 500 futures are also down 0.1% currently.

Going back to USD/JPY, the drop comes as price action stalls at the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since July – seen at 149.42.

It’s going to be a tricky session for the dollar to navigate as traders will have to look to themselves to keep up the form from trading yesterday. There won’t be much on the economic calendar to help unlike in the past few days.

Looking to other dollar pairs, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0990 with large option expiries holding the pair near 1.1000. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.4% to test 1.2900 and USD/CHF down 0.6% to 0.8675 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Will make great efforts to enhance the sustained upward trend of the economy
• It is necessary to stick to goals and not to take a relaxed approach
• Need to expand domestic demand more vigorously, focus on boosting consumption
• Will explore new growth points for foreign trade
• To make differentiated policy support based on the needs of different groups of people

Once again, it’s all pretty words and the challenge for Beijing will be to implement all of this on the ground level. That will be what investors are looking for in terms of shoring up confidence. Since peaking in 2021, Chinese stocks have plunged considerably amid the government’s handling of the pandemic and there hasn’t been much to convince of a revival in domestic demand just yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.