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The US BLS was scheduled to publish benchmark revisions to non-farm payrolls at 10 am ET here: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

That hasn’t updated but we’re watching closely. It’s rare to have a hiccup in the release schedule so it’s not clear what’s going on.

However a separate report that covers the same timeline was released — the Country Employment and Wages report. It showed 153.6
million employed and a 1.3% rise year-over-year. That would be 1.97 million jobs, which is short of the 2.9 million reported by the BLS in the year ending in March (-930K).

What’s tough to square is that it also highlights 153.6
million employed, which is only slightly lower than the 153,757,000 reported in the March non-farm payrolls report.

More confusing yet, economist Christophe Barraud (who is usually bang on) also highlights the Country Employment and Wages report, which includes the Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages — which is what the benchmark revisions are based on.

He calculates 450K job losses, which would be something close but perhaps slightly higher than the consensus.

What’s jarring is that there was a pretty big move at 10 am in USD/JPY, so there are certainly people trying to trade this headline.

Finally, our friends over @newsquawk are report a rumour of -818K, citing a guy who said he called the BLS himself, though it would seem odd to me they would give that number out over the phone when it hadn’t yet been published online.

So what does that clear up? It leaves us with 4 different numbers:

• -930K
• -157K
• -450K
• -818K

The thing is, I don’t really think this number matters but it’s great to see the suspense and digging.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Target raised its full-year profit forecast and reported its first rise in quarterly comp sales in a year, leading to a nearly 15% jump in shares.

The moves underscore what Walmart said last week — that the consumer is fine.

Shares hit a four-month high as the company said discounts lured shoppers and boosted its profit forecast range to $9.00-$9.70 from $8.60-$9.60 per share.

Comp sales rose 2% in the quarter ending in August and the company said it saw improving trends across discretionary categories, particularly in apparel.

One thing I would caution there is the Ozempic effect. Consumers may be buying more clothes as they lose weight.

The company sees full-year comp sales flat to +2% but more likely in the lower half.

Overall though, the company certainly isn’t seeing a recessionary consumer.

Similarly, shares of TJX are up nearly 6% after raising its profit forecast and beating on revenue. The company said the recent quarter was off to a “strong start”.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday broke an 8-day rally in the S&P 500 but futures are pointing to a 0.2% rebound today.

A notable chart I highlighted yesterday was an 8-day rally in a rebound from a sharp selloff in the index in 2023. After a small setback in mid-November, it continued higher through year end. Momentum can be a powerful thing in markets, especially in this FOMO driven, 0DTE-fever market.

The risks on the calendar today include NFP revisions at 10 am and the Fed minutes at 2 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s tough to find consistent signals on the economy at the moment. There are certainly signs of weakening in things like housing and rate-sensitive areas like autos but the retail good sector looks strong, as highlighted by Walmart last week.

This week’s market is just as confusing. Equities are ripping and the market is acting as if a soft landing with immaculate disinflation is unfolding but at the same time, oil is on a four-day losing streak and copper has been struggling.

Drilling down into oil, the picture is also murky, as highlighted by a couple of charts. Jet fuel demand right now is higher than it’s been at any point in the summer over the past five years. Flying is above pre-pandemic levels — surely a good sign of consumer health.

On the flipside, diesel demand is now lower than it’s been at this time of year at any point in the past five years, and turning lower. That suggests the industrial and transport side of the economy is struggling.

I will be keeping a close watch on diesel but I think it’s clear what’s going to happen to jet fuel. Airlines throughout North America have warned of lower bookings and that’s had airline stocks struggling, in some cases back to 2020 levels.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 0.0%
• Prices y/y +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y

Raw materials price index:

• m/m % vs -1.4% prior
• y/y % vs +7.5% prior

I noted yesterday how we’re entering a period with oil prices down $10-$20 y/y.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday’s Canada CPI was light and since it was already released, I wouldn’t expect any market reaction from today’s PPI and raw materials price index.

The main event of the day comes at 10 am ET (1400 GMT) with BLS payrolls revisions for the year ending in March. I wrote a preview of it yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY nudges back above 146.00 mark in back and forth trading today
• What are the main events for today?
• BOJ expected to raise rates again by the end of this year – poll
• Japan observes record number of foreign visitors in July
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 August -10.1% vs +16.8% prior

Markets:

• CAD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 3.814%
• Gold down 0.1% to $2,511.69
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $73.25
• Bitcoin flat at $59,408

The theme this week is waiting on Thursday and today is no exception. It was once again another quiet session in Europe and in terms of news flow, this has arguably been the quietest week so far this year.

And in terms of market action, it was also rather slow. The dollar is keeping steadier after having fallen in the past two days. That’s not leaving much to work with, as major currencies stay tightly bound for the most part.

USD/JPY remains the most volatile among dollar pairs, with it falling to 144.92 in Asia before rebounding to around 146.00 currently.

Besides that, other major currencies aren’t doing much but the dollar remains vulnerable to further declines.

In the equities space, US indices snapped a run of eight straight day of gains yesterday. But US futures are holding just a touch higher as investors look to resume the upside run after the start of August hiccup.

The FOMC meeting minutes will be one to watch later in US trading. That aside, there might not be much until we get to trading tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +16.8%
• Market index 225.8 vs 251.3 prior
• Purchase index 130.6 vs 137.7 prior
• Refinance index 754.4 vs 889.3 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.50% vs 6.54% prior

After the surge in mortgage applications in the week before that, we are seeing things moderate back last week. The surge in activity in the week before owes much to the sharp drop in rates, with it weighing on the average rate of the most popular US home loan once again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Even though the lack of headlines in the last two days were befitting of a summer lull, there was some decent action in markets. But today, that seems to be absent with broader markets also struggling for any conviction. US futures are flat while bond yields are also little changed on the day. That isn’t giving FX traders much to work with as such.

USD/JPY remains caught in a whirlwind of sorts, trading in a roughly 130 pips range today. The pair is up 0.5% to near 146.00 and well off its low of 144.92 from Asia trading earlier.

Besides that, other major currencies are struggling to really get going today. The dollar has been weaker so far this week but is keeping steadier for now. That said, the ranges among dollar pairs are leaving a lot to be desired.

And as a whole, the dollar remains vulnerable to a further drop as highlighted yesterday here.

The focus this week continues to be on the PMI data tomorrow and then Fed chair Powell’s appearance in Jackson Hole just before the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The bounce comes as buyers look to be holding at the 145.00 mark, at least for the time being. That being said, even with the push back above 146.00, it doesn’t mean much from a technical perspective. Looking at the near-term chart, sellers are still well in control. That as price action rests below both the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages.

The dollar is holding somewhat steadier so far today but the ranges among other dollar pairs are relatively light. So, there isn’t much to scrutinise as the greenback has been much weaker in the past few sessions.

For now, equities are tentative while bond yields are also lightly changed. As such, it doesn’t really suggest much to the move we’re seeing in USD/JPY and the dollar in general so far today.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 22/08/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.29 million last month, surpassing the previous record in June of 3.14 million. The yen currency has strengthened considerably in the last month but that might not put off travelers immediately. That considering some travel plans are made months in advance.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.